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BuffaloWeather

Upstate/Eastern New York

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1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Storms coming at a good trajectory to not hit the lake breeze.

codnexlab.NEXRAD.BUF.N0Q.20200622.1846.024ani.gif

Update: storms approaching Buffalo are getting sheared apart and dried out by the breeze. The clouds look threatening, but the radar is showing convention crapping out in the metro.

I don’t want to say we’re getting shafted, because this is the typical outcome from June through August, but I was really hoping to get my water bill a break.

 

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21 minutes ago, WNash said:

Update: storms approaching Buffalo are getting sheared apart and dried out by the breeze. The clouds look threatening, but the radar is showing convention crapping out in the metro.

I don’t want to say we’re getting shafted, because this is the typical outcome from June through August, but I was really hoping to get my water bill a break.

 

Hmm not here thunder lightning and heavy rain for last 30 mins 

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20 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Hmm not here thunder lightning and heavy rain for last 30 mins 

I just checked the radar, and plenty of convection is getting through! We’re going to get a storm pretty soon. Those cells that fired up around Clarence look pretty potent as well.

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12 hours ago, WNash said:

I just checked the radar, and plenty of convection is getting through! We’re going to get a storm pretty soon. Those cells that fired up around Clarence look pretty potent as well.

Literally went all around my house. Poured to the NE, South, NW, you get the pic...received about a 30 second shower and that was it. Maybe this afternoon/evening will offer more widespread hope

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1 hour ago, vortmax said:

The atmosphere is warming up nicely...could get interesting in a couple hours.

I'm hoping that first batch of prefrontal garbage doesnt sap all the energy.  Was hoping it would fall apart and let the main front utilize all the CAPE.  Oh well, I guess I should just be happy with any amount of precip.  Hail would also be a major downer in my backyard as my gardens are looking about as good as they ever have with all the time and attention I've poured into it this year.  

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2 hours ago, DeltaT13 said:

I'm hoping that first batch of prefrontal garbage doesnt sap all the energy.  Was hoping it would fall apart and let the main front utilize all the CAPE.  Oh well, I guess I should just be happy with any amount of precip.  Hail would also be a major downer in my backyard as my gardens are looking about as good as they ever have with all the time and attention I've poured into it this year.  

I was thinking the pre-frontal stuff would strengthen more...hardly any lightning with it.

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BAD NEWS for snow lovers for this winter 2020-2021. Judah Cohen said in today twitter 

"With a quick look to next #winter interesting argument that last September's rare Southern Hemisphere sudden stratospheric warming disrupted the QBO causing it to skip over easterly phase and repeat a westerly phase, which could favor a stronger #polarvortex winter 2020/21."
 
I really hope we do not see another mild winter again like we did last year in the northeast. What do you guys think? 

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Pretty nasty as that storm ripped through here. I’d say 40-50mph gust and the loudest boom of thunder, immediately almost simultaneously followed by instant huge flash of lightning and power completely out. This was right around 415 and power is still out. I think a tree or power pole must have been struck within a couple hundred yards of here. I peaked my head out and looked all around to see if I could see a tree split or any smoke if a tree/power pole was hit but couldn’t see anything. Hopefully power comes back on soon because it’s mighty muggy out.

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Gates has gotten shafted particularly well the last 11 days. Pretty good donut hole that I’m smack in the middle of. Good grief.  Picked up .25” today. 
A3FFD6B9-2107-42B1-ACBF-A29B66F009E7.thumb.png.8eb33977e0907670eb8ba5ff529f129e.png

 

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32 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

Gates has gotten shafted particularly well the last 11 days. Pretty good donut hole that I’m smack in the middle of. Good grief.  Picked up .25” today. 
A3FFD6B9-2107-42B1-ACBF-A29B66F009E7.thumb.png.8eb33977e0907670eb8ba5ff529f129e.png

 

Yeah it rained here pretty much all afternoon. Has to be well over an inch of it. Felt like a late September cold front coming through with the low clouds and chilly temps.

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Finally got some rain Mon and Tues eve. I had over an inch of rain monday eve in a savage downpour with some impressive downdrafts with a briefly intense cell that popped up in the Syr area. Only about 0.2" last evening as the main frontal passage was weak sauce.  I'll take it, much needed. 

Gorgeous morning, lower humidity for a nice break.  Now let's get back to hot AF.

