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March Banter 2020


George BM
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1 hour ago, Mersky said:

The one post I made this am that was deleted by our wonderful moderator was this virus should not be made political. It attacks conservatives and liberals. But in her need to protect Mr Hoffman she deleted it. 

This post is very unpolitical.. science based.. and interesting... 

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7/fulltext

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This is probably the most interesting paragraph: 

 

"Second, surveillance of a newly emerged pathogen is typically biased towards detecting clinically severe cases, especially at the start of an epidemic when diagnostic capacity is low (figure 1). Estimates of the case fatality ratio can thus be biased upwards until the extent of clinically milder disease is determined. Data from the epicentre of the outbreak in Wuhan have primarily been obtained through hospital surveillance and, thus, are likely to represent patients with moderate or severe illness, with atypical pneumonia or acute respiratory distress being used to define suspected cases eligible for testing.In these individuals, clinical outcomes are likely to be more severe, so any estimates of the case fatality ratio will be higher. Elsewhere in mainland China and the rest of the world, countries and administrative regions alert to the risk of infection being imported via travel initially instituted surveillance for COVID-19 with a broader set of clinical criteria for defining a suspected case. These criteria typically included a combination of symptoms (eg, cough and fever) combined with recent travel history to the affected region (Wuhan, or Hubei province). Such surveillance is likely to detect clinically mild cases but, by initially restricting testing to those with a travel history or link, might have missed other symptomatic cases."

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Just now, PDIII said:

This is probably the most interesting paragraph: 

 

"Second, surveillance of a newly emerged pathogen is typically biased towards detecting clinically severe cases, especially at the start of an epidemic when diagnostic capacity is low (figure 1). Estimates of the case fatality ratio can thus be biased upwards until the extent of clinically milder disease is determined. Data from the epicentre of the outbreak in Wuhan have primarily been obtained through hospital surveillance and, thus, are likely to represent patients with moderate or severe illness, with atypical pneumonia or acute respiratory distress being used to define suspected cases eligible for testing.In these individuals, clinical outcomes are likely to be more severe, so any estimates of the case fatality ratio will be higher. Elsewhere in mainland China and the rest of the world, countries and administrative regions alert to the risk of infection being imported via travel initially instituted surveillance for COVID-19 with a broader set of clinical criteria for defining a suspected case. These criteria typically included a combination of symptoms (eg, cough and fever) combined with recent travel history to the affected region (Wuhan, or Hubei province). Such surveillance is likely to detect clinically mild cases but, by initially restricting testing to those with a travel history or link, might have missed other symptomatic cases."

It's a good article, but its applicability is limited. Basically, in a perfectly functioning health care system with adequate medical treatment and no shortages, the CFR is 1.38 and IFR is 0.66. 

 

But as we've learned all over the world, the only places to have kept a perfectly functioning health care system is China, South Korea, Japan, Singapore. Because they did not let their health care systems become overwhelmed.

 

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4 minutes ago, PDIII said:

so its like reporting record highs on the day the thermometer was invented...   

Actually, if you want to make a good weather analogy, this is basically the difference between a category 3 hitting Tokyo, and a category 3 hitting Honduras. 

Same punch is packed, but one place is better prepared than the other.

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We can argue about whether the fatality rate is 0.4%, 0.6%, 1% or whatever, and it is useful to find out, but on the ground conditions in the hospitals are what really matter.  You see what has happened in some countries overseas and what we are seeing now around NYC and it speaks for itself. 

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Just now, Hoosier said:

We can argue about whether the fatality rate is 0.4%, 0.6%, 1% or whatever, and it is useful to find out, but on the ground conditions in the hospitals are what really matter.  You see what has happened in some countries overseas and what we are seeing now around NYC and it speaks for itself. 

Yup. It's a raw numbers game at this point.

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1 hour ago, Mersky said:

The one post I made this am that was deleted by our wonderful moderator was this virus should not be made political. It attacks conservatives and liberals. But in her need to protect Mr Hoffman she deleted it. 

Yea not sure how you said it to get deleted but whenever I’ve had something removed it was because I was wrong. The mods here aren’t tyranical but you’ve started beef with virtually everyone since you got here.  No one, least of all me, needs protection from you.  And while the virus isn’t political the governments policy towards it is. Literally.  So your post makes no sense. I do think we need to be careful to keep it as non hostile and neutral as possible and my pillowguy post was on the edge but I admitted my bias and that maybe I was wrong and I explained my reaction.  We do need to be able to comment on stuff in general given how big a deal this is. 

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Just now, supernovasky said:

It's a good article, but its applicability is limited. Basically, in a perfectly functioning health care system with adequate medical treatment and no shortages, the CFR is 1.38 and IFR is 0.66. 

