COVID-19 Talk

[CAPE]

9 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

Yes i want to see the lockdowns end.  Perhaps not everywhere all at once.  But I’m open to business being reopened and people making the decision to go or not go over the next few weeks.  In VA we are not having a crisis like they are in NY or NJ.  I think it should be a measured approach, but i think we need to begin the process immediately.  

I think most people would like to get back to "normal", but that simply isn't going to happen immediately, outside of ass backwards places like Georgia. So it seems you will just have to be patient. You are solidly in the minority on this. If the model projections are close to correct, the process could begin (in phases) by the end of May, IMO.

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I think most people would like to get back to "normal", but that simply isn't going to happen immediately, outside of ass backwards places like Georgia. So it seems you will just have to be patient. You are solidly in the minority on this. If the model projections are close to correct, the process could begin (in phases) by the end of May, IMO.

DC/MD/VA likely start really getting back to "normal" between May 18th and 27th, IMO.

[SnowGolfBro]

10 minutes ago, H2O said:

Simple question.

Are the number of cases in VA increasing or decreasing day to day?  Comparing VA to the WORST place hit by this is lol

I’m not sure.  I know as of now we have 324 deaths in the state.  I know our hospitals and urgent cares are nowhere close to capacity or overwhelmed by the virus in VA.  Again, I’m not saying tomorrow we wave a magic wand and start acting like nothing is happening.  My opinion is we should begin easing lockdown protocols.  Maybe start with opening up parks and playgrounds this week.  Then opening up hair salons, retail stores, golf courses etc next week.  Then opening up restaurants the following week after that.  So we have a gradual easing back to normalcy.

[mappy]

3 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

I’m not sure.  I know as of now we have 324 deaths in the state.  I know our hospitals and urgent cares are nowhere close to capacity or overwhelmed by the virus in VA.  Again, I’m not saying tomorrow we wave a magic wand and start acting like nothing is happening.  My opinion is we should begin easing lockdown protocols.  Maybe start with opening up parks and playgrounds this week.  Then opening up hair salons, retail stores, golf courses etc next week.  Then opening up restaurants the following week after that.  So we have a gradual easing back to normalcy.

your suggestions are not outlandish, but i think your time table is. This week is too soon. Next week is too soon. The week after is too soon. I know you don't agree, but sadly thats the case. You open up this week, or next, or the week after, and you've got a huge problem on your hands. As we keep trying to tell you.

[Wonderdog]

7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

DC/MD/VA likely start really getting back to "normal" between May 18th and 27th, IMO.

I'd like May 15 to be the date in VA. Gives us 3 more weeks to come down the backside of the curve plus we will have seen how GA does. Then we can assess.

[ErinInTheSky]

Just now, mappy said:

your suggestions are not outlandish, but i think your time table is. This week is too soon. Next week is too soon. The week after is too soon. I know you don't agree, but sadly thats the case. You open up this week, or next, or the week after, and you've got a huge problem on your hands. As we keep trying to tell you.

Especially hair salons. Hair salons next week is Georgia level.

[ErinInTheSky]

So here's the real question. If May 15 comes along, and we see that Georgia is just absolutely exploding in cases... then what?

[H2O]

6 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

I’m not sure.  I know as of now we have 324 deaths in the state.  I know our hospitals and urgent cares are nowhere close to capacity or overwhelmed by the virus in VA.  Again, I’m not saying tomorrow we wave a magic wand and start acting like nothing is happening.  My opinion is we should begin easing lockdown protocols.  Maybe start with opening up parks and playgrounds this week.  Then opening up hair salons, retail stores, golf courses etc next week.  Then opening up restaurants the following week after that.  So we have a gradual easing back to normalcy.

For what reason would the hospitals and ECs NOT be overwhelmed right now? Might it be that the reason is the restrictions that HAVE been in place for a while has helped mitigate mass numbers like NY/NJ?

So to use that as reason to open back up even if slowly just defeats all the effort to limit the spread of the virus.  It is counter intuitive to open things back up when cases in VA have not started to fall in any sort of noticeable fashion.

What you "feel" is right doesn't replace or make more important the recommendations by people who know what we are dealing with.

 

Everything is weird and its not right and life is turned upside down.  But sit and think for a min.  Are you really, truly suffering?  Do you have health and security? Is the desire to go back to your version of normal so great that common sense is dismissed?

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, Wonderdog said:

I'd like May 15 to be the date in VA. Gives us 3 more weeks to come down the backside of the curve plus we will have seen how GA does. Then we can assess.

