Coronavirus

[Jackstraw]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Yeah I agree.  Overall my politics are not in line with Holcomb's but I think he has done about as well as you can do in this situation given the circumstances.  He was among the first R governors to close things down.  When we do start to relax, I hope it's not the Georgia route. That seems like too much too fast. 

  It's going to be interesting.  I think for our state it's more important than some that it be properly coordinated.  I mean we have a couple large population centers but there's even bigger, and more, population centers in other states right on our border. The protests in Indiana are a very small bullshit minority.  There's a few inconveniences, but for the most part anybody who thinks their freedom is being trampled on needs to go back in their cave.  In the more rural counties like where I live the biggest issue isn't folks laid off, it's REAL small businesses struggling, not stock market listed "small businesses" struggling.  I've been very impressed for the most part at the social distancing aspect.  Yeah there are a lot of people out on the nice days but the few times I or one of our friends has done the group shopping thing, been very surprised at how folks are respecting the whole social distancing thing this far in.  Few bad apples here and there but they are usually put in their place if there's a small respectful group around that see's it.  Nice days there's a lot of cars out but the parking lots are not full at all.  Think it's just people doing like me, take a ride.  It's nice out, it's safe, and it keeps the heebeegeebees at bay.

  It's going to be hard to make the calls up where you're at, down in the SE corner of the state and down by Clarksville.  Those areas are so intertwined with the larger metropolises across state lines, amongst others, it really is going to have to take coordination between the states.   

And to my point about state borders.  When you look at a map.OH,IL, and IN share more "extensive" as in lengths of the borders consistently with more states than any other states in the country.  So, IMHO, it is more imperative that they coordinate the re-opening with their border states than maybe others in the country.  

[sokolow]

i wouldnt have guessed it because as a brand their personal care section is, ah, more focused on wellness & supportive therapies but chicagoland whole paycheck is rockin crates of hand sanitizer. it appears to be boutique gin from an artisan distillery concentrated to 160 proof

[sokolow]

I wonder if this will verify

Trevor Bedford says

 

[CoachLB]

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-04-20/coronavirus-serology-testing-la-county?_amp=true

[hoosierwx]

On the bad news front all of these assymptamatic cases and maybe even mild cases may be able to get it again this fall. Nothing is known for sure yet but just based on other coronavirus infections the severity of the disease may be tied to immune response down the road. 2 to 3 years in severe cases and 2 to 3 months possibly in mild or assymptomatic cases.

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[josh_4184]

14 hours ago, Stebo said:

Camping/boating/golfing yes but still with social distancing. As for the spiking that is typical for a Tuesday as the weekend has been undercounted. What need to do is take Saturday to Tuesday and divide by 4 to get a more real estimate.

Good point

[Hoosier]

Was able to buy an 8 oz bottle of hand sanitizer at the store.  Almost couldn't believe my eyes.

[Snowstorms]

8 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Was able to buy an 8 oz bottle of hand sanitizer at the store.  Almost couldn't believe my eyes.

When I went grocery shopping last week, I saw numerous bottles of hand sanitizer. It was sold out everywhere prior to that. Limit was 2, so I grabbed 2 lol. Now we wait for Lysol and/or Clorox wipes to be restocked. 

[Guest ovweather]

Encouraging news from researchers at the University of Louisville:

https://www.wdrb.com/news/u-of-l-researchers-develop-promising-tech-that-could-block-covid-19-infection/article_878a2958-84b5-11ea-98a9-ef3c1f902795.html
 

[frostfern]

10 hours ago, hoosierwx said:

On the bad news front all of these assymptamatic cases and maybe even mild cases may be able to get it again this fall. Nothing is known for sure yet but just based on other coronavirus infections the severity of the disease may be tied to immune response down the road. 2 to 3 years in severe cases and 2 to 3 months possibly in mild or assymptomatic cases.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk
 

What is "mild" anyways?  I had one of the worst fevers in my life back in early March, but since I was only bedridden for 3 days and never felt so bad I might die if I don't go to the hospital I couldn't get tested.  For COVID-19 it wasn't that bad, but I'm having a lot of trouble believing it was something else because I'm 40 and haven't had influenza since childhood.  The symptoms were either influenza or a short COVID-19 case.  A positive antibody test would make me feel better.  It's still worth it even if false positives are possible.  Whatever it was my wife got it exactly a week after me.  Both my parents were exposed to us before I realized it might not have been influenza, so I was nervous for a while.  My father has heart disease.

[Hoosier]

Cuomo announcing some interesting antibody test results from NY.  In the initial round of testing, about 14% came back as having the antibodies.  Wouldn't necessarily extrapolate that number across the country for various reasons but gives more credence to the idea that there are a large number of infections being missed.