 

But as we've learned all over the world, the only places to have kept a perfectly functioning health care system is China, South Korea, Japan, Singapore. Because they did not let their health care systems become overwhelmed.

 

even at a couple 100,000 death.. it is still just a blip on the radar... a couple of million might have raised the eyebrows of the WHO (if the flu season was particularly severe this year).. otherwise.. I really do not think that people would have notice this was happening if nothing ever came of it.. I don't believe that china had any effective lockdown... the vast majority of that country lives in what we could consider ultra poverty.. people need to leave every day for food and water.. what we see as people driving to the grocery stores here in america.. is overcrowded markets in china.. Just like the US lets people go to the grocery store.. people in china were allowed to crowd markets even during the quarenteen..

I am sure there is propoganda out there that would show otherwise.. but people need to eat....

Do you know which countries are doing nothing?  Isnt Sweden and half of the third world basically ignoring this?  I would be curious to see what happens with them...

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Actually I just had an epiphany!!! Now I know why the hospitals are empty.. it is because the Corona Virus is moving the death process along in a much more efficient manner for the people that are in there was out to begin with.  Maybe all the people doing that were in perpetual ICU/ Rehab/ Hospice rotation are one and done and it is actually freeing up beds.  

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9 minutes ago, PDIII said:

even at a couple 100,000 death.. it is still just a blip on the radar... a couple of million might have raised the eyebrows of the WHO (if the flu season was particularly severe this year).. otherwise.. I really do not think that people would have notice this was happening if nothing ever came of it.. I don't believe that china had any effective lockdown... the vast majority of that country lives in what we could consider ultra poverty.. people need to leave every day for food and water.. what we see as people driving to the grocery stores here in america.. is overcrowded markets in china.. Just like the US lets people go to the grocery store.. people in china were allowed to crowd markets even during the quarenteen..

I am sure there is propoganda out there that would show otherwise.. but people need to eat....

Do you know which countries are doing nothing?  Isnt Sweden and half of the third world basically ignoring this?  I would be curious to see what happens with them...

You keep getting hung up on this. No other cause of death in this country causes such chaos in our hospital systems. This disease doesn’t just kill but results in extremely long hospitalizations and infects medical staff like nothing else. It all compounds.

 

As has been said, reality in the ground right now is our hospital systems are strained and heading to break.

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Just now, supernovasky said:

You keep getting hung up on this. No other cause of death in this country causes such chaos in our hospital systems. This disease doesn’t just kill but results in extremely long hospitalizations and infects medical staff like nothing else. It all compounds.

 

As has been said, reality in the ground right now is our hospital systems are strained and heading to break.

Did you look at the video from the reporter in New York?

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31 minutes ago, PDIII said:

even at a couple 100,000 death.. it is still just a blip on the radar... a couple of million might have raised the eyebrows of the WHO (if the flu season was particularly severe this year).. otherwise.. I really do not think that people would have notice this was happening if nothing ever came of it.. I don't believe that china had any effective lockdown... the vast majority of that country lives in what we could consider ultra poverty.. people need to leave every day for food and water.. what we see as people driving to the grocery stores here in america.. is overcrowded markets in china.. Just like the US lets people go to the grocery store.. people in china were allowed to crowd markets even during the quarenteen..

I am sure there is propoganda out there that would show otherwise.. but people need to eat....

Do you know which countries are doing nothing?  Isnt Sweden and half of the third world basically ignoring this?  I would be curious to see what happens with them...

 

20 minutes ago, PDIII said:

Actually I just had an epiphany!!! Now I know why the hospitals are empty.. it is because the Corona Virus is moving the death process along in a much more efficient manner for the people that are in there was out to begin with.  Maybe all the people doing that were in perpetual ICU/ Rehab/ Hospice rotation are one and done and it is actually freeing up beds.  

 

19 minutes ago, PDIII said:

Did you look at the video from the reporter in New York?

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Well, it's almost April 1st. Tomorrow, possibly the biggest April snowstorm for the DC - Baltimore and the Delmarva region is nearly certain to occur tomorrow, with over a foot of snow in northeast Maryland projected by the CRAS and the NAVGEM models. Buckle up people. We thought winter was over 2 months ago. At least it will be 60s and 70s right after the snowstorm for highs, marking the start of actual spring. Blizzard warnings have just been posted for much of eastern West Virginia, and the temps are in the upper teens here as of right now.

