COVID-19 Talk

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

4 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

Smart move Governor Hogan.  This one never made sense to me in the first place. If you walk the golf course u never have to get within 20 feet of anybody.  Let alone 6 feet

Yeah golf is low hanging fruit and popular enough it’ll do a lot for peoples morale to be able to get back on the course.  It’s certainly no worse of a risk than people walking/running/biking on trails 

[aldie 22]

Just now, DCTeacherman said:

Yeah golf is low hanging fruit and popular enough it’ll do a lot for peoples morale to be able to get back on the course.  It’s certainly no worse of a risk than people walking/running/biking on trails 

Virginia golf courses never closed

[SnowGolfBro]

8 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Virginia golf courses never closed

They closed a lot of the county run and state run courses.  But yeah general public and private courses have been open.  Albeit with fairly strict social distancing.

[SnowGolfBro]

9 minutes ago, wxtrix said:

I live on a golf course.  people cluster together on the holes all day long.  social distancing is a joke to them.

Most places I’ve played people have been doing a good job of social distancing.  I play with my kids and wife.  We hug and high five on the course.  Which from a distance could look bad, but you don’t social distance from your wife and kids unless you want bigger problems lol

[mappy]

1 hour ago, SnowGolfBro said:

Smart move Governor Hogan.  This one never made sense to me in the first place. If you walk the golf course u never have to get within 20 feet of anybody.  Let alone 6 feet

... you don't even know what he is going to suggest? how can you say its a smart move already?

[ErinInTheSky]

New York numbers were super interesting. They sponsored an antibody study and essentially found 13.9% of the state has antibodies. 

With 20,792 deaths that comes out to an IFR of 0.8%, though Cuomo said that number is likely to rise as many people who were infected in the last 2 weeks or so will die down the line.

But that IFR is about what has been reported in countries that do massive testing. Definitely much much higher than the flu. Herd immunity would require 85% to be infected with an R0 of 5.5, so that would lead to 128k deaths in New York alone if we went through herd immunity.

Usual caveats from Cuomo and other studies like this - antibody tests could have false negatives or positives that would change the numbers dramatically, this is just a snapshot taken of people at grocery stores so by definition more willing to go out, and it's only the initial results.

[SnowGolfBro]

6 minutes ago, mappy said:

... you don't even know what he is going to suggest? how can you say its a smart move already?

I read the tweet.  Sounds like they are going to open the courses with no restaurant service.  That makes sense.  Some places (like gyms, indoor sports arenas, restaurants) seem like they are obvious places that would be harder to open and maintain some social distance.  Playing golf is no different than going out to exercise or jogging or walking your dog in my opinion.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

 

[ErinInTheSky]

Just now, DCTeacherman said:

 

Yup. This is fascinating. It also shows herd immunity would be pretty brutal for New York. They've had 20,792 casualties at 13.9% positive. 

[mappy]

12 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

I read the tweet.  Sounds like they are going to open the courses with no restaurant service.  That makes sense.  Some places (like gyms, indoor sports arenas, restaurants) seem like they are obvious places that would be harder to open and maintain some social distance.  Playing golf is no different than going out to exercise or jogging or walking your dog in my opinion.

... it doesn't sound like anything specific other than golfers may be happy with the news. we can make assumptions, but until then we don't know what there is to be happy about. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, supernovasky said:

Yup. This is fascinating. It also shows herd immunity would be pretty brutal for New York. They've had 20,792 casualties at 13.9% positive. 

Yes it’s bad news if you were hoping for herd immunity to be viable. Gonna be weird when 20% of nyc doesn’t have to social distance. There will be 2 classes of people.

[ErinInTheSky]

There is so much you can do with this New York data. For instance, if the IFR of the disease is 0.8%, you can anticipate that if 20% of the country gets it (65,600,000), it would lead to 524k deaths. And that's just 20%, not nearly herd immunity.

[ErinInTheSky]

An IFR of 0.8% by the way is perfectly harmonious with a lot of data out of China and South Korea.

[ErinInTheSky]

This study published last month estimated 0.7%, so New York is basically confirming some of this stuff.

 

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7/fulltext

[SnowGolfBro]

11 minutes ago, mappy said:

... it doesn't sound like anything specific other than golfers may be happy with the news. we can make assumptions, but until then we don't know what there is to be happy about. 

No golfer would be happy without golf so i think that’s a reasonable assumption.  Otherwise i won’t comment on it until we hear more.  But it sounds like my yearly Bulle Rock trip may be back on!

[Yeoman]

14 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

Yup. This is fascinating. It also shows herd immunity would be pretty brutal for New York. They've had 20,792 casualties at 13.9% positive. 

Who is reporting 20K+ deaths in NY?

https://www.businessinsider.com/usns-comfort-leaving-nyc-few-coronavirus-patients-three-weeks-2020-4

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, Yeoman said:

Who is reporting 20K+ deaths in NY?

https://www.businessinsider.com/usns-comfort-leaving-nyc-few-coronavirus-patients-three-weeks-2020-4

If you add up the confirmed deaths which are around 15k and the probable deaths, which are around 5k, it ends up being over 20k.

[ErinInTheSky]

Just now, Yeoman said:

Who is reporting 20K+ deaths in NY?

https://www.businessinsider.com/usns-comfort-leaving-nyc-few-coronavirus-patients-three-weeks-2020-4

Worldometers and JHU. Both are including "probable deaths"

Without ANY probable deaths being classified as COVID, you're still at 0.5%. But many if not most are likely COVID deaths at home, hence why they are reported as "probable".

Likewise, many of those being tested have yet to die, which will push the rate up. 

This yields a range of 0.5-1% IFR, which... is exactly what most studies have reported, and which shows how bad herd immunity really is.

