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COVID-19 Talk


mappy
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Just now, ErinInTheSky said:

Very cool. Anything residents can do?

He didn't say. Just be sure to say thanks when you see a front line worker. Im sure that will go a long way. I have my own opinions about having flyovers that i wont go on about here.

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2 minutes ago, wxtrix said:

so i’ve been tweeting with the WV covid czar and he told me he shared my concern about high risk people on unemployment losing their UI if their workplace reopens with the governor.

WV has now had 3 consecutive days with a positive rate below 3% which means that restaurants can open outdoor seating with social distancing, businesses with fewer than 10 employees can open, and barbers/beauticians/animal groomers can reopen.

i have a concern with how that 3% figure is determined.

the governor will speak at 5:30.

twitter is great when you use it well. thats really awesome the WV covid guy has been responding to questions and concerns. I've had similar interactions with Hogan's top communication guy. 

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Just now, wxtrix said:

i was surprised when he responded to me earlier in the week and now since he is continuing to be responsive to the public, i’m hopeful WV will reopen in a sensible way.

wishing you the best over there, dear. hopefully they are smart about it. 

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Went to the grocery for the first time in 2 weeks. It was much better stocked two weeks ago. Minimal meats. Lots of missing canned goods and frozen stuff. 

Still no liquid soap, disinfectants, napkins, packs of paper towels or toilet paper. Just single tolls of tp and paper towels. 

 

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7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Is “plateau or flattening” a change? I thought it was a drop originally. But it hasn’t dropped at all yet has it? So we haven’t even entered that 14 day countdown?

It hasn't. Current hospitalizations have been increasing, and today was a fairly substantial increase in current hospitalizations. 

 

However, the plateau is part of the reopening plan language released in the pdf a few days ago.

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On 4/28/2020 at 11:48 AM, wxtrix said:

you are deliberately misrepresenting the data on this graph.this has nothing to do with 2018.

from my link above 

 

The analysis suggests that the deaths announced in the weeks leading up to April 4, based on reports from state public health departments, failed to capture the full impact of the pandemic. Those incomplete numbers were widely cited at a time when many states were making critical decisions about closing businesses and taking other actions to stem the spread of the virus.

The analysis also suggests that the death toll from the pandemic is significantly higher than has been reported, said Daniel Weinberger, a Yale professor of epidemiology and the leader of the research team. As of Sunday, more than 54,000 people had been killed by the novel coronavirus, according to numbers reported by state health departments and compiled by The Post.

 

Exactly.. and the published estimates of ~50,000 flu deaths in 2017-2018 failed to capture the full impact of the pandemic that year, when the overall death rate increased some 20% on average per week for several weeks.. but only a couple thousand flu deaths were actually reported during the same weeks.  You can go look at the data your self.  It was a crazy anomoly in the data.. and  noone batted an eyebrow 

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Three things I note today.

 

Gilead is promising, but it is aiming to have 1 million treatments by December 2020. It’s going to take a while to ramp up, and the mortality improvement isn’t confirmed yet. It could reduce healthcare demand though as it will mean people require on average 4 fewer hospitalization days. That’s great for capacity. All this is caveated by a successful peer review and replication studies.

 

Secondly... some states are heading into their worst days right now. Ohio pulled back on reopening and it’s clear why - they are surging right now.
 

Thirdly, testing is so much more important now that there is a potential treatment. 
 

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Serious/critical patients went up significantly today...I guess one concern could also be that as the weather gets nicer, more people will be out and about. I know going for a walk, bike ride etc isnt frowned upon but the park I work at was rocking today. Probably over 100 ppl. It’s harder to social distance with that kind of crowd. 

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22 minutes ago, 40westwx said:

Exactly.. and the published estimates of ~50,000 flu deaths in 2017-2018 failed to capture the full impact of the pandemic that year, when the overall death rate increased some 20% on average per week for several weeks.. but only a couple thousand flu deaths were actually reported during the same weeks.  You can go look at the data your self.  It was a crazy anomoly in the data.. and  noone batted an eyebrow 

Remember that these estimates bump up the death toll and amount of cases by a considerable amount. You are picturing it like these death tolls should've been estimated at higher numbers, when in reality the estimations are likely accurate. However, when comparing those confirmed deaths at the time to those of COVID-19 currently, there's almost no comparison. Especially when considering that there have likely been a lot of explained deaths before when COVID-19 took off in the U.S

355ffdb3e6362892f191392ce8f27e41.png.eb1a354a08f2d2942573a51edb4157c8.png

This also happened with H1N1, where confirmed deaths were a mere fraction of the "estimated" death toll of 12,000

EUuitMPXgAEo3P3.thumb.jpg.c965be1c806270889bd3d7fd5505c036.jpg

^ Outdated graph but it gets the point across quite clearly (as of April 3rd in the graph)

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2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

I'm on the road everyday and this week has been a significant ramp up in rush hour traffic and general traffic on the Baltimore beltway .  And people going 90 mph + has definitely went way up lol. It's a race track :lol:

Yeah I’ve experienced that myself lol. It’s amazing how many people drive like complete A holes. There’s no reason to be going more than 70mph in a 55

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