Almost certain not to happen.  MD/VA/DC started working on our recovery and reconstitution plans on Day 1 of this event, in public health/emergency management you start working on recovery and demobilization as soon as you shift into response mode.  A lot of re-opening hinges on ensuring a stable supply chain for things like cleaning supplies, testing and PPE. A steady, but safe way to open things up is go local (park playgrounds, hair salons, furniture stores)...wait 10-17 days for incubation/testing for community spread....then focus on regional (mass transit like MARC/VRE/WMATA)....wait 10-17 days for incubation/testing for community spread....then large mass gatherings like beaches and outdoor arenas.  

[H2O]

4 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

I'd like May 15 to be the date in VA. Gives us 3 more weeks to come down the backside of the curve plus we will have seen how GA does. Then we can assess.

By most guesses that is probably too soon.  We will be into the shutdown by about 2 months and its still not clear how long places that have done this can be affected by the curve flattening.

[Wonderdog]

3 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

So here's the real question. If May 15 comes along, and we see that Georgia is just absolutely exploding in cases... then what?

At some point we have to return to work. Remember that the vast vast majority get a mild case. People will be wearing masks and practicing some semblance of social distancing going forward imo.

[SnowGolfBro]

Just now, H2O said:

For what reason would the hospitals and ECs NOT be overwhelmed right now? Might it be that the reason is the restrictions that HAVE been in place for a while has helped mitigate mass numbers like NY/NJ?

So to use that as reason to open back up even if slowly just defeats all the effort to limit the spread of the virus.  It is counter intuitive to open things back up when cases in VA have not started to fall in any sort of noticeable fashion.

What you "feel" is right doesn't replace or make more important the recommendations by people who know what we are dealing with.

 

Everything is weird and its not right and life is turned upside down.  But sit and think for a min.  Are you really, truly suffering?  Do you have health and security? Is the desire to go back to your version of normal so great that common sense is dismissed?

Im a reasonable guy.  I know from my interactions with friends and family that they are fed up with the lockdowns.  They have lost jobs, savings and in some cases hope.  I would be okay if they put a restart date/plan out to the public even if that plan didn’t go into action until May 15 for example.  I’m not it in a terrible position.  I still have my job, albeit with a pay cut due to the virus, and my health.  I’m not pushing the desire to “open back up” for selfish reasons.  Not by a long shot.  It’s for my family and friends who are all suffering both financially and mentally.  

[Wonderdog]

1 minute ago, H2O said:

By most guesses that is probably too soon.  We will be into the shutdown by about 2 months and its still not clear how long places that have done this can be affected by the curve flattening.

Our economy can't entirely be contingent upon guesses. Facts matter. We'll see.

[H2O]

3 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Our economy can't entirely be contingent upon guesses. Facts matter. We'll see.

But you are guessing as well.  Call it wishing if you want.  if the facts say May 15 is too soon will you accept that?

[Maestrobjwa]

6 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

Im a reasonable guy.  I know from my interactions with friends and family that they are fed up with the lockdowns.  They have lost jobs, savings and in some cases hope.  I would be okay if they put a restart date/plan out to the public even if that plan didn’t go into action until May 15 for example.  I’m not it in a terrible position.  I still have my job, albeit with a pay cut due to the virus, and my health.  I’m not pushing the desire to “open back up” for selfish reasons.  Not by a long shot.  It’s for my family and friends who are all suffering both financially and mentally.  

Can understand that. But the harsh reality is...when it comes to a timetable...there is a certain degree of this whole situation that we simply don't have any control over. We are already doing what we can to try and diminish the spread and get the numbers down. But right now that's all we can do...we cannot control exactly how fast cases finally start to go down and get to phase 1 status. 

The reality of the virus doesn't change just because the economy is hurting and we wanna turn the switch back on. It's a frustrating position to be in for so many people, no doubt! It's an awful position to be in! But we have to get to the point where, when we really start to open things up, we are not choosing the economy over human safety. It can't be...economy AND safety is what needs to happen. Safety has to be paramount...the safety piece is contingent on the numbers and when they start to fall at a consistent rate. 

It's a big difference between when we'd PREFER to open up and when we actually SHOULD...and unfortunately the SHOULD criteria hasn't been met yet, imo. Economy is gonna hurt, but opening too soon might end up adding on top of that hurt worse than it already is...

[Wonderdog]

Just now, H2O said:

But you are guessing as well.  Call it wishing if you want.  if the facts say May 15 is too soon will you accept that?

Everyone is guessing. How much a reduction of deaths for each governor will prompt them to gradually begin to open things up is the question. 

[SnowGolfBro]

Just now, H2O said:

But you are guessing as well.  Call it wishing if you want.  if the facts say May 15 is too soon will you accept that?