[madwx]

 

26 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Cuomo announcing some interesting antibody test results from NY.  In the initial round of testing, about 14% came back as having the antibodies.  Wouldn't necessarily extrapolate that number across the country for various reasons but gives more credence to the idea that there are a large number of infections being missed.

that would mean the actual infections have been about 10x the reported infections, if not slightly more.  

[Hoosier]

47 minutes ago, madwx said:

 

that would mean the actual infections have been about 10x the reported infections, if not slightly more.  

Yes... about 1.4% of the population of New York state has tested positive for the virus.

The antibody test was broken down by region of the state.  21% of the NYC sample had the antibodies with much lower numbers across the rest of the state.  Intuitively it makes sense that a densely populated area would have a relatively high percentage of exposure.  Even if this sample is representative of New York state (which may not even be true) you wouldn't want to extrapolate that 14% of, say, Kansas has been exposed.    

[Hoosier]

If the New York sample is representative of the entire state and the antibody test is highly accurate/specific to covid-19 and not picking up on other coronavirus exposures, it would suggest a fatality rate around 0.7% in NY state, give or take.  Doesn't sound like a lot but that is a big problem if it had just been allowed to run through the population all at once.  Hopefully we get an effective therapeutic to lower the death (and severe illness) rate.  

[Hoosier]

Pritzker expected to extend stay at home order in IL

https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/coronavirus/pritzker-expected-to-extend-illinois-stay-at-home-order-thursday-sources/2260588/?amp

[CoachLB]

My county has 37 recovered out of 63 cases. 12  have passed 9 have been confirmed related to cvd.

[Hoosier]

Illinois stay at home extended through May 30.

Indiana's only goes through May 1.  I wonder what Holcomb is going to do.  I know he has not ruled out the possibility of having different regulations in different parts of the state, so if he goes that route, I'm sure Lake county would be more restricted than most of the state.

[Guest ovweather]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.kget.com/health/coronavirus/doctors-provide-differing-opinion-on-shelter-in-place-order/amp/

Is too much social distancing weakening our immune systems? Our immune systems need to encounter germs regularly to maintain themselves to function properly. All this social distancing, excessive hand-washing, use of sanitizers, etc, can’t be “healthy“ in the long run. I’m not saying we ignore Covid and all run to a grocery store and start licking shopping carts, but something to consider just how physically unhealthy social distancing and being germaphobic may be if it goes on for many months. Could there be a dramatic uptick in sicknesses from other viruses when things return to somewhat normalcy? Are we setting ourselves up to face even a bigger onslaught of Covid cases, too?

Good health requires many things - eating right, proper sleep, healthy weight, adequate exercise, reduced mental stress, not smoking - but we often forget our bodies need to encounter germs in order to keep the immune system functioning properly and not getting lazy. After all, during normal life of being out and about, we encounter countless germs / viruses daily that we aren’t even aware of.

[mississaugasnow]

After a 9 day battle with Corona (test results took days to get back) my grandmother passed away this morning in her long term care home with no one able to visit her in her last days. I know we can debate whether lockdowns are worth it or and whether the elderly would have died in a few years or months regardless of the virus, but at the end of the day shes not here anymore because of this virus. 

[Hoosier]

39 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said:

After a 9 day battle with Corona (test results took days to get back) my grandmother passed away this morning in her long term care home with no one able to visit her in her last days. I know we can debate whether lockdowns are worth it or and whether the elderly would have died in a few years or months regardless of the virus, but at the end of the day shes not here anymore because of this virus. 

Sorry for your loss.  

[Hoosier]

Looking at the number of cases by county for Indiana, the more populated counties really stand out.

 

 

But looking at cases per 10,000 residents reveals some additional counties getting hit pretty hard that are not so obvious on the first map.  One of the striking examples of that is in the northwest part of the state where Lake county has 1346 cases and the county directly south, Newton, has 40 cases.  Yet it is Newton that has a hair more cases per 10000 people.  Many of those cases in Newton county are at a nursing home.

Another thing that stands out is the very low number of cases in Tippecanoe county/Lafayette area.  Even with clearing out Purdue, there is still a pretty sizable population there.  And the testing rate per 10000 people there (blue map below) has been better than many other counties in the state.

 

 

 

[madwx]

7 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Looking at the number of cases by county for Indiana, the more populated counties really stand out.

 

 

But looking at cases per 10,000 residents reveals some additional counties getting hit pretty hard that are not so obvious on the first map.  One of the striking examples of that is in the northwest part of the state where Lake county has 1346 cases and the county directly south, Newton, has 40 cases.  Yet it is Newton that has a hair more cases per 10000 people.  Many of those cases in Newton county are at a nursing home.