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1 hour ago, Syrmax said:

Finally got some rain Mon and Tues eve. I had over an inch of rain monday eve in a savage downpour with some impressive downdrafts with a briefly intense cell that popped up in the Syr area. Only about 0.2" last evening as the main frontal passage was weak sauce.  I'll take it, much needed. 

Gorgeous morning, lower humidity for a nice break.  Now let's get back to hot AF.

I was in the same thunderstorm Monday night that you were in.  I ended up with 0.70”, 0.68” fell in about 45 minutes between 7:30 and 8:15.  There was one lightning strike close by that produced a thunder clap so loud it sent our new dog running.  We couldn’t find her in the house for 15 minutes.  Finally we removed some framing on our bed and she was under it.  Last night’s showers only produced 0.15”.  We’ve gotten enough rain in the last several days that things aren’t completely dry.  Big change in airmass today, the lower humidity makes it almost seem cold especially with the breeze.

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4 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Only 14 locations received over an inch out of 190 cities on that list.  Looks like .5-1" for most, with a few isolated spots over 1" and a few spots well under a half inch, myself included.  I just barely scratched out a quarter inch.  Kind of underwhelming.  Here is hoping to more widespread rain this weekend. 

EW YORK

...Allegany County...
   2 SW Alfred           0.84   800 AM  6/24  ALERT
   4 SW West Almond      0.75   700 AM  6/24  CoCoRaHS
   Wellsville Airport    0.72   756 AM  6/24  ASOS
   Wellsville            0.70   500 AM  6/24  Co-Op Observer
   2 ENE Wellsville      0.69   700 AM  6/24  CoCoRaHS
   Rushford              0.59   800 AM  6/24  Co-Op Observer
   1 N Belmont           0.43   755 AM  6/24  NYSM
   Fillmore              0.42   824 AM  6/24  AWS
   3 NNW Wellsville      0.41   824 AM  6/24  AWS
   6 NW Grove            0.39   755 AM  6/24  NYSM
   Belmont               0.35   825 AM  6/24  AWS

...Cattaraugus County...
   1 ENE Olean           1.20   755 AM  6/24  NYSM
   Olean                 0.85   825 AM  6/24  AWS
   4 E Franklinville     0.76   700 AM  6/24  CoCoRaHS
   SSE Ischua            0.71   700 AM  6/24  CoCoRaHS
   Cattaraugus           0.57   800 AM  6/24  Co-Op Observer
   4 N Allegany          0.55   824 AM  6/24  AWS
   East Randolph         0.43   825 AM  6/24  AWS
   Salamanca             0.42   515 AM  6/24  HADS
   4 ESE Randolph        0.36   755 AM  6/24  NYSM
   Little Valley         0.36   700 AM  6/24  Co-Op Observer
   1 SW Franklinville    0.26   600 AM  6/24  HADS
   6 SSE Delevan         0.22   755 AM  6/24  NYSM

...Cayuga County...
   Port Byron            0.06   825 AM  6/24  AWS

...Chautauqua County...
   Mayville              1.77   600 AM  6/24  HADS
   1 SSE Silver Creek    1.13   700 AM  6/24  CoCoRaHS
   Silver Creek          1.06   730 AM  6/24  Co-Op Observer
   2 SW Fredonia         1.05   755 AM  6/24  NYSM
   1 WNW Fredonia        1.05   500 AM  6/24  CoCoRaHS
   Dunkirk Airport       0.93   753 AM  6/24  ASOS
   Dunkirk 1S            0.84   700 AM  6/24  Co-Op Observer
   1 SW Sinclairville    0.82   600 AM  6/24  HADS
   NE Clymer             0.79   755 AM  6/24  NYSM
   1 WSW Jamestown       0.73   800 AM  6/24  CoCoRaHS
   9 NE Wattsburg        0.68   600 AM  6/24  HADS
   2 E Jamestown         0.68   600 AM  6/24  CoCoRaHS
   Jamestown 4ENE        0.58   700 AM  6/24  Co-Op Observer
   WSW Falconer          0.56   700 AM  6/24  CoCoRaHS
   Brocton               0.46   824 AM  6/24  AWS
   1 N Gerry             0.41   750 AM  6/24  CoCoRaHS
   Frewsburg             0.40   825 AM  6/24  AWS
   5 NNW Jamestown       0.34   600 AM  6/24  CoCoRaHS
   Jamestown Airport     0.06   805 AM  6/24  AWOS

