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COVID-19 Talk

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18 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

Your first Sunday huh? (Sunday numbers have become something of a joke)

Yeah but they’re down compared to last Sunday’s, which is good. 

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Just now, DCTeacherman said:

Yeah but they’re down compared to last Sunday’s, which is good. 

Of course. I just have stopped giving myself much hope from Sunday reports lol.

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1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Don't forget about the weekend lag and such...I'm not putting much stock in it myself.

Over 24k cases on a Sunday is high

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2 hours ago, supernovasky said:

Of course. I just have stopped giving myself much hope from Sunday reports lol.

Yeah. Considering the number of critical/serious patients have slightly increased or stayed put I wouldn’t put a ton of stock in it either on a 1 day report 

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1 minute ago, Baltimorewx said:

Yeah. Considering the number of critical/serious patients have slightly increased or stayed put I wouldn’t put a ton of stock in it either on a 1 day report 

Last Sunday was 1570 deaths and we’re well below that, hopefully tomorrow will be less than last Monday and so on, and then we can say for sure we’re on the downswing. 

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39 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Italy’s reopening plans

 

Interesting. I was trying to wrap my head around restaurants vs. hairdressers/barbers. Like which one would be worse for spreading?

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9 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Interesting. I was trying to wrap my head around restaurants vs. hairdressers/barbers. Like which one would be worse for spreading?

imo it would be restaurants, because you have to take your mask off at some point to eat.  But there are various things in play.  I think there could be more of a demand for salons/barbershops than dining in at a restaurant at this point.

I'm not a fan of these 2 week periods.  Not sure it is long enough to capture the trends since people won't pour into these places on day 1.  I understand the desire to reopen but I wonder if a 1 month period in between phases would be a better idea.  

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Just now, Hoosier said:

imo it would be restaurants, because you have to take your mask off at some point to eat.  But there are various things in play.  I think there could be more of a demand for salons/barbershops than dining in at a restaurant at this point.

I'm not a fan of these 2 week periods.  Not sure it is long enough to capture the trends since people won't pour into these places on day 1.  I understand the desire to reopen but I wonder if a 1 month period in between phases would be a better idea.  

I think barbers/hairdressers could just allow one client at a time in the shop, and the worker and customer could wear masks.  Restaurants would have more people - workers and customers.  

I agree there should be enough spacing between the phases to allow for processing whether they are causing an increase in cases.  

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1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Over 24k cases on a Sunday is high

But were more tests performed? From what I've read there has been an increase in testing thus the increase in cases. The CDC site still shows the % new cases  unchanged.....actually irt public testing it has gotten higher which isnt really a good signal.

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1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

But were more tests performed? From what I've read there has been an increase in testing thus the increase in cases. The CDC site still shows the % new cases  unchanged.....actually irt public testing it has gotten higher which isnt really a good signal.

Yes but  not as much as during the week 

 

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On 4/24/2020 at 3:54 PM, MillvilleWx said:

Yeah Jeb. More people been leaving out here too since oil has been taking a massive hit recently. CV and the OPEC/Russia feud timed together for the perfect storm of sorts. Anyway, I think we'll be okay out here. Back home in MD is a different story. I have friends on the front lines. Said seeing people deteriorate like they are is awful. I have a friend who's a respiratory therapist at Sinai in Baltimore. She's intubated more people in 1 month than she has in the past 2 years combined, including some younger people in their 30's. Best believe we want none of that. Stay safe down there! My wife and I will be doing a road trip tomorrow to check out the Bluebonnets. Gets us out of the apartment and we'll be in the car on our journey. I'm looking forward to seeing them :)

These are definitely very concerning times. I have a good mask (but not an N 95 though) and a lot of hand sanitizer. I am definitely distancing. I have a feeling we are going to be doing this for quite a while as we try to slow the spread. I hope your friend in MD stays safe.

Those Bluebonnets are nice! I got a ton of em right in my own yard down here! Enjoy them on your road trip! Be very very careful!

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4 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I'm just catching up, but my take on masks...

Masks are a lot like religion.  It can't hurt, and God help you if you don't and you're wrong.

I dont take a chance. It's already summer hot down here, but I wear the mask. I'd rather wear a hot mask for a while, then catch COVID then end up on one of those ventilators for weeks...............

I am carrying around a bottle of hand sanitizer too. Can't hurt to keep putting it on my hands when in public. Just think about how many people touch a fueling nozzle at the gas station. I sanitize my hands a LOT!!!!!!!! I'll happily gamble with my money about a year from now when COVID is gone. But I WON'T gamble with my LIFE!

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32 minutes ago, Jebman said:

I dont take a chance. It's already summer hot down here, but I wear the mask. I'd rather wear a hot mask for a while, then catch COVID then end up on one of those ventilators for weeks...............

I am carrying around a bottle of hand sanitizer too. Can't hurt to keep putting it on my hands when in public. Just think about how many people touch a fueling nozzle at the gas station. I sanitize my hands a LOT!!!!!!!! I'll happily gamble with my money about a year from now when COVID is gone. But I WON'T gamble with my LIFE!

