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This model was put out by a group at University of Washington.  It assumes social distancing continuing throughout May.  Since we may not actually do that, the real curve may end up looking a bit different on the back side.

The low end scenario has around 40,000 US deaths by early August.  You can see the high end is over 140,000.  Again this is with social distancing continuing throughout the period and obviously assuming no effective therapeutic comes along in the meantime.  If we went completely back to life as normal then the numbers would be way uglier than this.

In the nearer term, the low end scenario still has 1,000+ deaths per day in the US from April 5-19.  

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Cheers to you and your doctor, Jackstraw, for being proactive.  I am one of the seniors on this board and have my next wellness check in May following one in December.  Have been ok with no symptoms so far.  And Hoosier, I have found it is easier to get toilet paper at CVS than at my local IGA.

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  I've seen some models as low as 20k total and some as high as 500k total with current restrictions in place.  While I agree that modeling this pandemic is a great tool, the accuracy of this modeled data has yet to be seen.  More important than forecasting when this thing will peak is modeling the data of critical care needs to available resources in specific areas as we move forward.  That's the serious data in the short term that these models can provide to help get emergency supplies, personnel and equipment where it's needed before those areas get overwhelmed.  

  Kinda surreal 30 days ago we were throwing around weather model projections for snow and now were moving into Covid19 model projections.  If anybody knows how to nit pick computer modeling it's weather nerds lol.

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From ne forum

Great interview on CNBC, Dr. Gottlieb given hope that we will be out of this soon.. basic timing, which I think is spot on

April - Rough month

May - Transition (post peak)

June - Start to open things up again

July - August - Mostly back to normal but putting out hot spots and preparing for the fall

Fall 2020 - Likely see hot spots but we are ready and don't need to take drastic actions and also we have more therapies available.

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44 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

From ne forum

Great interview on CNBC, Dr. Gottlieb given hope that we will be out of this soon.. basic timing, which I think is spot on

April - Rough month

May - Transition (post peak)

June - Start to open things up again

July - August - Mostly back to normal but putting out hot spots and preparing for the fall

Fall 2020 - Likely see hot spots but we are ready and don't need to take drastic actions and also we have more therapies available.

I could live with this (assuming I live).

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14 hours ago, Jackstraw said:

  I've seen some models as low as 20k total and some as high as 500k total with current restrictions in place.  While I agree that modeling this pandemic is a great tool, the accuracy of this modeled data has yet to be seen.  More important than forecasting when this thing will peak is modeling the data of critical care needs to available resources in specific areas as we move forward.  That's the serious data in the short term that these models can provide to help get emergency supplies, personnel and equipment where it's needed before those areas get overwhelmed.  

  Kinda surreal 30 days ago we were throwing around weather model projections for snow and now were moving into Covid19 model projections.  If anybody knows how to nit pick computer modeling it's weather nerds lol.

 

This guy is a bioinformatics professor at Uni Washington and he did a snap review of the UW above study and a followup thread

Quote

Carl T. Bergstrom (@CT_Bergstrom) Tweeted:
1. On Friday night I posted a rapid post-publication peer-review of the @IHME_UW model and associated white paper. Here's the IHME website and projections: https://t.co/rveXDBFUjc

https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1244815009303023616?s=20

Where he highlights potential strengths & weaknesses of the modeling, as well as the public & policy impact pitfalls inherent to the messaging on something that’s deeply contingent on how policymakers, professionals, community leaders, and laypeople then act

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There was a really good roundup in that guys circle as it were, of epidemiological modeling successes and partial successes (as seen so far) in what has verified, and been useful prior to verification, lemme see if i can find it

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Before I do that though this podcast episode

https://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-special-lipkin/

was fantastic, covering what its like to have mild/moderate disease, examining public health responses & outcomes/potential outcomes in China and the USA, putting SARS-COV2 in context of other human viruses, talking vaccine / testing / treatment timelines

the title says ‘interview with a covid patient’ but the patient is this guy

W. Ian Lipkin

John Snow Professor, Epidemiology, Professor of Neurology and Pathology and Cell Biology, Director, Center for Infection and Immunity

perhaps best known to us plebs as

Quote

... the chief scientific consultant for the Soderbergh film "Contagion" ...

 

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Cases in my county jumped by 50% since yesterday.  I don't know if a backlog over the weekend could partially explain that so will be very interested to see tomorrow's number.

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On 3/29/2020 at 9:11 PM, Chicago Storm said:

4,596 cases and 65 deaths as of today in IL.

5,057 cases and 73 deaths as of yesterday, which was a slower rise than on Sunday.

Shall see what the numbers are for today in a bit.

