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George BM

March Banter 2020

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18 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Maybe these remote work companies? There’s a ton of money and time being saved with these virtual meetings. 

I gotta tell you - I miss the office and don’t want to work from home as a normal part of workday after experiencing this.

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Light rain began about 20 minutes ago, 46 degrees. Yes, it does rain in Augusta, once in a while.

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7 hours ago, mappy said:

you should go to to school, take some classes, report back. 

correct. hogan is going to enforce it now because too many aren't taking it seriously. see PD3

Ha! 

The one big difference I did see from the order is that now curbside and other pick-up of food from any restaurants is suspended in MD (but not in VA?).  Unless I read that incorrectly.  That was kind of a shocker, but that may be more temporary, not sure.  I believe you can have things delivered...if a place offers that.  I had patronized "carry-out" places a couple of times recently just to support them, as I know they're going to really suffer economically.

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8 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Ha! 

The one big difference I did see from the order is that now curbside and other pick-up of food from any restaurants is suspended in MD (but not in VA?).  Unless I read that incorrectly.  That was kind of a shocker, but that may be more temporary, not sure.  I believe you can have things delivered...if a place offers that.  I had patronized "carry-out" places a couple of times recently just to support them, as I know they're going to really suffer economically.

? Restaurants are still doing carry out in Md

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8 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Ha! 

The one big difference I did see from the order is that now curbside and other pick-up of food from any restaurants is suspended in MD (but not in VA?).  Unless I read that incorrectly.  That was kind of a shocker, but that may be more temporary, not sure.  I believe you can have things delivered...if a place offers that.  I had patronized "carry-out" places a couple of times recently just to support them, as I know they're going to really suffer economically.

https://governor.maryland.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/OLC-Interpretive-Guidance-COVID19-07.pdf
 

See the second paragraph. Restaurants can continue to do carry-out/pickup. Non-essential businesses can no longer continue pickups.  

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3 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

? Restaurants are still doing carry out in Md

 

1 minute ago, gymengineer said:

https://governor.maryland.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/OLC-Interpretive-Guidance-COVID19-07.pdf
 

See the second paragraph. Restaurants can continue to do carry-out/pickup. Non-essential businesses can no longer continue pickups.  

Great...many thanks for that correction!  That's what I get for reading it all too quickly and having my eyes gloss over the part that restaurants are still allowed.  Good to know.  My apologies for the misinformation in my earlier comment.

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It’s almost preseason, y’all. 
 

On 8/24/2019 at 10:31 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

Let’s talk about tropical storm Dorian.

It was clear yesterday that 99L was well on its way to becoming a named storm before 98L, despite virtually no model support and lower odds of development by the NHC. What has become Dorian has benefited from a few things which I posted earlier: good SSTs, an area of good TCHP, and low shear. 

Dry and stable air has lurked the entire time, and that has impacted the system’s ability to maintain deep convection, but for the most part Dorian exists in a small but strong enough pocket of moisture to survive.

The tiny tropical storm may not look like much right now overhead, but under the hood, it is by far the best organized tropical system this season. These have been posted elsewhere and are a little older, but notice the curved banding and inner core development.

kj8Fdyq.jpg

uPxThjR.jpg

Tl2IZbi.jpg

It’s often important to look deeper if you want to have a better understanding of tropical. Despite IR satellite appearance, both the size—a small storm is more likely to intensify and weaken quickly—and nascent inner core of Dorian are a blaring signal for rapid intensification. Remember that the greatest factor for RI is the presence of a strong inner core.

The SHIPS model is sniffing it out, perhaps too much.

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=   7% is   1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.2%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  23% is   2.1 times climatological mean (10.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  16% is   2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  12% is   2.7 times climatological mean ( 3.8%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  10% is   4.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=  13% is   2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.5%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=  21% is   4.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold=  33% is   6.2 times climatological mean ( 5.4%)

So what does this mean and what will happen? Well, first, RI is never a lock. Dry air could keep a lid on intensification, keeping it gradual rather than explosive. We need to continue to watch the next 48 hours as things can take off quickly with diminishing wind shear. 