Another thing that stands out is the very low number of cases in Tippecanoe county/Lafayette area.  Even with clearing out Purdue, there is still a pretty sizable population there.  And the testing rate per 10000 people there (blue map below) has been better than many other counties in the state.

 

 

 

the infection rate map mostly mirrors the testing rate map which is a good indicator that we're not catching all the cases

[RogueWaves]

14 hours ago, ovweather said:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.kget.com/health/coronavirus/doctors-provide-differing-opinion-on-shelter-in-place-order/amp/

Is too much social distancing weakening our immune systems? Our immune systems need to encounter germs regularly to maintain themselves to function properly. All this social distancing, excessive hand-washing, use of sanitizers, etc, can’t be “healthy“ in the long run. I’m not saying we ignore Covid and all run to a grocery store and start licking shopping carts, but something to consider just how physically unhealthy social distancing and being germaphobic may be if it goes on for many months. Could there be a dramatic uptick in sicknesses from other viruses when things return to somewhat normalcy? Are we setting ourselves up to face even a bigger onslaught of Covid cases, too?

Good health requires many things - eating right, proper sleep, healthy weight, adequate exercise, reduced mental stress, not smoking - but we often forget our bodies need to encounter germs in order to keep the immune system functioning properly and not getting lazy. After all, during normal life of being out and about, we encounter countless germs / viruses daily that we aren’t even aware of.

"Are we setting ourselves up to face even a bigger onslaught of Covid cases, too?"

No. We are being set-up. Need to reach herd immunity asap to minimize the damage. Hope you enjoyed life as you knew it.

[madwx]

27 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

"Are we setting ourselves up to face even a bigger onslaught of Covid cases, too?"

No. We are being set-up. Need to reach herd immunity asap to minimize the damage. Hope you enjoyed life as you knew it.

How do you propose infecting 80% of the population asap without massively overloading the hospital system.  20% of NYC got infected over 2 months and their system was on the brink of being overloaded.

[Hoosier]

Today begins the great Georgia experiment of reopening.  There are some things reopening in a few other states as well but Georgia seems to be getting more attention.  

Will have to wait awhile to be able to track what happens because of the incubation period of the virus, time to get a test and the results, etc.  So we are looking at 2-3 weeks from now before we can even get the earliest indication.  I'm sure a good amount of folks are still going to remain home or only go out for essentials for now.  The concern would be if there's not much of an increase 2 weeks from now that it lulls people into a sense of security.

[Wmsptwx]

5 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Today begins the great Georgia experiment of reopening.  There are some things reopening in a few other states as well but Georgia seems to be getting more attention.  

Will have to wait awhile to be able to track what happens because of the incubation period of the virus, time to get a test and the results, etc.  So we are looking at 2-3 weeks from now before we can even get the earliest indication.  I'm sure a good amount of folks are still going to remain home or only go out for essentials for now.  The concern would be if there's not much of an increase 2 weeks from now that it lulls people into a sense of security.

Yeah..this whole virus has been very complex and confusing and working in different ways than commonly thought...so situation in Georgia will be anyone’s guess the outcome.

[Stebo]

1 hour ago, madwx said:

How do you propose infecting 80% of the population asap without massively overloading the hospital system.  20% of NYC got infected over 2 months and their system was on the brink of being overloaded.

It is impossible and with a deadly virus no less. This idea of herd immunity is a fallacy that will not work unless done naturally. 

[sokolow]

Preprint of “Coronavirus Disease Outbreak in Call Center, South Korea“ by Park and co.

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/8/20-1274_article

Via Zeynep Tufekci (@zeynep) From perspective of what does it imply for normal people, she points out for us both disturbing and reassuring potential findings claimed in paper: on one side of the floor, damn near half of the staff were infected; much lower transmission at home, low transmission to other floors. Very few infected persons (~2%) failed to show clinical signs within 14 days.

She points out that like we talked about upthread, highest risk situation is crowding, or rather, prolonged mutual exposure while indoors.

 

[sokolow]

She emphasizes that: the figure with the seating plan is really impressive, so I’ll post it large

Figure 2. Floor plan of the 11th floor of building X, site of a coronavirus disease outbreak, Seoul, South Korea, 2020. Blue coloring indicates the seating places of persons with confirmed cases.

[Hoosier]

Big jump in Illinois cases... +2724.  But there were like 16000 tests submitted since yesterday, which is the most in a single day.

I wonder if that modeling that showed Illinois peaking in mid May was factoring in increased testing capacity.  I would guess not but I am not familiar with all that goes into them.