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This is what I’m reading r/n,

via this guy,

https://bedford.io/team/trevor-bedford/

ime if you like following along & getting a glimpse into how expert teams of science professionals do research on & create frameworks for understanding emergent phenomena with high potential for community impact, then its a must-click

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5,057 cases and 73 deaths as of yesterday, which was a slower rise than on Sunday.
Shall see what the numbers are for today in a bit.

5,994 cases and 99 deaths now in IL.

Back to a bigger jump with each today.


.

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Per this article, other nations, even in crowded Asia are having far better success in keeping in-hospital care givers from contracting the virus after helping those needing care. 

Could our lack of simple hygiene practices be an Achilles's Heal here in the US? 

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/health-environment/article/3077345/coronavirus-why-so-few-infections-singapores-health

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I don't want to predict a death toll... this isn't a snowstorm we are talking about.  But I will say this.  Looking at the modeling and then doing some numbers on a county level, I think it will be somewhat of a victory if we keep the death toll under 1,000 in Indiana and under 100 in Lake county Indiana.  fwiw, current statewide number of deaths is 49.

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1 hour ago, beavis1729 said:

Not sure if this perspective has been discussed much on here...but if you can get past his angry and egotistical style of writing, it's an interesting hypothesis.  Most importantly - if this hypothesis is really true, what is the best solution going forward?

https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=238738

well its an embittered, polemical perspective that swings past issues which are actually relevant such as: 

its wise to have provisions for health care workers to have separate residences available so they don’t infect their families or general public if they get exposed. spouse’s institution has a plan like that for our family. 

hospitals are huge vectors, nosocomial infections are a Big Deal not just in pandemics but in everyday life

and we’ve seen legit instances where the hospital or the medical supply chain was part of the problem in a pandemic, in the last 50 years. 

but like. these are things that are understood to exist and be worthy of serious study & serious policy. but apparently the author of that post is a crank who, idk, hates an ex lover who was a nurse or doctor, or thinks clinical staff should live like monks in weird health cloisters, and who also has a paranoid conspiracy theory of disease

update now laughing uncontrollably at vision of gamestop manager hulking the f out on his geocities era design covid truther blog b/c they shuttered his storefront then sheriff rousted his SCA sword enthusiasts club from the park, frothing @ paragraph 15: meanwhile my b!tch exwife tina is swanning around in her nurses scrubs buying groceries 

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Modern USA is not built for a infections. Its very crammed together in major consumer centers, which sole purpose is to shop and consume. Letting go of that is hard. Getting rid of the economy since WWII would destroy wealth at a astonishing weight just to get back to a 50/50 production/service economy, which relies less on human interaction. Even online shopping can go so far.

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Noticed something odd on the map of Indiana cases.  It largely follows based on population with rural counties having no or a few confirmed cases.  But I'm not sure why those counties in southeastern IN have the numbers that they do.  They are relatively low population/density.

 

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Noticed something odd on the map of Indiana cases.  It largely follows based on population with rural counties having no or a few confirmed cases.  But I'm not sure why those counties in southeastern IN have the numbers that they do.  They are relatively low population/density.

 

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Yeah, they do have low density populations, but there's also very little business and industry. Many of those people in the southeastern counties commute to Cincinnati. The same goes for the southern counties along the Ohio which are part of greater metropolitan Louisville.

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8 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

Yeah, they do have low density populations, but there's also very little business and industry. Many of those people in the southeastern counties commute to Cincinnati. The same goes for the southern counties along the Ohio which are part of greater metropolitan Louisville.

Good point

Btw, you know this thing is all over the state when Warren county has cases.  That is like the ruralest of the rural counties.  

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19 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

This ain't a movie man.

It's real life, and sometimes it best to be patient and watch. And no, it's not a movie..........yet.

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On 3/18/2020 at 12:49 PM, Hoosier said:

There is some pretty detailed info on the newspaper website about one of the local Lake county IN cases, much of which is from this sick woman's husband since medical officials are obviously limited with what they can release.  She wasn't feeling well so she went to urgent care about a week ago, tested negative for flu and was diagnosed with a kidney infection and sent home.  Then went to the ER on Saturday with an increasing fever and shortness of breath.  Condition quickly worsened and then she was tested and came back positive on Monday night.  Currently in critical condition.  

fwiw, this woman passed away earlier today.  So she lasted about 3 weeks after becoming symptomatic.  She was really ravaged by it... I mean it goes without saying but her husband was posting frequent updates and according to him they weren't even able to detect any brain activity toward the end. 

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

A town around here already cancelled their July 4 parade and fireworks.  

That makes absolutely no sense to me. Its 3 months away for goodness sake.

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I hope we dont see as we get into  hot/humid weather more heat related illnesses and deaths from people who had the virus and have some lingering issues with lung function or just there health in genreal.

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