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I still don't understand the big deal about having to wear a mask. To bring up the the fact yet again that shorts and shoes are required to enter businesses, and we aren't allowed to run around in public completely naked. So why aren't the anti-maskers crying about this? After all, isn't being told you must wear a shirt, shoes, and be properly clothed in public violating your constitutional rights as an American? Being told to wear a mask is the exact same thing as the other clothing rules of society. So what in the world is the big deal about wearing a freaking mask during a pandemic???

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49 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Let's forget the regular flu season will be taking off soon to further overwhelming the hospitals

Most likely will be a low flu season with all the precautions already in place 

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5 hours ago, ikcarsky said:

At the risk of being "inhumane": it's time to accept defeat.  The virus is now endemic, not just in the US but the West as a whole.  It has won, and we've socially exhausted our ability to tolerate further lockdowns.  We had our chance to make lockdowns work and we failed.  Time to embrace that fact and restore overall quality of life by making all public health measures voluntary. If the State still wanted to do something useful, engage in mass distribution of Vitamin D and zinc supplements.  Media messaging and narratives should change to encourage prophylaxis and overall fitness (e.g. outdoor activity, weight loss) should be emphasized.  But ultimately let individuals take charge of their own health and act as they deem fit.  And open up everything.  (But I know this isn't going to happen.)

I said it in another forum, but im down for doing this but you can bet I want this to be across the board type acceptance. If I have to accept defeat then I want all work from home stopped and all CEOs and mid-high management also crowding into workspaces with the rest of us. There will be no mid-high level manager directing me to work from the comforts of his/her suburban house.

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This report provides preliminary evidence that younger adults contributed to community transmission of COVID-19 to older adults. Across the southern United States in June 2020, the increase in SARS-CoV-2 infection among younger adults preceded the increase among older adults by 4–15 days (or approximately one to three incubation periods). Similar observations have been reported by the World Health Organization.*** Further investigation of community transmission dynamics across age groups to identify factors that might be driving infection among younger adults and subsequent transmission to older adults is warranted.

These findings have important clinical and public health implications. First, occupational and behavioral factors might put younger adults at higher risk for exposure to SARS-CoV-2. Younger adults make up a large proportion of workers in frontline occupations (e.g., retail stores, public transit, child care, and social services) and highly exposed industries (e.g., restaurants/bars, entertainment, and personal services) (4,5), where consistent implementation of prevention strategies might be difficult or not possible. In addition, younger adults might also be less likely to follow community mitigation strategies, such as social distancing and avoiding group gatherings (6,7). Second, younger adults, who are more likely to have mild or no symptoms,††† can unknowingly contribute to presymptomatic or asymptomatic transmission to others (2), including to persons at higher risk for severe illness. Finally, SARS-CoV-2 infection is not benign in younger adults, especially among those with underlying medical conditions,§§§ who are at risk for hospitalization, severe illness, and death (8).

Increased prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection among younger adults likely contributes to community transmission of COVID-19, including to persons at higher risk for severe illness, such as older adults. Emphasis should be placed on targeted mitigation strategies to reduce infection and transmission among younger adults, including age-appropriate prevention messages (7), restricting in-person gatherings and events,**** recommending mask use and social distancing in settings where persons socialize,†††† implementing safe practices at on-site eating and drinking venues (9), and enforcing protection measures for essential and service industry workers.§§§§ Given the role of asymptomatic and presymptomatic transmission (2), all persons, including young adults, should take extra precautions to avoid transmission to family and community members who are older or who have underlying medical conditions. Strict adherence to community mitigation strategies and personal preventive behaviors by younger adults is needed to help reduce their risk for infection and minimize subsequent transmission of SARS-CoV-2 to persons at higher risk for severe COVID-19.

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13 hours ago, Malacka11 said:

People seem to be forgetting that all of the data we have available to us thus far was generated during a legitimate quarantine. What I'm trying to say is, if everyone but the 1% who are at greatest risk of dropping dead (not being severely ill, which could be anyone, but dropping dead) suddenly stops taking the virus seriously, then you can be DAMN well sure that those hospitals are going to be extremely overwhelmed. And in this case, transiency - or a lack thereof - is entirely irrelevant, because the second that there are people in this country who are  unable to obtain adequate medical attention because of a lack of space, we'll know that we have failed as a nation. 

