PackGrad05 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Local weather stations (Raleigh area) still going with "little to no accumulation", even with recent model data. They are leaning heavily on the Euro ensembles and they showed the probability of 1" at 36%. That number likely went down to 10-15% with the 18Z data based on QPF. One thing to notice on the euro map just posted is the tight gradient of QPF in eastern NC. Shifts in that 20-50 miles will make a big difference.. But it still looks like a very light event. At this point I would forecast at most a slushy 1-2 inches on grassy surfaces for eastern NC... not much elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Before that argument begins, can one of you north Georgia or Upstate SC folks pull up and post soil temps prior to our Saturday event a week or so ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 1 minute ago, msuwx said: Before that argument begins, can one of you north Georgia or Upstate SC folks pull up and post soil temps prior to our Saturday event a week or so ago? My 2 inch soil temp on Feb 7th was 43.7 and 55.5 on the 6th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Interested in seeing 18Z EPS numbers, but the cut back on the ECMWF is not a good sign. Very anemic owning to more development off the coast and not throwing much moisture inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Just now, SnowDawg said: My 2 inch soil temp on Feb 7th was 43.7 and 55.5 on the 6th. Thanks. How much did you pick up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 These tweets from Eric along with the massive bust by the global models just over a week ago is why I'm willing to go out on a limb with the short range guidance. If they trend downward as we approach, I'm out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 1 minute ago, msuwx said: Thanks. How much did you pick up? 5.5 inches. Stuck immediately and admittedly a very heavy frost that morning helped with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 10 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: My 2 inch soil temp on Feb 7th was 43.7 and 55.5 on the 6th. It was 44.8 and 58.3 here and we had a much later start(11ish), but still managed to accumulate an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 29 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: 24 HR QPF and snow total. Hopefully it's in the lower half of its own ensemble suite. This ends at 12z Friday. Much of the storm on the NAM occurred after this time. Is there anything on the 18z Euro after 12z Friday? TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 1 minute ago, tarheelwx said: This ends at 12z Friday. Much of the storm on the NAM occurred after this time. Is there anything on the 18z Euro after 12z Friday? TW Not really. Last frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, tarheelwx said: This ends at 12z Friday. Much of the storm on the NAM occurred after this time. Is there anything on the 18z Euro after 12z Friday? TW It only goes out to 90 on the off runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Just now, SnowDawg said: Not really. Last frame. Temps look good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 The NAM gets us excited, then the EURO says , don't get to happy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 12 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: The NAM gets us excited, then the EURO says , don't get to happy! Euro has been horrendous here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpstateSCGamecock Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Brad P Charlotte Met . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Extreme NEGA Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 The mountains always have a good chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 SREF mean is about the same here. Interestingly, the SREF and GFS agree on where the focus of accumulations occur, from about Lumberton to New Bern to ILM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 The CMC looks N with precip, but has mix in S NC and all rain in Upstate! It’s usually a cold model, that is concerning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Big issue with this system is placement of the high. It is NOT in ideal territory. Going to be hard to bleed that cold surface air over the mountains...always delayed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Extreme NEGA Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Yep. PA or NY would be great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 0z NAM running now.... will it hang on to a big threat or cave to what the Euro is displaying... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 10 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: Big issue with this system is placement of the high. It is NOT in ideal territory. Going to be hard to bleed that cold surface air over the mountains...always delayed. It’s sprawling and one of the strongest we’ve seen all winter. It looks on some of the models, as if a wedge tries to form Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Wedge: always over-performs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Yeah the placement can definitely be overcome by the strength, which we have going for us. But the cold air transport will be slow if it has to cross the Apps. We see that time and time again with the models being too quick with the cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 most important NAM run in forever. HUGE! lol. Hoping it holds serve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 7 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: Big issue with this system is placement of the high. It is NOT in ideal territory. Going to be hard to bleed that cold surface air over the mountains...always delayed. 5 minutes ago, Extreme NEGA said: Yep. PA or NY would be great What on earth are you two talking about? It's a large sprawling 1047 high dropping in a pretty spot. If you are going to disagree with what is being shown, please show us your reasoning after you look at the wind direction as the system arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 National Weather Service in Raleigh is saying the same thing as of 2:50PM on Monday. Quote The high is not in a favorable location for the dense cold air to make it into NC very quickly...likely having to filter across the central Appalachians and south through VA...and so the probability of more than a rain/snow mix appears very low at this time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 4 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: 1051, nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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