*crazy breathing* WHERE DID YOU FIND THAT?? *pant pant*

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21 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

This is a very fair point...but let me explain where my "animosity" comes from.  It's not the "view".  But I can see how it could be interpreted that way.  For me...I get snippy and hostile when someone is trying to BS me, and its insulting to my intelligence.  I don't mind an opposing point of view...I do mind when that person is trying to manipulate facts to support their argument and thinks I am stupid enough to not realize it.  I will give you a specific example.  The other day someone was citing a New York study.  But I had already read the same study.  So when they intentionally manipulated the results to skew the argument I was aware of that fact.  First they used the State level numbers for infections with the city numbers for fatalities to skew the mortality rate.  Then they made a patently false statement about what statistical significance is.   Then they used the absolute lowest estimated possible mortality rate for Covid along with the absolute highest possible flu mortality in a comparison.   When people do stuff like that I do get hostile because its insulting.  I am not stupid, and obviously they think I am if they think that kind of data manipulation will work.  But my hostility is not towards their point of view, its towards their dishonest presentation of their argument.  There have been others who have made arguments on that side of the ledger who I have not said a single hostile comment towards.  So long as people are making their arguments with sound logic and with intellectual integrity I am open and willing to amicably discuss and debate any point of view.  But when people are trying to "get one over" on me...I do become hostile.  

your point is valid.. I think I did mistakenly use the state numbers.. but that wasnt on purpose.  One thing that we can assume however is that if the antibody test showed 1 in 5 people (~1.6 million) infected n NYC a couple of weeks ago.. then this number should have grown geometrically since then (hopefully at least)

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10 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

*crazy breathing* WHERE DID YOU FIND THAT?? *pant pant*

My father was able to get a box of old government pandemic response kits from previous outbreaks in Asia.  I think from one of his contacts in government from when he worked at the FED.  Some of the stuff is slightly expired but its way better than having nothing.  The kits include hand sanitizer, masks, and gloves.  

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11 minutes ago, 40westwx said:

your point is valid.. I think I did mistakenly use the state numbers.. but that wasnt on purpose.  One thing that we can assume however is that if the antibody test showed 1 in 5 people (~1.6 million) infected n NYC a couple of weeks ago.. then this number should have grown geometrically since then (hopefully at least)

I will accept that it was a mistake and not intentional.  We all make mistakes.  The number of infections likely is growing.  Also keep in mind that because deaths lag infection by about 3 weeks typically there are some people who were infected at the time of the study as still alive...that will unfortunately pass away after the date of the study.  So the mortality rate will end up higher than if you simply take the deaths and divide by the infections at the time of the study.  That is one reason why there is a range not an exact number for the estimated mortality rate.  

One other thing...wrt to your comp to the flu.  If you are going to compare the two you need to use the same metric.  If you are going to use the lowest possible mortality estimate for covid then you need to compare it to the low end of the flue mortality estimates.  When you made your flu/covid comparison you used the low end of the covid range with the high end of the flu.  That is a skewed comparison.  

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5 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Maryland only 900 new cases on over 8,000 tests.  Good news. 

Yes.

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4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Yes.

Couple more days of this and we can confidently say we’re on the downswing. 

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Just now, DCTeacherman said:

Couple more days of this and we can confidently say we’re on the downswing. 

7 calendar days of this and ICU decrease.  There was +202 in hospitalizations reported today.

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There is too much lumping of people into "sides" here IMO.  Not everyone questioning the current plan or accepted assumptions about Covid is automatically saying "we should just open up with no measures and let whatever happen".  And not everyone arguing against someone making a case for a quick opening is saying "we should stay closed for 3 years if we have too no matter what".  There is a LOT of space in between those 2 extremes.  

Personally I have NEVER said we should stay in lockdown for any set period of time.  My main points of contention have been when I saw arguments I didn't feel had logical consistency.  But here is what I do think...whatever plan we have should be developed based on sound scientific evidence and logic.  We should come up with metrics to determine when it is safe and and how to open.  And then those metrics (not peoples feelings) should determine the timeline.  Because those metrics will determine when it is safe...not someones feelings of cabin fever.  The virus doesn't care how frustrated you are.  If we open before it is time we risk doing more harm than good.  But what those metrics should be is a valid debate.  And once we meet the metrics, whatever they are, we should open.  In some places maybe that is very soon.  In some places maybe that is still a long ways away.  I don't know...but I see way too many arguments that seem to be based upon wanting to formulate policy based on their feelings and what they want...not actual evidence that its a good idea medically.  

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It’s interesting that PG county has a lot more cases than montco but montco has more deaths.  I wonder if that’s cause the drive thru testing at fedex was the first of those and the case counts are actually similar.

 

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WV going to open after 3 consecutive days of under 3% of positive tests. (first 1 was today).

this week: elective surgeries, outpatient care (doctor’s offices, dentists).

week 2:  outdoor dining at restaurants, barbers/beauticians with strict social distancing, church services, and funerals.

if positive tests go above 3%, there will be changes or even closures.

 

 

 

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