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WinterWxLuvr

February Medium/Long Range Discussion

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1 hour ago, Snowchaser said:

Does anyone remember the snowstorm back in early December 2018? 
Imo I see some similarities with this one<_<

 

 

8BB4DD86-57C4-4355-932C-3B6847C740B4.png
 

NAM 18z

4FB9CEF3-778A-4948-9FDA-203EB7BEE0FA.jpeg

Yes, precip was expansive but as it moved north it hit a wall just south of DC. I think flurries made it to about Mt Vernon.

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December 2018 was when that lobe of the PV dropped down at the worst possible time setting up some serious confluence over DC on north . It literally was a brick wall. 

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3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

If only you posted this in early Dec you would have been spot-on for majority of the winter.

I knew by New Years we were pretty screwed.  But in the fall I had hope. Thing is...shift the pac forcing just a few degrees east and get the AO less positive and it’s suddenly not so awful. But when I saw where the pac ridge was setting up and the AO going crazy stupid positive it was game over.  

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1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

December 2018 was when that lobe of the PV dropped down at the worst possible time setting up some serious confluence over DC on north . It literally was a brick wall. 

Me thinks he is trolling. And if he thinks the potential late week 'event' bears any resemblance to that ...

giggle.gif.8966ee88f6abccc708ab5812a1a1b59b.gif

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9 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

December 2018 was when that lobe of the PV dropped down at the worst possible time setting up some serious confluence over DC on north . It literally was a brick wall. 

Man that one still kinda hurts...lol That turned out to be the only shot at a foot we've had since 2016 (barring a March miracle this year)

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14 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Me thinks he is trolling. And if he thinks the potential late week 'event' bears any resemblance to that ...

giggle.gif.8966ee88f6abccc708ab5812a1a1b59b.gif

You know, maybe if I drink a 12 pack and I squint my eyes then look at it cross eyed I can see a possibility. No, no that isn't working. :lol:

In all seriousness it is nice to see the SW flow that is produced by a little deeper dig instead of the westerly flow. Better able to get moisture to over flow the cold air in place. But we really need to see less suppression in front of that wave otherwise the moisture is going to only come so far north.

eta: talking about the ICON, not that I particularly believe it.

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3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Man that one still kinda hurts...lol That turned out to be the only shot at a foot we've had since 2016 (barring a March miracle this year)

You think that one hurts?  You should have been here (maybe you were?) for the infamous "Storm Which Shall Not Be Named" in December 2010 (ahem...Boxing Day, oops, I said it!).  I think that's what started @Bob Chill  and many others harming bunnies and other cute furry animals of varying types when things go wrong! 

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Just now, showmethesnow said:

You know, maybe if I drink a 12 pack and I squint my eyes then look at it cross eyed I can see a possibility. No, no that isn't working. :lol:

In all seriousness it is nice to see the SW flow that is produced by a little deeper dig instead of the westerly flow. Better able to get moisture to over flow the cold air in place. But we really need to see less suppression in front of that wave otherwise the moisture is going to only come so far north.

LOL.

That 2018 storm was a true southern slider, and that's about the only similarity to what may happen later this week. That storm featured a juiced up wave moving into a much colder air mass with legit suppression, versus this weak strung out pos in a flat, progressive flow. That storm produced 10-15" of cold powder in central NC. At best this storm will produce a few sloppy inches in those areas.

And yeah it is a long shot for our region, but still far enough out to monitor given some recent runs sharpening that vort. At best we are probably talking a period of light snow, maybe a coating, but we got little else to track in the next week to 10 days lol.

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32 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

You think that one hurts?  You should have been here (maybe you were?) for the infamous "Storm Which Shall Not Be Named" in December 2010 (ahem...Boxing Day, oops, I said it!).  I think that's what started @Bob Chill  and many others harming bunnies and other cute furry animals of varying types when things go wrong! 

Yeah that one kinda hurt too...but it wasn't as bad for me that time because I wasn't following this site or the weather models back then (so I didn't know exactly what was being shown a few days prior). But now...that one is my Exhibit A for...NEVER TRUST A NINA. Those winters will break your heart everytime (don't count 1996--that may have been once in a lifetime, lol). Next time we get one, I don't even think I'll bother much with tracking!

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57 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I knew by New Years we were pretty screwed.  But in the fall I had hope. Thing is...shift the pac forcing just a few degrees east and get the AO less positive and it’s suddenly not so awful. But when I saw where the pac ridge was setting up and the AO going crazy stupid positive it was game over.  

Sucks to just completely lose a year like this.  Perhaps the AO/NAO base state will become less unfriendly soon in the next couple of years.

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2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

This is why the ICON looks good at the surface, and what I mentioned in my post above. This is the feature to watch.

icon.thumb.png.b075df9a3859698a4b47594193a489b1.png

Yea that’s the key. I posted that loop showing how the op gfs was trending better with that a day or so ago and it promptly went the other way the next few runs. It would take a lot of work to fix that flow. But I’m sure there will be one run that looks good just to make it hurt more when it fails. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Yea that’s the key. I posted that loop showing how the op gfs was trending better with that a day or so ago and it promptly went the other way the next few runs. It would take a lot of work to fix that flow. But I’m sure there will be one run that looks good just to make it hurt more when it fails. 

Yeah we are in the range now where we are not likely to see big changes. Looks like a pretty weak wave that will get kicked out without doing much damage, even for places further south. If I had to guess now I would say an inch or 2 for central/eastern NC would be the max.

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14 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah we are in the range now where we are not likely to see big changes. Looks like a pretty weak wave that will get kicked out without doing much damage, even for places further south. If I had to guess now I would say an inch or 2 for central/eastern NC would be the max.

If I somehow managed to squeeze an inch out of this ridiculous farce of a winter, I would take it to the bank and ride off merrily into the ++++++AO sunset.  I honestly don't see it happening though.  The Fail is too strong this year.

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Just now, cbmclean said:

If I somehow managed to squeeze an inch out of this ridiculous farce of a winter, I would take it to the bank and ride off merrily into the ++++++AO sunset.  I honestly don't see it happening though.  The Fail is too strong this year.

Hope it works out. Btw my brother lives NW of Greensboro. Quite a storm there in Dec 2018. 14".

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Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

Hope it works out. Btw my brother lives NW of Greensboro. Quite a storm there in Dec 2018. 14".

So he lives NW of Greensboro NC and you live NW of Greensboro Maryland?  Did you guys plan that? :)

NW NC has actually been on a bit of a heater the two previous winters.  Two or three random waves really hit a sweet spot in various locations over there.

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2 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

So he lives NW of Greensboro NC and you live NW of Greensboro Maryland?  Did you guys plan that? :)

NW NC has actually been on a bit of a heater the two previous winters.  Two or three random waves really hit a sweet spot in various locations over there.

HA that is a bit coincidental! 

He used to live in High Point, then moved out to Oak Ridge. Nice area.

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I wouldn’t bet on it working out but the euro control and op gfs both show there is still some potential long range.  The idea of a cold dump is still there. Then we just have to get lucky. Gfs has 3 NS SWs run interference and mess up 3 straight threats. I could see that. Euro control has a beautiful west to east storm that crushes southern VA and fringed us. I can see that. I suppose I could also see us getting a hit but it requires a lot more alcohol and squinting. 

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6 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

I just got NAMed.

Verbatim surface and 850s look plenty cold enough down along the Va. NC border per Nam . Definitely would accumulate 

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