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1 minute ago, JakkelWx said:

Well, it's almost April 1st. Tomorrow, possibly the biggest April snowstorm for the DC - Baltimore and the Delmarva region is nearly certain to occur tomorrow, with over a foot of snow in northeast Maryland projected by the CRAS and the NAVGEM models. Buckle up people. We thought winter was over 2 months ago. At least it will be 60s and 70s right after the snowstorm for highs, marking the start of actual spring. Blizzard warnings have just been posted for much of eastern West Virginia, and the temps are in the upper teens here as of right now.

Cocaine is a helluva drug

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  • H2O unpinned this topic

 

11 hours ago, Mersky said:

The one post I made this am that was deleted by our wonderful moderator was this virus should not be made political. It attacks conservatives and liberals. But in her need to protect Mr Hoffman she deleted it. 

i'm not here to protect anyone. and i'm not the only one to remove your posts. :) stay well

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35 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Me too.  I've got an "old" yard and there are a lot of uneven areas that I've thought about trying to fix.  I don't even mind if its a two or three year project, but I'm not sure when or how to go about it.

I’m dealing with that now. I recently cleared another 1/2 acre in the back and the ground was too uneven to mow. I’ve been using my pick axe, shovel and rake to just chop up then level everything. It would be much easier with a cultivator but I like doing things by hand to get a workout. I’m not really a fan of using the weights so if I can get a workout while doing something productive that’s better.  I’m sure it would be a lot easier to buy sand and topsoil but it’s way too large an area for that. $$$

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44 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m dealing with that now. I recently cleared another 1/2 acre in the back and the ground was too uneven to mow. I’ve been using my pick axe, shovel and rake to just chop up then level everything. It would be much easier with a cultivator but I like doing things by hand to get a workout. I’m not really a fan of using the weights so if I can get a workout while doing something productive that’s better.  I’m sure it would be a lot easier to buy sand and topsoil but it’s way too large an area for that. $$$

FWIW - I can relate to not caring for weights and preferring to get a workout the natural way.  When it came to reclaiming about a 1/2 acre of our property back in 2010, just the workout from power tools alone was enough for me.  We had weeds 5 feet high, old stumps, trees, rocks and all kinds of stuff that we removed to reclaim the space.  Filled two 30 yard dumpsters and 4 dump trucks with the debris.  

In reference to the uneven terrain in your newly recovered back yard, here's a few thoughts...  Our half acre was also rough - like a washboard.  So, I rented one of the best contraptions ever invented by mankind.  It's called a power landscape rake.  You need a smallish tractor with a rear 540rpm PTO to power it and tow it.  A category 1 hitch on a small BX Kubota works well - can rent them at Home Depot for a reasonable fee with loader and backhoe if you have heavy stuff to move.  

The power rake we rented was 5 foot long and it worked extremely well behind my BX Kubota.  The power rake has a long cylinder about 10" in diameter with a bunch of solid carbide teeth that stick out a couple inches.  The cylinder spins at a decent whirl and pulverizes anything it comes in contact with.  It will kick out rocks that weigh 10 lbs without missing a beat.  When at an angle the rake does a phenomenal job leveling things out and wind-rowing the debris it kicks up.  You can adjust how much "bite" the rake takes with each pass and with a little trial and error, we were smoothing things out and clearing the rocks in 5 foot swaths.  One afternoon with the power rake and our ground was smooth and ready for the seed (300 lbs of it) and 50/50 mix on top. (200 cubic yards of the mix)

In the end, I managed to grow the best 1/2 acre of crabgrass and other weeds you've ever seen.  But, it's level and free of ruts and much better than what we started with.  

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Me too.  I've got an "old" yard and there are a lot of uneven areas that I've thought about trying to fix.  I don't even mind if its a two or three year project, but I'm not sure when or how to go about it.
You are în need of about 1 cubic yard of sand pe 1000sqft to get about 1/2" coverage. Also prior to doing this you need to take the lawn/weeds/grass to scalping mode. Get it close as possible to the ground that way the sand will work easier I to the canopy of the grass crowns. It will be hard work and will have to do it over 2 season minimum. Sand Works better than compost since organic matter breaks down overtime. No nutrient added value from the sand but the purpose of this is to level the lawn. Good luck and there are plenty of YouTube vids on this also.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

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One thing about livin on 6 acres in Central Texas is I keep plenty busy. Mowing grass, its already spring down here big time, 62 dewpoints. Feedin the miniature donkeys, cats, puppies, cleaning the house, disinfecting the touchpoints all over, sweeping all the oak leaves all the time, work work work! Sure I'm "quarantined" but I dont get to sit around and "enjoy" it like so many folks. Gotta keep busy and work is life down here in the Deep South LOL!

 

I keep an eye on the news but I dont let it bother me too much, I keep busy and I am damn GLAD I dont live in New York City.

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