This is a gross exaggeration and unsupported by case and hospitalization data.  Initial "first wave" case growth is exponential and hits the susceptible population hard when left unimpeded.  Once the virus runs through this population and has to work through tougher, fitter organisms, the new infections generally lead to milder cases.  We see this now in Europe where countries that crushed their first wave (Czech Republic) are seeing proportionally more severe cases than countries that were hit hard by their first wave (UK, France, etc.).

12 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Let's forget the regular flu season will be taking off soon to further overwhelming the hospitals 

Flu season is probably canceled, possibly because COVID is blocking it.  Note how 2019 matched 2020 until COVID-19 popped up (log scale).  And that's not for lack of flu testing either.  We'll know for sure in a few weeks.

EkeNLfrWMAEW8LC.thumb.jpg.533f0fc2d8e5514f1eead70f9815fa8e.jpg

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46 minutes ago, ikcarsky said:

This is a gross exaggeration and unsupported by case and hospitalization data.  Initial "first wave" case growth is exponential and hits the susceptible population hard when left unimpeded.  Once the virus runs through this population and has to work through tougher, fitter organisms, the new infections generally lead to milder cases.  We see this now in Europe where countries that crushed their first wave (Czech Republic) are seeing proportionally more severe cases than countries that were hit hard by their first wave (UK, France, etc.).

Flu season is probably canceled, possibly because COVID is blocking it.  Note how 2019 matched 2020 until COVID-19 popped up (log scale).  And that's not for lack of flu testing either.  We'll know for sure in a few weeks.

EkeNLfrWMAEW8LC.thumb.jpg.533f0fc2d8e5514f1eead70f9815fa8e.jpg

Agreed on the flu, it's more likely to be mild given what the southern hemisphere observed.

Eh. Not sure about this. We missed a ton of infections in the very beginning of the pandemic, so much so that there were maybe like 500K infections per day at the peak in early April in the US. We are catching a way higher proportion of infections now, so the ratio of cases-hospitalizations-deaths appears much higher. Most people are being fairly careful, especially so when they see an outbreak in their community and then take further action, which can drive the Rt back to near or under 1.  

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14 hours ago, ovweather said:

I still don't understand the big deal about having to wear a mask. To bring up the the fact yet again that shorts and shoes are required to enter businesses, and we aren't allowed to run around in public completely naked. So why aren't the anti-maskers crying about this? After all, isn't being told you must wear a shirt, shoes, and be properly clothed in public violating your constitutional rights as an American? Being told to wear a mask is the exact same thing as the other clothing rules of society. So what in the world is the big deal about wearing a freaking mask during a pandemic???

It's the "tone" in which people have when it comes to asking others to wear a mask. There's a certain condescending attitude prevalent when telling others to wear a mask. Being lectured and told you will "kill grandma" and that you're "selfish" if you don't wear a mask only makes people who don't wear masks dig in on not wearing a mask. I also think that for some people, it's a macho thing, to show that you aren't afraid of the virus and that you aren't going to allow it to stop you from living your life.

I personally hate wearing a mask, it's hot, uncomfortable, and just downright unpleasant, but I also have several people in my life that would probably die if they were to become infected so I have to be extra careful.  

EDIT: My belief is that if you want to wear a mask, then wear a mask, if you don't want to wear a mask, then don't wear a mask. If you want to get someone to wear a mask, then don't be a-hole about it, try to find out why they don't want to wear a mask and go from there. 

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I'm ok with people not wearing a mask as long as they never leave the house and go out in public.  Otherwise, wear one when you are out and about.  The available info suggests that by wearing a mask, you are blocking more outbound than what is coming inbound.  Hence, a masked person going into a place where people aren't wearing them can still be at a fairly substantial risk of contracting the virus depending on the situation.

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51 minutes ago, JoMo said:

It's the "tone" in which people have when it comes to asking others to wear a mask. There's a certain condescending attitude prevalent when telling others to wear a mask. Being lectured and told you will "kill grandma" and that you're "selfish" if you don't wear a mask only makes people who don't wear masks dig in on not wearing a mask. I also think that for some people, it's a macho thing, to show that you aren't afraid of the virus and that you aren't going to allow it to stop you from living your life.

I personally hate wearing a mask, it's hot, uncomfortable, and just downright unpleasant, but I also have several people in my life that would probably die if they were to become infected so I have to be extra careful.  