...Erie County...
   1 SSE Eden            1.28   700 AM  6/24  CoCoRaHS
   1 NNW Brant           1.27   755 AM  6/24  NYSM
   ENE East Aurora       1.11   700 AM  6/24  CoCoRaHS
   1 ENE Eden            1.08   825 AM  6/24  AWS
   3 NNE East Aurora     1.06   700 AM  6/24  CoCoRaHS
   2 NW West Seneca      1.05   430 PM  6/23  CoCoRaHS
   4 SSW East Aurora     1.01   755 AM  6/24  NYSM
   1 S Hamburg           0.97   700 AM  6/24  CoCoRaHS
   3 SSE East Aurora     0.95   720 AM  6/24  CoCoRaHS
   4 E Williamsville     0.94   700 AM  6/24  CoCoRaHS
   3 SE West Seneca      0.91   600 AM  6/24  CoCoRaHS
   North Collins         0.90   825 AM  6/24  AWS
   1 NNE West Seneca     0.87   600 AM  6/24  CoCoRaHS
   Wales                 0.86   700 AM  6/24  Co-Op Observer
   WSW Hamburg           0.82   700 AM  6/24  CoCoRaHS
   S Depew               0.79   600 AM  6/24  CoCoRaHS
   3 NE Cheektowaga      0.79   800 AM  6/24  CoCoRaHS
   3 WSW Elma            0.72   700 AM  6/24  CoCoRaHS
   3 E Williamsville     0.62   700 AM  6/24  CoCoRaHS
   1 N Clarence Center   0.62   700 AM  6/24  CoCoRaHS
   ESE Clarence Center   0.62   700 AM  6/24  CoCoRaHS
   2 SSW Blasdell        0.58   700 AM  6/24  CoCoRaHS
   2 NW Cheektowaga      0.57   700 AM  6/24  CoCoRaHS
   10 NE Buffalo         0.52   755 AM  6/24  NYSM
   2 SE Glenwood         0.49   739 AM  6/24  CoCoRaHS
   Buffalo Airport       0.48   754 AM  6/24  ASOS
   Lake View 1NE         0.42   800 AM  6/24  Co-Op Observer
   1 SSE Kenmore         0.34   825 AM  6/24  AWS
   ESE Kenmore           0.32   735 AM  6/24  CoCoRaHS
   Springville           0.31   826 AM  6/24  AWS
   1 NW Kenmore          0.31   700 AM  6/24  CoCoRaHS
   3 NE Tonawanda        0.19   600 AM  6/24  CoCoRaHS
   3 NE Lancaster        0.15  1000 AM  6/23  CoCoRaHS

...Genesee County...
   Alabama               0.67   725 AM  6/24  RAWS
   2 W Darien Center     0.58   600 AM  6/24  CoCoRaHS
   3 ENE Batavia         0.53   755 AM  6/24  NYSM
   3 WSW Batavia         0.40   800 AM  6/24  CoCoRaHS
   2 NE Stafford         0.37   700 AM  6/24  CoCoRaHS
   Le Roy 1E             0.35   800 AM  6/24  Co-Op Observer
   Le Roy                0.20   824 AM  6/24  AWS
   Batavia               0.10   756 AM  6/24  AWOS

...Jefferson County...
   2 S Cape Vincent      0.32   755 AM  6/24  NYSM
   1 S Wellesley Island  0.25   755 AM  6/24  NYSM
   Fort Drum Airfield    0.14   816 AM  6/24  AWOS
   1 NE Belleville       0.11   755 AM  6/24  NYSM
   ENE West Carthage     0.08   700 AM  6/24  CoCoRaHS
   Watertown Airport     0.07   756 AM  6/24  ASOS
   3 N Philadelphia      0.07   755 AM  6/24  NYSM

...Lewis County...
   1 NW Constableville   0.70   600 AM  6/24  CoCoRaHS
   Chases Lake           0.61   600 AM  6/24  Co-Op Observer
   1 SSW Glenfield       0.58   600 AM  6/24  CoCoRaHS
   11 ENE Croghan        0.58   755 AM  6/24  NYSM
   Highmarket            0.57   646 AM  6/24  Co-Op Observer
   5 WSW Harrisburg      0.49   755 AM  6/24  NYSM
   1 NW Glenfield        0.32   755 AM  6/24  NYSM
   1 E Osceola           0.29   755 AM  6/24  NYSM
   6 N Croghan           0.25   700 AM  6/24  CoCoRaHS
   4 S Carthage          0.18   755 AM  6/24  NYSM