Second, no one should be locking onto long term solutions, from operational or ensemble guidance. A TUTT—essentially an upper level trough, is forecast to menace the Caribbean. That could tear apart a weak storm. The upper level pattern will be impacted by the placement of these subtle features.

The stronger Dorian is, the less likely it gets ripped apart. Even if it does get torn apart, if Hispaniola is avoided, remnants may have a shot at redevelopment in the western Atlantic. 

Bottom line: a lot is up in the air right now. If you like tracking tropical, watch Dorian. This one has already surprised and likely has more interesting moments to come.

 

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6 hours ago, Chris78 said:

I manage a Grocery store up your way and we have put many things in place over the last 2 weeks trying to keep our customers and store associates safe.

**** plexi glass installed at each register.

**** face shields available for associates.

**** practicing 6 foot social distancing in the store and especially at the registers  

**** cleaning the register belts between each order

***** dedicated cleaning and sanitizing associates from open to close cleaning high touch items/areas every hour. ( freezer door handles, cart handles, pin pads, etc)

**** removing hand baskets and small shopping carts from the sales floor. Only using large shopping carts help maintain 6 ft distancing.

**** removing perimeter displays to  help maintain 6 ft distancing. 

 

Coming into contact with hundreds or thousands of strangers everyday can be a little scary but people gotta eat lol.

You're amazing and if your store was near me, I would go to it exclusively.

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21 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Yep...pre season.  7 months until November.  

It’s a niña. Close the shades and make an early reservation to The Panic Room! I can’t wait to roll out some of the new features, including: snakes on a door!

giphy.gif?cid=19f5b51aef2c007d3ab0d9735b

 

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Nothing could be as bad as this winter was...I mean it was practically 0.  I will take anything.  However please reserve me something on a high floor for Thanksgiving weekend through TBD

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1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It’s a niña. Close the shades and make an early reservation to The Panic Room! I can’t wait to roll out some of the new features, including: snakes on a door!

 

Overall the typical Nina can certainly suck. My best, most memorable snow experiences over recent winters occurred in Ninas though. Back to back at the beach, baby. At least a chase should be within a reasonable distance, whether its the western highlands or the immediate coast. This last winter was an absolute dog for the most part unless you were willing to travel to NY state or NNE.

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47 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Nothing could be as bad as this winter was...I mean it was practically 0.  I will take anything.  However please reserve me something on a high floor for Thanksgiving weekend through TBD

I got you. Penciling you in now for the early-bird rate for the Penthouse suite.

14 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Overall the typical Nina can certainly suck. My best, most memorable snow experiences over recent winters occurred in Ninas though. Back to back at the beach, baby. At least a chase should be within a reasonable distance, whether its the western highlands or the immediate coast. This last winter was an absolute dog for the most part unless you were willing to travel to NY state or NNE.

Let’s get another 950mb low just off the coast. 

XSbPCFB.jpg

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I know this is serious but I can’t stand sensational journalism...Dan Satterfield (eastern shore weather dude) just posted on Facebook that Covid19 has now passed the 9/11 death toll...and we saw this one coming.

and so does the flu and a multitude of other causes of death every freakin year. 

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1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It’s a niña. Close the shades and make an early reservation to The Panic Room! I can’t wait to roll out some of the new features, including: snakes on a door!

giphy.gif?cid=19f5b51aef2c007d3ab0d9735b

 

Haha!  That is f'ing hilarious!!  Do the snakes also serve drinks??  May need to work on their form a bit before December...

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7 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Haha!  That is f'ing hilarious!!  Do the snakes also serve drinks??  May need to work on their form a bit before December...

You know, we just shut things down here and I have a whole new crop of talent coming in. We’re at the training stage.

The snakes will be immaculately dressed. Only the best for my staff.

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5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

You know, we just shut things down here and I have a whole new crop of talent coming in. We’re at the training stage.

The snakes will be immaculately dressed. Only the best for my staff.

I would expect nothing less after the improvements this year!  Hopefully by then, the new talent won't have to remain 6 feet from you.

And...bow ties for the snakes!!  Don't forget the bow ties!!  Gotta stay...sophisticated!  (The top hat helps, too!)

Snek(PIO) - Drawception

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Changing the subject, some snow porn from a late spring blast here in central Oregon. 

Had a coating at my house overnight and flurries all day with temps in the mid 30's.