EDIT: My belief is that if you want to wear a mask, then wear a mask, if you don't want to wear a mask, then don't wear a mask. If you want to get someone to wear a mask, then don't be a-hole about it, try to find out why they don't want to wear a mask and go from there. 

I hate wearing a mask, too. I think most people do. It’s a pain in the butt. And I find myself frequently touching the mask to readjust it. Ironically, I’m probably touching my face a lot more while wearing a mask than I do when not wearing one. But, I will wear it and continue to wear it as long as need be if it helps fight the spread of the virus and sets a proper example.

I do agree with you that some people will just dig their heels in deeper when told they must wear a mask. Maybe it’s a pride thing or just a stupidity thing. Regardless, it’s a selfish behavior that shows no regard for anyone else but one’s self. That’s a mindset evident in society that this pandemic has really exposed. Everyone can do better; be more nice and empathetic. It really isn’t that hard.

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1 hour ago, JoMo said:

It's the "tone" in which people have when it comes to asking others to wear a mask. There's a certain condescending attitude prevalent when telling others to wear a mask. Being lectured and told you will "kill grandma" and that you're "selfish" if you don't wear a mask only makes people who don't wear masks dig in on not wearing a mask. I also think that for some people, it's a macho thing, to show that you aren't afraid of the virus and that you aren't going to allow it to stop you from living your life.

I personally hate wearing a mask, it's hot, uncomfortable, and just downright unpleasant, but I also have several people in my life that would probably die if they were to become infected so I have to be extra careful.  

EDIT: My belief is that if you want to wear a mask, then wear a mask, if you don't want to wear a mask, then don't wear a mask. If you want to get someone to wear a mask, then don't be a-hole about it, try to find out why they don't want to wear a mask and go from there. 

Ive never understood the anti-maskers. I have to wear a mask when working with cement, concrete sand, grinding/cutting various things at work. If I can do that in 90+ heat pretty sure they can put on a mask for a quick 15 minute stop at Wal-mart/grocery store.  

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4 hours ago, ovweather said:

I hate wearing a mask, too. I think most people do. It’s a pain in the butt. And I find myself frequently touching the mask to readjust it. Ironically, I’m probably touching my face a lot more while wearing a mask than I do when not wearing one. But, I will wear it and continue to wear it as long as need be if it helps fight the spread of the virus and sets a proper example.

I do agree with you that some people will just dig their heels in deeper when told they must wear a mask. Maybe it’s a pride thing or just a stupidity thing. Regardless, it’s a selfish behavior that shows no regard for anyone else but one’s self. That’s a mindset evident in society that this pandemic has really exposed. Everyone can do better; be more nice and empathetic. It really isn’t that hard.

Oh, this whole thing has really shown how selfish many Americans are. It's hilarious when folks are all about "my personal freedoms" but places "can't tell me what to do." Like, you can't have it both ways.

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Rural Midwest hospitals struggling to handle virus surge

WESSINGTON SPRINGS, S.D. (AP) — Rural Jerauld County in South Dakota didn’t see a single case of the coronavirus for more than two months stretching from June to August. But over the last two weeks, its rate of new cases per person soared to one of the highest in the nation.

“All of a sudden it hit, and as it does, it just exploded,” said Dr. Tom Dean, one of just three doctors who work in the county.

As the brunt of the virus has blown into the Upper Midwest and northern Plains, the severity of outbreaks in rural communities has come into focus. Doctors and health officials in small towns worry that infections may overwhelm communities with limited medical resources. And many say they are still running up against attitudes on wearing masks that have hardened along political lines and a false notion that rural areas are immune to widespread infections.

Dean took to writing a column in the local weekly newspaper, the True Dakotan, to offer his guidance. In recent weeks, he’s watched as one in roughly every 37 people in his county has tested positive for the virus.

It ripped through the nursing home in Wessington Springs where both his parents lived, killing his father. The community’s six deaths may appear minimal compared with thousands who have died in cities, but they have propelled the county of about 2,000 people to a death rate roughly four times higher than the nationwide rate.

Rural counties across Wisconsin, North Dakota, South Dakota and Montana sit among the top in the nation for new cases per capita over the last two weeks, according to Johns Hopkins University researchers. Overall, the nation topped 8 million confirmed coronavirus cases in the university’s count on Friday; the true number of infections is believed to be much higher because many people have not been tested.

In counties with just a few thousand people, the number of cases per capita can soar with even a small outbreak — and the toll hits close to home in tight-knit towns.