[jaydreb]

48 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

New York numbers were super interesting. They sponsored an antibody study and essentially found 13.9% of the state has antibodies. 

With 20,792 deaths that comes out to an IFR of 0.8%, though Cuomo said that number is likely to rise as many people who were infected in the last 2 weeks or so will die down the line.

But that IFR is about what has been reported in countries that do massive testing. Definitely much much higher than the flu. Herd immunity would require 85% to be infected with an R0 of 5.5, so that would lead to 128k deaths in New York alone if we went through herd immunity.

Usual caveats from Cuomo and other studies like this - antibody tests could have false negatives or positives that would change the numbers dramatically, this is just a snapshot taken of people at grocery stores so by definition more willing to go out, and it's only the initial results.

Those are actually major caveats.  We don’t know how reliable these antibody tests are.   It’s possible that they are picking up on antibodies from other coronaviruses.  We also don’t know whether the presence of antibodies (and what level of antobodies) confers immunity and, if so, for how long.  

[ErinInTheSky]

Just now, jaydreb said:

Those are actually major caveats.  We don’t know how reliable these antibody tests are.   It’s possible that they are picking up on antibodies from other coronaviruses.  We also don’t know whether the presence of antibodies (and what level of antobodies) confers immunity and, if so, for how long.  

Oh yes absolutely. Seroprevalence testing right now is VERY iffy. I read a post from a scientist yesterday that said ALL antibody tests come with a disclaimer "OC43, HKU1, 229E, NL63 coronaviruses may also trigger a positive result". 

 

Two of those are basically viruses causing the common cold.

[jaydreb]

14 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

Oh yes absolutely. Seroprevalence testing right now is VERY iffy. I read a post from a scientist yesterday that said ALL antibody tests come with a disclaimer "OC43, HKU1, 229E, NL63 coronaviruses may also trigger a positive result". 

 

Two of those are basically viruses causing the common cold.

Yep.  I may have mentioned that my sister and her family had confirmed cases of coronavirus back in March and have since recovered.   My sister and her husband volunteered to donate plasma to Mt. Sinai hospital as part of their antibody treatment study.  The first step in that process was an antibody test.  They both tested positive for antibodies.  My sister’s antibody titer level was 80.  Her husbands was 960!  Since the threshold for donating is 320, only he is eligible to donate.  The interesting thing is that he barely had any symptoms other than loss of taste/smell   My sister was pretty sick for a few days, but still had a pretty mild case all things considered   

My sister of course has not been able to get any answers as to whether she might have immunity, whether her antibody levels could increase, whether she has any less immunity than her husband, etc.  The test results also had the disclaimer you mentioned about other coronaviruses.  In this case we know they had the coronavirus because of a positive coronavirus test.  

[mappy]

33 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

No golfer would be happy without golf so i think that’s a reasonable assumption.  Otherwise i won’t comment on it until we hear more.  But it sounds like my yearly Bulle Rock trip may be back on!

well, early congrats to you, if that's the case. I wonder if they will check licenses at the club house, make sure only MD residents are the ones coming to play?

[Eskimo Joe]

3 hours ago, DCTeacherman said:

And even worse that was only on ~ 3,500 tests so % positive increased a little, 27%.  

The past two days are definitely steps backward for MD.  I was hoping to decrease in hospitalizations and COVID EMS dispatches was true sign of us flattening this out, but it appears it's a bit too early of a blip.

[ErinInTheSky]

Geneva study just released shows 0.65 (0.5-1.1%) https://www.hug-ge.ch/medias/communique-presse/seroprevalence-covid-19-premiere-estimation

 

So I think we're finally approaching what the true infection fatality rate of COVID is, somewhere between 0.5% and 1.1%. Many times more than the flu, and with an 85% susceptible population rather than the usual 5-8%, so worse on both the fatality and the transmissibility front by an order of magnitude.

 

Herd immunity (85% catching it) would be 2,000,000+ dead. Not surprisingly, this is where the 2,000,000 number came from - herd immunity if left to spread uninhibited in the USA.

 

This also shows that social distancing measures work and it's a testament to our distancing that we've been able to keep the deaths so low.

[SnowGolfBro]

38 minutes ago, mappy said:

well, early congrats to you, if that's the case. I wonder if they will check licenses at the club house, make sure only MD residents are the ones coming to play?

That’s an interesting question. Perhaps early on.  But maybe by summer they would loosen the restriction.  I guess wait to see what Hogan announces.  

[mappy]

8 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

That’s an interesting question. Perhaps early on.  But maybe by summer they would loosen the restriction.  I guess wait to see what Hogan announces.  

uh, how about that? waiting to see. who knew!

[ErinInTheSky]

Just now, mappy said:

uh, how about that? waiting to see. who knew!

But but but how else can we find stuff to talk about here without rampant speculation?

[mappy]

Just now, supernovasky said:

But but but how else can we find stuff to talk about here without rampant speculation?

to be fair, thats all we really have at this point. but i wouldn't go as far as high-fiving myself for assuming a governor in another state is going to say what you want to hear

[Eskimo Joe]

This unprecedented by FEMA, should never happen, and will be a mark of shame for the field as a whole for years. It's also happened to supplies shipped to Delaware which is total BS.

https://www.wptv.com/news/state/masks-meant-for-miami-dade-firefighters-confiscated-by-feds

[nw baltimore wx]

44 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

This unprecedented by FEMA, should never happen, and will be a mark of shame for the field as a whole for years. It's also happened to supplies shipped to Delaware which is total BS.

https://www.wptv.com/news/state/masks-meant-for-miami-dade-firefighters-confiscated-by-feds

I’m confused. Wasn’t it the federal government that said it was the state's responsibility to gather their own covid equipment? I realize Miami-Dade isn’t a state but why the contradiction?