...Livingston County...
   1 NW Avon             0.67   800 AM  6/24  HADS
   2 ESE York            0.66   755 AM  6/24  NYSM
   1 ENE Dansville       0.51   705 AM  6/24  CoCoRaHS
   Hemlock               0.50   945 PM  6/23  Co-Op Observer
   Dansville Airport     0.41   754 AM  6/24  ASOS
   2 S Dansville         0.25   700 AM  6/24  HADS
   Livonia               0.18   824 AM  6/24  AWS
   2 W Mount Morris      0.10   300 AM  6/24  HADS

...Monroe County...
   3 W Webster           1.37   516 AM  6/24  CoCoRaHS
   Webster 2NE           0.87   800 PM  6/23  Co-Op Observer
   1 WSW Brockport       0.74   755 AM  6/24  NYSM
   1 SE Hilton           0.57   700 AM  6/24  CoCoRaHS
   4 ENE Irondequoit     0.46   825 AM  6/24  AWS
   5 WNW Rochester       0.45   700 AM  6/24  CoCoRaHS
   6 ESE Rochester       0.39   600 AM  6/24  CoCoRaHS
   1 NW Rush             0.37   755 AM  6/24  NYSM
   Hilton                0.33   825 AM  6/24  AWS
   Fairport              0.26   828 AM  6/24  AWS
   2 NE Honeoye Falls    0.26   700 AM  6/24  CoCoRaHS
   NNW East Rochester    0.24   700 AM  6/24  CoCoRaHS
   Rochester Airport     0.23   754 AM  6/24  ASOS
   1 WNW Irondequoit     0.21   825 AM  6/24  AWS
   Pittsford             0.16   824 AM  6/24  AWS
   5 S Gates-North Gate  0.15   700 AM  6/24  HADS
   2 W Scottsville       0.12   700 AM  6/24  HADS
   Churchville           0.07   800 AM  6/24  HADS

...Niagara County...
   4 S Lockport          0.48   755 AM  6/24  CoCoRaHS
   2 NE North Tonawanda  0.34   500 AM  6/24  CoCoRaHS
   Niagara Falls         0.32   800 AM  6/24  Co-Op Observer
   North Tonawanda       0.32   700 AM  6/24  Co-Op Observer
   1 NE Lockport         0.26   700 AM  6/24  CoCoRaHS
   2 W Burt              0.25   755 AM  6/24  NYSM
   2 SSE Lockport        0.24   600 AM  6/24  CoCoRaHS
   Niagara Falls Airpor  0.22   753 AM  6/24  ASOS
   Middleport            0.20   825 AM  6/24  AWS
   Sanborn 4NE           0.14   700 AM  6/24  Co-Op Observer
   Wilson                0.12   825 AM  6/24  AWS

...Ontario County...
   Honeoye               0.52   645 AM  6/24  Co-Op Observer
   6 WNW Vine Valley     0.32   824 AM  6/24  AWS
   West Bloomfield 1S    0.32   700 AM  6/24  Co-Op Observer
   Bristol Harbour       0.13   700 AM  6/24  Co-Op Observer
   4 NNW Clifton Spring  0.11   755 AM  6/24  NYSM
   3 NE South Bristol    0.10   755 AM  6/24  NYSM
   3 S Canandaigua       0.10   800 AM  6/24  Co-Op Observer
   Geneva                0.05   700 AM  6/24  Co-Op Observer

...Orleans County...
   Albion                0.65   825 AM  6/24  AWS
   Medina                0.43   600 AM  6/24  Co-Op Observer
   4 E Medina            0.35   755 AM  6/24  NYSM
   6 N Holley            0.29   825 AM  6/24  AWS

...Oswego County...
   7 NNW Redfield        0.59   755 AM  6/24  NYSM
   3 NE Central Square   0.34   755 AM  6/24  NYSM
   Lacona                0.34   825 AM  6/24  AWS
   Mexico 2SW            0.21   700 AM  6/24  Co-Op Observer
   W Fulton              0.18   110 AM  6/24  CoCoRaHS
   4 SSE Lacona          0.16   700 AM  6/24  CoCoRaHS
   Oswego Airport        0.16   754 AM  6/24  ASOS
   2 WSW Oswego          0.12   755 AM  6/24  NYSM