“One or two people with infections can really cause a large impact when you have one grocery store or gas station,” said Misty Rudebusch, the medical director at a network of rural health clinics in South Dakota called Horizon Health Care. “There is such a ripple effect.”

Wessington Springs is a hub for the generations of farmers and ranchers that work the surrounding land. Residents send their children to the same schoolhouse they attended and have preserved cultural offerings like a Shakespeare garden and opera house.

They trust Dean, who for 42 years has tended to everything from broken bones to high blood pressure. When a patient needs a higher level of care, the family physician usually depends on a transfer to a hospital 130 miles (209 kilometers) away.

As cases surge, hospitals in rural communities are having trouble finding beds. A recent request to transfer a “not desperately ill, but pretty” sick COVID-19 patient was denied for several days, until the patient’s condition had worsened, Dean said.

“We’re proud of what we got, but it’s been a struggle,” he said of the 16-bed hospital.

The outbreak that killed Dean’s dad forced Wessington Springs’ only nursing home to put out a statewide request for nurses.

Thin resources and high death rates have plagued other small communities. Blair Tomsheck, interim director of the health department in Toole County, Montana, worried that the region’s small hospitals would need to start caring for serious COVID-19 patients after cases spiked to the nation’s highest per capita. One out of every 28 people in the county has tested positive in the last two weeks, according to Johns Hopkins researchers.

“It’s very, very challenging when your resources are poor — living in a small, rural county,” she said.

Infections can also spread quickly in places like Toole County, where most everyone shops at the same grocery store, attends the same school or worships at a handful of churches.

“The Sunday family dinners are killing us,” Tomsheck said.

Even as outbreaks threaten to spiral out of control, doctors and health officials said they are struggling to convince people of the seriousness of a virus that took months to arrive in force.

“It’s kind of like getting a blizzard warning and then the blizzard doesn’t hit that week, so then the next time, people say they are not going to worry about it,” said Kathleen Taylor, a 67-year-old author who lives in Redfield, South Dakota.

https://www.wishtv.com/news/coronavirus/rural-midwest-hospitals-struggling-to-handle-virus-surge/

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Let’s be honest, the thing that has made this so bad is that we were not prepared. No one really was. Bill Gates talked about this a few years ago in that TED talk, he was terrified at how our world governments were completely unprepared for a pandemic.

That’s how things normally are though. In the 1930’s and 1940’s no one was prepared for the rise of the Axis Powers and it almost led to world domination by Japan and Germany. It took a monumental national effort for us to get a legit army by 1944, 3 years after Pearl Harbor. Only then did the tide turn.

For those of us that remember the world before 9/11, it’s staggering to look back at how carefree security was in general. Then 3,000 people are murdered and then all airports/mass gatherings have since turned into high security events.

It’ll be the same way with this. No way are we ever going to be unprepared for a pandemic again. And I suspect massive improvements in overall societal health following this. But it’s going to take some time

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3 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

Let’s be honest, the thing that has made this so bad is that we were not prepared. No one really was. Bill Gates talked about this a few years ago in that TED talk, he was terrified at how our world governments were completely unprepared for a pandemic.

That’s how things normally are though. In the 1930’s and 1940’s no one was prepared for the rise of the Axis Powers and it almost led to world domination by Japan and Germany. It took a monumental national effort for us to get a legit army by 1944, 3 years after Pearl Harbor. Only then did the tide turn.

For those of us that remember the world before 9/11, it’s staggering to look back at how carefree security was in general. Then 3,000 people are murdered and then all airports/mass gatherings have since turned into high security events.

It’ll be the same way with this. No way are we ever going to be unprepared for a pandemic again. And I suspect massive improvements in overall societal health following this. But it’s going to take some time

I think it depends.  A long passage of time between events breeds complacency.  If we are waiting 20 or 30 years for the next pandemic, I could see us ("us" not just meaning the US, but other nations as well) not being as prepared as we should be.  But there's probably a decent chance that it won't be that long until another novel virus pandemic.

I think the 9/11 comparison has relevance as to where we are going.  Most of life is how it was prior to 9/11, but there are some things that just aren't the same even almost 20 years later.  Masks are here to stay for quite a while and even after the mask "mandates" end (I put that in quotes since enforcement is not uniform), I think some people will choose to wear them for years to come.  Then there is the way that business is likely to change, with sort of a work from home revolution among other things.  Interesting time to be alive.

