A-L-E-X Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 preciep......orhwxman says that sv maps might be a bit genrouse with liquid.....but this is fwiw DC .10 PHL .50+ NYC close to a inch liquid BOS 1.75+ not all snow So with this kind of track, western long island might be the best place to be-- all snow and at least 1" water equivalent.... now just to get this to hold lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Quick inland cities (SYR, ALB, State College, BTV??) Thanks! syr .25+ alb .50+ state college nada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 at hr 90 if the position is 50-75 miles west it's gonna make a huge differnce from central nc to dc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 So with this kind of track, western long island might be the best place to be-- all snow and at least 1" water equivalent.... now just to get this to hold lol. yes....and we shall see if it holds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ABE SnowObserver Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 How far back does it throw precip in Pa? Does eastern Pa do OK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 hr 108 just west of the benchmark 980 PHL-ORH this is a good hit....Bos has mixing issues WOW hr 108 964mb south of cape cod well inside the benchmark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Quick inland cities (SYR, ALB, State College, BTV??) Thanks! ALB around 0.5 SYR 0.1-0.15 State College - Barely 0.1 BTV - on the cusp of 0.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 syr .25+ alb .50+ state college nada Thanks! SYR needs about 6" more this month to set an all time monthly snowfall total (78.2.....I think).... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 It appears that the GFS and Euro are developing a consensus which ultimately may be a solution very near what they were showing late last week: mostly coastal snows and nothing extraordinary at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confuzzled Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 102 968mb NEngland looks to be getting nailed I don't have access to the euro yet but the 00z euro mos is showing the precip cut by MORE than half in CT. Boston still gets almost 2" though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 later folks lol 1:30am 1005 active user(s) (in the past 15 minutes) 571 members, 393 guests, 41 anonymous users | Show by: Last Click or Member Name Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 DC only get .10" from this? Crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 96hr ECMWF 700mb RH: ouch for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reale WX Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Thanks! SYR needs about 6" more this month to set an all time monthly snowfall total (78.2.....I think).... Your at 71.9"... and I know because Ive had to keep track that some areas around Syracuse have seen even more! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 yes....and we shall see if it holds Yea, and there's a large margin of error with a sharp cut off just to our west. These are the totals tombo came up with based on that model run-- pretty similar to the euro run from last night, although different track and speed: qpf dca .1 bwi .25 phl .75 nyc 1-1.1 ttn .8 abe .5 rdg .4 hazleton .25 acy 1.5 dov .75 mmu .75 eastern li 1.5-1.75 central li 1.25-1.5 western li 1-1.25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 DC only get .10" from this? Crazy. it happens.....phases late and precip is all from CCB. DC is too far displaced from the low as it deepens. reminds me of Dec. 31 2000....nice storm for Philly and points north. DC and Baltimore- not a flake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 DC only get .10" from this? Crazy. Watch out for these types of large areal maps. They make it ard to see tight gradients and they make DC look close to berylington. The 500mb low closes off over WV and the precip backs inot NJ, EPA. It misses DC by 150 miles, but it's hard to see on that map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 96hr ECMWF 700mb RH: ouch for DC Doesn't really make sense to me looking at where the low is. What's the reasoning on this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 DC only get .10" from this? Crazy. Something seems off there.....low just east of Delmarva....closed 500 low...but hardly any low level jet at 850 to funnel moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marked8 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 It looks like Doug Hill might not have been so crazy after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGQ Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The Dec 31 storm wasnt anything like this storm. This storm is tapping into so much gulf moisture unlike the DEC 31, so I think the Mid Atlantic cities will definitely see a storm. I just think its going to be the 4-8 inch type and not the 12-18 incher like PHI, NYC, BOS will possibly see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 It looks like Doug Hill might not have been so crazy after all. not sure what he said.....but when only ONE model shows a given solution, regardless of its track record- how can you ignore the pattern, and all other models. none were showing anything close to the Euro...the Canadian was closest but has steadily trended away from that for 3 runs now. GFS has come closer but its really just back to what it showed days ago- a scraper for the MA and a nice hit for parts of NE. Again this looks to be much like the December 2000 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 FWIW all but 3 of the GFS ensemble member are west of the OP and stronger with the coastal low through hr 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The Dec 31 storm wasnt anything like this storm. This storm is tapping into so much gulf moisture unlike the DEC 31, so I think the Mid Atlantic cities will definitely see a storm. I just think its going to be the 4-8 inch type and not the 12-18 incher like PHI, NYC, BOS will possibly see. we will see. but i see alot of similarities in the evolution as the models are depicting.....not really any front end warm advection precip, offshore track, precip all CCB driven. late phase and gets captured and pulled back in to give a nice hit for NE. coastal MA may do ok....dont see how DC does though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 not sure what he said.....but when only ONE model shows a given solution, regardless of its track record- how can you ignore the pattern, and all other models. none were showing anything close to the Euro...the Canadian was closest but has steadily trended away from that for 3 runs now. GFS has come closer but its really just back to what it showed days ago- a scraper for the MA and a nice hit for parts of NE. Again this looks to be much like the December 2000 storm. Not necessarily true... The Euro has its ensemble support as well as tonights gfs 0z ensemble mean/members.. At this point it still is hard to tell if its trending or has come up to its solution but seeing that we are seeing a continual shift to a more euroesque solution it seems to be shifting especially as we saw @ 12z today and with tonights 0z ensemble mean farther west than the 0z gfs OP... Another thing to remember is that this is still 100 hrs, any final solution will most likely be locked in within the next 24-48 hrs as this s/w that just entered into california makes its way east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Not necessarily true... The Euro has its ensemble support as well as tonights gfs 0z ensemble mean/members.. At this point it still is hard to tell if its trending or has come up to its solution but seeing that we are seeing a continual shift to a more euroesque solution it seems to be shifting especially as we saw @ 12z today and with tonights 0z ensemble mean farther west than the 0z gfs OP... Another thing to remember is that this is still 100 hrs, any final solution will most likely be locked in within the next 24-48 hrs as this s/w that just entered into california makes its way east... not saying this will be a total miss....just didn't buy into the all out historic bomb the euro was showing. that would be rare in any year...but in a la nina? could be nice hit for eastern VA, maybe parts of Delmarva in the MA. but looks better for Philly and north per the modeling right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Only because Hour 96 has updated and Hour 120 hadn't, on Raleigh, I can say Euro ensembles a bit faster than last nights 0Z ensembles, (a tad farther North), a tad farther West, and 5 mb stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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