...Wayne County...
   5 WNW Ontario         0.79   755 AM  6/24  NYSM
   5 NE Webster          0.68   700 AM  6/24  CoCoRaHS
   3 N Macedon           0.33   825 AM  6/24  AWS
   3 ESE Macedon         0.16   721 AM  6/24  CoCoRaHS
   Newark Lock 28B       0.09   700 AM  6/24  Co-Op Observer
   Palmyra               0.09   825 AM  6/24  AWS

...Wyoming County...
   Portageville 1W       0.53   600 AM  6/24  Co-Op Observer
   Yorkshire             0.34   825 AM  6/24  AWS
   5 NW Warsaw           0.25   755 AM  6/24  NYSM
   3 W Wyoming           0.23   700 AM  6/24  Co-Op Observer
   Warsaw 4W             0.22   700 AM  6/24  Co-Op Observer
   4 S Castile           0.08   800 AM  6/24  HADS

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2 hours ago, vortmax said:

Potential for some nice elevated warm-frontal storms overnight...

What time period are you looking at? I'm not seeing much but sure do love elevated convection.

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6 hours ago, DeltaT13 said:

What time period are you looking at? I'm not seeing much but sure do love elevated convection.

Lol, I'm thinking today is Friday. Been a busy week! BUF talking about potential MCS...we know how the last one turned out! 

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16 hours ago, vortmax said:

Lol, I'm thinking today is Friday. Been a busy week! BUF talking about potential MCS...we know how the last one turned out! 

I figured that must have been what you were referring too.  The last couple days of runs have slowly honed in on WNY as being right in the crosshairs for this MCS/low pressure system.  The latest run brings three distinct bands of heavy showers/storms through WNY from about dawn through 11am.  These things usually start to weaken a few hours after sunrise, so I hope we can squeeze it in before they fall apart.  Lots of variability in a setup like this, but as of right now we are sitting pretty for a good soaking and a decent light show.  Massive amounts of moisture to work with!

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2 hours ago, DeltaT13 said:

I figured that must have been what you were referring too.  The last couple days of runs have slowly honed in on WNY as being right in the crosshairs for this MCS/low pressure system.  The latest run brings three distinct bands of heavy showers/storms through WNY from about dawn through 11am.  These things usually start to weaken a few hours after sunrise, so I hope we can squeeze it in before they fall apart.  Lots of variability in a setup like this, but as of right now we are sitting pretty for a good soaking and a decent light show.  Massive amounts of moisture to work with!

Ugh, sounds dire for my early tee time tomorrow.  How about a monster MCS that rolls out of BUF by 7am. Everyone wins. 

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Just now, Buffalo Bumble said:

Ugh, sounds dire for my early tee time tomorrow.  How about a monster MCS that rolls out of BUF by 7am. Everyone wins. 

Interestingly, BUF is less than 1 deg above normal for June and less than an inch below normal for precip. So basically average for June so far. It’s felt much warmer and drier to me at least. 

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30 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

Ugh, sounds dire for my early tee time tomorrow.  How about a monster MCS that rolls out of BUF by 7am. Everyone wins. 

It's not looking good but these types of systems are notoriously finnicky to forecast.  There also appear to be sharp gradients to the precip fields and storms in the high res models so some places might get clobbered while 10 miles away is spared.  Keep an eye on the radar when you first wake up and you'll know if you are screwed or not as the system should be developed and ballistic by that time.  

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2 hours ago, DeltaT13 said:

It's not looking good but these types of systems are notoriously finnicky to forecast.  There also appear to be sharp gradients to the precip fields and storms in the high res models so some places might get clobbered while 10 miles away is spared.  Keep an eye on the radar when you first wake up and you'll know if you are screwed or not as the system should be developed and ballistic by that time.  

FFW in effect from BUF to ROC. Looks like we could see 1-2” on dry ground leading to higher than normal runoff.

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3 hours ago, WesterlyWx said:

FFW in effect from BUF to ROC. Looks like we could see 1-2” on dry ground leading to higher than normal runoff.

Bring it on, just don't wake the kiddos thunder! 

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