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1 hour ago, StormfanaticInd said:

I've noticed a couple states not reporting like (Wisconsin and Michigan) and yet the numbers are still high for a weekend. Not a good sign heading into this week

 

Yeah Wisconsin has had site maintenance all weekend long. Should be back to reporting tmrw I think.

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2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Rural Midwest hospitals struggling to handle virus surge

WESSINGTON SPRINGS, S.D. (AP) — Rural Jerauld County in South Dakota didn’t see a single case of the coronavirus for more than two months stretching from June to August. But over the last two weeks, its rate of new cases per person soared to one of the highest in the nation.

“All of a sudden it hit, and as it does, it just exploded,” said Dr. Tom Dean, one of just three doctors who work in the county.

As the brunt of the virus has blown into the Upper Midwest and northern Plains, the severity of outbreaks in rural communities has come into focus. Doctors and health officials in small towns worry that infections may overwhelm communities with limited medical resources. And many say they are still running up against attitudes on wearing masks that have hardened along political lines and a false notion that rural areas are immune to widespread infections.

Dean took to writing a column in the local weekly newspaper, the True Dakotan, to offer his guidance. In recent weeks, he’s watched as one in roughly every 37 people in his county has tested positive for the virus.

It ripped through the nursing home in Wessington Springs where both his parents lived, killing his father. The community’s six deaths may appear minimal compared with thousands who have died in cities, but they have propelled the county of about 2,000 people to a death rate roughly four times higher than the nationwide rate.

Rural counties across Wisconsin, North Dakota, South Dakota and Montana sit among the top in the nation for new cases per capita over the last two weeks, according to Johns Hopkins University researchers. Overall, the nation topped 8 million confirmed coronavirus cases in the university’s count on Friday; the true number of infections is believed to be much higher because many people have not been tested.

In counties with just a few thousand people, the number of cases per capita can soar with even a small outbreak — and the toll hits close to home in tight-knit towns.

“One or two people with infections can really cause a large impact when you have one grocery store or gas station,” said Misty Rudebusch, the medical director at a network of rural health clinics in South Dakota called Horizon Health Care. “There is such a ripple effect.”

Wessington Springs is a hub for the generations of farmers and ranchers that work the surrounding land. Residents send their children to the same schoolhouse they attended and have preserved cultural offerings like a Shakespeare garden and opera house.

They trust Dean, who for 42 years has tended to everything from broken bones to high blood pressure. When a patient needs a higher level of care, the family physician usually depends on a transfer to a hospital 130 miles (209 kilometers) away.

As cases surge, hospitals in rural communities are having trouble finding beds. A recent request to transfer a “not desperately ill, but pretty” sick COVID-19 patient was denied for several days, until the patient’s condition had worsened, Dean said.

“We’re proud of what we got, but it’s been a struggle,” he said of the 16-bed hospital.

The outbreak that killed Dean’s dad forced Wessington Springs’ only nursing home to put out a statewide request for nurses.

Thin resources and high death rates have plagued other small communities. Blair Tomsheck, interim director of the health department in Toole County, Montana, worried that the region’s small hospitals would need to start caring for serious COVID-19 patients after cases spiked to the nation’s highest per capita. One out of every 28 people in the county has tested positive in the last two weeks, according to Johns Hopkins researchers.

“It’s very, very challenging when your resources are poor — living in a small, rural county,” she said.

Infections can also spread quickly in places like Toole County, where most everyone shops at the same grocery store, attends the same school or worships at a handful of churches.

“The Sunday family dinners are killing us,” Tomsheck said.

Even as outbreaks threaten to spiral out of control, doctors and health officials said they are struggling to convince people of the seriousness of a virus that took months to arrive in force.

“It’s kind of like getting a blizzard warning and then the blizzard doesn’t hit that week, so then the next time, people say they are not going to worry about it,” said Kathleen Taylor, a 67-year-old author who lives in Redfield, South Dakota.

https://www.wishtv.com/news/coronavirus/rural-midwest-hospitals-struggling-to-handle-virus-surge/

Basically, Sturgis bike week and all the out of towners traveling to the area wasn’t a good idea after all. Who would of thunk it? Jeez, why weren’t these people and community warned ahead of time? <_<

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What is happening in the Upper Midwest is is some ways comparable to some of the eastern European countries. In both cases transmission rates were partially kept very much in check by limited travel occurring from existing hot spots combined with distancing to some degree or another. As people became complacent they believed it wouldn't be become a problem and that allowed more cases to be introduced in the communities and caused infection rates to jump.