I think we need to set some baselines for what we need to see to agree on when we should open up.  Let’s use VA as an example. What number of daily deaths/new cases is reasonable in your opinion to open back up? Is it zero, is it 5 deaths a day, 10, 20 etc.  You may look at the facts on a specified date and say it’s too soon and i may think we waited too long.  My point is we need some agreement on what levels of the virus/deaths is acceptable vs what warrants additional lockdowns.

[Inverted_Trough]

There are federal guidelines with objective, quantifiable measures for transitioning between Phases 1 through 3.  Unfortunately I think many states are not going to use the guidelines and just do what they want.  Makes the guidelines rather pointless.  I could sense Dr. Birx's frustration yesterday.

[Wonderdog]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Can understand that. But the harsh reality is...when it comes to a timetable...there is a certain degree of this whole situation that we simply don't have any control over. We are already doing what we can to try and diminish the spread and get the numbers down. But right now that's all we can do...we cannot control exactly how fast cases finally start to go down and get to phase 1 status. 

The reality of the virus doesn't change just because the economy is hurting and we wanna turn the switch back on. It's a frustrating position to be in for so many people, no doubt! But we have to get to the point where, when we really start to open things up, we are not choosing the economy over human safety. Safety has to be paramount...the safety piece is contingent on the numbers and when they start to fall at a consistent rate.

It's a big difference between when we'd PREFER to open up and when we actually SHOULD...and unfortunately the SHOULD criteria hasn't been met yet, imo.

What would be your criteria?

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, Wonderdog said:

Everyone is guessing. How much a reduction of deaths for each governor will prompt them to gradually begin to open things up is the question. 

It is all guessing when it comes to setting dates and timetables...which is why we have to follow the numbers as they come and not try to jump too far ahead too soon!

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, Wonderdog said:

What would be your criteria?

That the decrease in deaths, hospitalizations, cases would meet the criteria set forth in the federal guidelines for the various phases. If Fauci, Birx, and the rest of the team of experts put that together, I think it is a good model to follow.

[Eskimo Joe]

On the flip side of a sane re-opening process:

 

[SnowGolfBro]

3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Can understand that. But the harsh reality is...when it comes to a timetable...there is a certain degree of this whole situation that we simply don't have any control over. We are already doing what we can to try and diminish the spread and get the numbers down. But right now that's all we can do...we cannot control exactly how fast cases finally start to go down and get to phase 1 status. 

The reality of the virus doesn't change just because the economy is hurting and we wanna turn the switch back on. It's a frustrating position to be in for so many people, no doubt! It's an awful position to be in! But we have to get to the point where, when we really start to open things up, we are not choosing the economy over human safety. It can't be...economy AND safety is what needs to happen. Safety has to be paramount...the safety piece is contingent on the numbers and when they start to fall at a consistent rate. 

It's a big difference between when we'd PREFER to open up and when we actually SHOULD...and unfortunately the SHOULD criteria hasn't been met yet, imo. Economy is gonna hurt, but opening too soon might end up adding on top of that hurt worse than it already is...

What is the SHOULD criteria in your opinion?

[mappy]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

That the decrease in deaths, hospitalizations, cases would meet the criteria set forth in the federal guidelines for the various phases. If Fauci, Birx, and the rest of the team of experts put that together, I think it is a good model to follow.

THIS

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

What is the SHOULD criteria in your opinion?

See above comment 

[MDScot]

25 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

So here's the real question. If May 15 comes along, and we see that Georgia is just absolutely exploding in cases... then what?

Or if May 5th comes along and Georgia is doing as well or as bad as MD and VA ?  ... then what?

[Stormpc]

2 minutes ago, wxtrix said:

the U of Washington model says DC/VA/MD can move to the next phase of more relaxed social distancing the first week of June but that is contingent on widespread testing and tracing, isolation, and limited gatherings.

That's perfectly acceptable and what we were all thinking five and six weeks ago when the quarantines began. I think that's amongst the most realistic dates. Only problem being, not sure we can reach those contingencies.

[Wonderdog]

Just now, Stormpc said:

That's perfectly acceptable and what we were all thinking five and six weeks ago when the quarantines began. I think that's amongst the most realistic dates. Only problem being, not sure we can reach those contingencies.

I don't think most governors will wait till June 1. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

3 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

I don't think most governors will wait till June 1. 

States like Maryland that have active cases in the 10s of thousands probably will IMO.  States with lower numbers might feel like they have a little more latitude. 
 

ETA: of course we know that Florida, Texas, etc, ain’t gonn wait for nothin 

[Wonderdog]

Just now, DCTeacherman said:

States like Maryland that have active cases in the 10s of thousands probably will IMO.  States with lower numbers might feel like they have a little more latitude. 

Right. NY/NJ area is the outlier. Plus MA and MD. Deaths and hospitalizations are key, not cases imo.