However, the higher elevations (above 4500' ) have been pummeled the past 48 hours.  Ski resort is closed because of Covid but drove out and took some photos this morning .

At least 3 feet of new snow and more than 10 feet on the ground.  They are, fingers crossed reopening in May sometime? Base should be fine and more snow is coming. 

 

 

 

_DSC0015.jpg

_DSC0014.jpg

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8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

That’s awesome. Truth be told I hate snow at this point. I want warmth and sun. 

Ha ha, I never hate snow,  yet love it is alway so close by.  The bulbs are up at my house and trees are budding out. 

 

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.16 rain last 3 hours. 41 degrees at 7:44.  30 miles to my west at 4000 ft., 1-2 inches of snowfall during the past 2 hours.

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Looking like it's going to be the worst day of the pandemic yet. Waiting on final numbers but we could be at 25k cases - 750 deaths. Which would still be exponential growth. :-/ 

 

We're gonna be cooped up for a long time.

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1 hour ago, Mersky said:

The one post I made this am that was deleted by our wonderful moderator was this virus should not be made political. It attacks conservatives and liberals. But in her need to protect Mr Hoffman she deleted it. 

This post is very unpolitical.. science based.. and interesting... 

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7/fulltext

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This is probably the most interesting paragraph: 

 

"Second, surveillance of a newly emerged pathogen is typically biased towards detecting clinically severe cases, especially at the start of an epidemic when diagnostic capacity is low (figure 1). Estimates of the case fatality ratio can thus be biased upwards until the extent of clinically milder disease is determined. Data from the epicentre of the outbreak in Wuhan have primarily been obtained through hospital surveillance and, thus, are likely to represent patients with moderate or severe illness, with atypical pneumonia or acute respiratory distress being used to define suspected cases eligible for testing.In these individuals, clinical outcomes are likely to be more severe, so any estimates of the case fatality ratio will be higher. Elsewhere in mainland China and the rest of the world, countries and administrative regions alert to the risk of infection being imported via travel initially instituted surveillance for COVID-19 with a broader set of clinical criteria for defining a suspected case. These criteria typically included a combination of symptoms (eg, cough and fever) combined with recent travel history to the affected region (Wuhan, or Hubei province). Such surveillance is likely to detect clinically mild cases but, by initially restricting testing to those with a travel history or link, might have missed other symptomatic cases."

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so its like reporting record highs on the day the thermometer was invented...   

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Just now, PDIII said:

This is probably the most interesting paragraph: 

 

"Second, surveillance of a newly emerged pathogen is typically biased towards detecting clinically severe cases, especially at the start of an epidemic when diagnostic capacity is low (figure 1). Estimates of the case fatality ratio can thus be biased upwards until the extent of clinically milder disease is determined. Data from the epicentre of the outbreak in Wuhan have primarily been obtained through hospital surveillance and, thus, are likely to represent patients with moderate or severe illness, with atypical pneumonia or acute respiratory distress being used to define suspected cases eligible for testing.In these individuals, clinical outcomes are likely to be more severe, so any estimates of the case fatality ratio will be higher. Elsewhere in mainland China and the rest of the world, countries and administrative regions alert to the risk of infection being imported via travel initially instituted surveillance for COVID-19 with a broader set of clinical criteria for defining a suspected case. These criteria typically included a combination of symptoms (eg, cough and fever) combined with recent travel history to the affected region (Wuhan, or Hubei province). Such surveillance is likely to detect clinically mild cases but, by initially restricting testing to those with a travel history or link, might have missed other symptomatic cases."

It's a good article, but its applicability is limited. Basically, in a perfectly functioning health care system with adequate medical treatment and no shortages, the CFR is 1.38 and IFR is 0.66. 

 

But as we've learned all over the world, the only places to have kept a perfectly functioning health care system is China, South Korea, Japan, Singapore. Because they did not let their health care systems become overwhelmed.

 

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4 minutes ago, PDIII said:

so its like reporting record highs on the day the thermometer was invented...   

Actually, if you want to make a good weather analogy, this is basically the difference between a category 3 hitting Tokyo, and a category 3 hitting Honduras. 

Same punch is packed, but one place is better prepared than the other.

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