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In reference to the mask talk a few posts ago, this is pretty crude, but spells out nicely the effectiveness of masks.

96372918_3339653362732391_114394349394984960_n.thumb.jpg.f0fca0a7667da6bc611d9fcb916586b4.jpg

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12 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

In reference to the mask talk a few posts ago, this is pretty crude, but spells out nicely the effectiveness of masks.

96372918_3339653362732391_114394349394984960_n.thumb.jpg.f0fca0a7667da6bc611d9fcb916586b4.jpg

At least it's not a defecation example.

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Masks mandates make many feel muzzled by the State.

10 hours ago, OSUmetstud said:

We are catching a way higher proportion of infections now, so the ratio of cases-hospitalizations-deaths appears much higher. Most people are being fairly careful, especially so when they see an outbreak in their community and then take further action, which can drive the Rt back to near or under 1.  

True.  But that implies an even lower IFR, and even more immune individuals.  In the end there's just no realistic scenario where surges in hospitalizations are maintained for long periods of time.

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Just now, ikcarsky said:

Masks mandates make many feel muzzled by the State.

True.  But that implies an even lower IFR, and even more immune individuals.  In the end there's just no realistic scenario where surges in hospitalizations are maintained for long periods of time.

The CDC estimates a population level IFR of about 0.9 percent and about 10% infected so far. 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/09/23/cdc-director-says-more-than-90percent-of-americans-remain-susceptible-to-the-coronavirus.html

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

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8 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

That estimated IFR is actually higher than I thought.  

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4 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

That estimated IFR is actually higher than I thought.  

Guessing it’s more around 0.5-0.7% when it’s all said and done. Started around the high end at the beginning and will get to the lower end as we get better treatments. Some states like Utah and Alaska have a CFR in that range right now 

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11 hours ago, Hoosier said:

I'm ok with people not wearing a mask as long as they never leave the house and go out in public.  Otherwise, wear one when you are out and about.  The available info suggests that by wearing a mask, you are blocking more outbound than what is coming inbound.  Hence, a masked person going into a place where people aren't wearing them can still be at a fairly substantial risk of contracting the virus depending on the situation.

That's not a good example as they can just say the same thing in reverse. A frequent thing around here is people telling others that if they are scared, then they can be the ones to stay home, have their groceries delivered, etc.. but let everyone else live their lives how they see fit. Joplin had a mask ordinance for about a month but they let it expire because people organized groups and started shopping out of town, in nearby towns that didn't have a mask ordinance and the city was losing sales tax revenue. We've had around 31 deaths I believe and 21 of those were from one nursing home that was ravaged fairly early on in the pandemic. The nursing homes all went on lockdown, required masks, etc... but all it takes is one slip up from staff or a delivery driver and bad things happen.

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1 hour ago, madwx said:

Guessing it’s more around 0.5-0.7% when it’s all said and done. Started around the high end at the beginning and will get to the lower end as we get better treatments. Some states like Utah and Alaska have a CFR in that range right now 

Barring eradication of covid-19, hopefully the IFR gets to flu levels or like some of the more benign coronaviruses over time.

I've wondered what the IFR was of the other types of coronaviruses when they first showed up.

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8 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Barring eradication of covid-19, hopefully the IFR gets to flu levels or like some of the more benign coronaviruses over time.

I've wondered what the IFR was of the other types of coronaviruses when they first showed up.

There are ideas that the Russian Flu in the late 1800s was actually the introduction of one of the common coronaviruses we have today.  There were a lot more neurological symptoms with it than normally occur with the flu 

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8 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Barring eradication of covid-19, hopefully the IFR gets to flu levels or like some of the more benign coronaviruses over time.

I've wondered what the IFR was of the other types of coronaviruses when they first showed up.

Without a vaccine, eventually enough population gets exposed for (at least partial) herd immunity in the short to medium term (2-3 years). Longer term, the virus would most likely become endemic and more adapted to humans resulting in generally more benign effects.  A vaccine is very unlikely to eradicate it like smallpox. Most likely scenario is vaccine combined with exposure in the population  will get us toward herd immunity levels by later 2021. Vaccination will not have a real impact for this winter unfortunately. Even with approvals late year and some vaccine dosages available, it will take time to distribute with the cold storage requirements and get a meaningful percentage to the population to get it.

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