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Itstrainingtime

Central PA - February 2020

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Groundhog fails to see shadow, predicts early spring. I would have to imagine a shadow sighting with how putrid this winter has been would have warranted ending the tradition. 

Oh, and meatball subs and buffalo chicken dip for the Super Bowl. There is no sports franchise I hate more than the Kansas City Chiefs, so I'm going to be more interested in the pre-game poker with my friends and the Demi Lovato national anthem performance. May make it awkward and crank one out, you know, for America.

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21 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

Groundhog fails to see shadow, predicts early spring. I would have to imagine a shadow sighting with how putrid this winter has been would have warranted ending the tradition. 

Oh, and meatball subs and buffalo chicken dip for the Super Bowl. There is no sports franchise I hate more than the Kansas City Chiefs, so I'm going to be more interested in the pre-game poker with my friends and the Demi Lovato national anthem performance. May make it awkward and crank one out, you know, for America.

A whole  internet full of stuff and you choose to do that watching the Super Bowl?

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47 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

That’s great!

We are making Chicken Chili & Italian Brisket sandwiches for the Super Bowl.

Today could be nice with “snow TV” out the window & the game later on !

Never thought of chicken chili...All sounds good, enjoy the game!

Some snow showers would be nice.

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Snowing pretty decently currently, although with surface temps above freezing it isn’t doing much on the ground at this elevation attm . Radar showing a heavy burst incoming so I’m sure something will stick. Had 0.2” overnight.

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That heavy band of WAA snow is definitely a crush job albeit a brief one. A bit over a half inch of large aggregates and some caved roads.

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28 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

That heavy band of WAA snow is definitely a crush job albeit a brief one. A bit over a half inch of large aggregates and some caved roads.

It is making quite a bit further south that the nam or hrrr predicted.  

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WAA band ended up being a 1.0" fluff bomb this morning. That band must have had good lift in the zone snow growth wise, as snow itself appeared to be aggregated dendrites. Already starting to melt as the marginal surface temps are making this look like something you'd see on April 2 vs Feb 2. 

1.2" total on the day, which finally gets me over the 10" mark on the season. 40" to go to get to average lol. 

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29 minutes ago, canderson said:

Phil predicted an early spring. Idiot rodent doesn’t realize no one has had much of a winter.  

Lol.. if PETA had their way we could have just plugged animatronic Phil into some teleconnection indices to come to that conclusion, yikes.  

ecmwf-ensemble-nhem-avg-ao-box-0601600.thumb.png.f2c8e2cc7170e50f229629b15b99ac7d.png

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7 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Lol.. if PETA had their way we could have just plugged animatronic Phil into some teleconnection indices to come to that conclusion, yikes.  

ecmwf-ensemble-nhem-avg-ao-box-0601600.thumb.png.f2c8e2cc7170e50f229629b15b99ac7d.png

This is incredibly depressing. 

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9 minutes ago, canderson said:

This is incredibly depressing. 

Yea, the only teleconnection going for us right now in the longer range is EPO being progged to flip negative to some degree. That would generally be a good development for the eastern US in terms of winter as the negative phase (ridging into AK) typically will shut off zonal flow directly from the Pac and allow cold air to intrude into the US from western Canada. With a continued -PNA and a hyper positive NAO/AO progged, that would definitely suggest that we're going to continue to deal with limited press south of cold air and issues with storm track being too far north or northwest. The EPO is a significant driver, but I dunno if it's going to overcome such a strong state of the NAO/AO if that came to fruition. The Euro and it's ensembles was the guidance with off the charts + but all other models and ensembles still had a significant positive state progged. Some stuff is starting to take MJO back out into phase 4-5 too as well. We're going to need to see some improvement in these indexes going forward for sure.

With that said, one has to realize looking at those teleconnection forecasts that the dominant +NAO/AO sets in mainly AFTER this coming week, where it is looking like we're going to be dealing with P-type issues at various times in some or all of C-PA as well the potential for a lot of precip between these different waves set to run along the boundary. 

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@MAG5035

I think that the EPO diving toward negative around the 7th and then staying negative through at least mid month if not beyond will drive the pattern. 

The MJO is staying week near the COD with the latest forecasts. If it stays muted & does not take a big loop way out in the warm phases, then I think the -EPO can drive the pattern.

The EPS, GEFS & Canadian ensembles all agree in the -EPO heading toward neutral & then stay negative starting later this week.

I think that the Operational models will respond more to this now that we are inside of 1 week for the EPO flip to negative.

F29C763F-03F7-441C-8910-949B8DFCB9F4.png

EFA8463C-433D-49E6-AEB8-49AD97317BBA.png

31DB570D-D58E-4BB3-975E-99F3E25DBEC3.png

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22 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

 

Nice post bump !

You said at the start of this thread to find you some snow....

Even if this week doesn’t produce, I think that we will have more chances over the next 2 weeks & beyond.

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There is still a lot to resolve with the boundary storms this week with regard to precip types, timing & final tracks.

The models are getting interested in another winter storm chance this weekend that could be our best chance this week of getting a possible all snow event.

 

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2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

50 degrees at my house this Am....36 in Central Florida.  That is one the of the larger odd disparities I have run into in this topsy turvey good for nothing winter. 

Things are about to get good, thanks to the -EPO that is coming soon.

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