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John1122

February/March 2020 Winter's Last Chance Thread

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Saturday Feb. 29 has echos of Sat. Feb. 8 for the Valley. Cold air in place instead of that JIT crap for starters. Models correctly default to no snow Valley climo. We'll have to watch it as it evolves. Full and partial thicknesses are buried. 850/700 mb charts have neutral to slight WAA while remaining cold. Little far out to look at soundings but what the heck? Deep moist layer reaches forecast DGZ. Just need some isentropic lift that zone, likely verbatim but Day 6. We'll see!

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Nothing to add to Jeff's comments regarding this weekend.  

As for the period after Feb 27-March3, looks warmer on the EPS...though the control is not.  It is just more of the same.  Honestly, with COVID19 not being contained...I am all for the weather warming up ASAP.  Let's see if that virus likes warm temps and higher sun angles.  In other words, we need cold and flu season to end like yesterday.  We need the weather to warm IMHO.  I am 100% for it after this weekend.  The warm look on the MJO might actually be a blessing in disguise.  

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4 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Nothing to add to Jeff's comments regarding this weekend.  

As for the period after Feb 27-March3, looks warmer on the EPS...though the control is not.  It is just more of the same.  Honestly, with COVID19 not being contained...I am all for the weather warming up ASAP.  Let's see if that virus likes warm temps and higher sun angles.  In other words, we need cold and flu season to end like yesterday.  We need the weather to warm IMHO.  I am 100% for it after this weekend.  The warm look on the MJO might actually be a blessing in disguise.  

Agreed on all counts. Bring on severe season. 

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12 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Nothing to add to Jeff's comments regarding this weekend.  

As for the period after Feb 27-March3, looks warmer on the EPS...though the control is not.  It is just more of the same.  Honestly, with COVID19 not being contained...I am all for the weather warming up ASAP.  Let's see if that virus likes warm temps and higher sun angles.  In other words, we need cold and flu season to end like yesterday.  We need the weather to warm IMHO.  I am 100% for it after this weekend.  The warm look on the MJO might actually be a blessing in disguise.  

What are you implying? Noting to see here, totally contained, well, aside from the people that we thought did not have it, like the flight steward on Korean Air. Of course the airline conveniently misplaced the flights the person worked on...

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/25/coronavirus-latest-updates-china-asia-markets.html

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Have not heard much about Joe Bastardi in posts in any of the forums - just curious what his reasoning is behind yet another bust of a winter forecast. 


Who got it right?


.

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Thing is no one knows if this virus will stop like the flu in warmer temps.  Some reports I have read it will not.  I believe it is a bio weapon that has accidentally been released.  Plus it keeps mutating.  I am ready for warmer temps and dryer conditions away.  Amazing that we have had such odd winters last few years.  

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It's not a weapon with only 2% fatal (greater than flu less than SARs). However it could be a virus animal experiment gone awry. China shut down. Less pollution. Something about the MJO. More cold in the Southeast US. China reopens. SER in March. Well, I doubt that, but we need to get back on topic. 

Thursday snow showers are looking a little better for the Plateau and Mountains; but, I think Friday night is more interesting. 

Friday night and Saturday still looks on-track north of I-40, Plateau, Mountains and probably TRI. Might even be Knoxvegas. We'll go snow dome BNA/CHA.

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MRX goes with an Special Weater Statement and is pretty bullish for just the Wednesday Night - Thursday system for areas above 2500 ft:

...Wintry Conditions Expected across the far east Tennessee
Mountains and Mountains of southwest Virginia for late Wednesday
through Thursday Morning...

Rain will develop Wednesday as a frontal boundary moves across the
region. The periods of rain will change over to snow late
Wednesday with snow showers likely through Thursday morning,
especially across the higher elevations.

Snowfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected at or above 2500
feet across the far east Tennessee Mountains and Mountains of
southwest Virginia. Locally higher amounts in excess of 6 inches
are possible in the highest peaks of the Smoky Mountains.

Travel may become difficult due to snow covered roads and reduced
visibility. If you must travel, use caution while driving across
higher elevations roads.

Across the Plateau, and lower elevations of southwest Virginia
and northeast Tennessee, light snow accumulations are possible,
mainly on grassy and elevated surfaces.

I do wonder sometimes if the plateau is included in this or just Smokies/ Roan, etc...

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MRX says ip to an inch for the valley.

Special Weather Statement

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
334 AM EST Wed Feb 26 2020

TNZ012>017-035-042-044-046-VAZ001-002-005-006-008-261900-
Scott-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-Sullivan-Morgan-
Northwest Greene-Washington-Northwest Carter-Lee-Wise-Russell-
Including the cities of Big South Fork National, Oneida,
Smokey Junction, Elgin, Huntsville, Norma, Slick Rock, Fincastle,
La Follette, Elk Valley, Jellico, White Oak, Caryville,
Royal Blue, Lone Mountain, Sandlick, Springdale, Arthur,
Harrogate-Shawanee, Clairfield, Howard Quarter, Evanston,
Sneedville, Treadway, Kyles Ford, Mooresburg, Kingsport,
Bristol TN, South Holston Dam, Pine Orchard, High Point, Petros,
Greeneville, Johnson City, Elizabethton, Rose Hill,
Big Stone Gap, Norton, Wise, Coeburn, Appalachia, Pardee,
Hiltons, Hansonville, Lebanon, Dye, Castlewood, Honaker,
Rosedale, Benhams, Bristol VA, and Abingdon
334 AM EST Wed Feb 26 2020

...Wintry Conditions Expected Late Today into Tonight...

Rain will develop today as a frontal boundary moves across the
region. The periods of rain will change over to snow by mid to
late afternoon over some of the higher elevations, with a change
to all snow showers even in valley areas tonight.

Snowfall amounts of up to an inch will be possible across the
Northern Plateau, Southwest Virginia, and Northeast Tennesee by
late tonight, with higher amounts up to 2 inches over some of the
higher elevations.

Travel may become difficult due to snow covered roads and reduced
visibility especially over the higher elevations. If you must
travel, use caution while driving.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other local media for
further details or updates.
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Another cold front beginning to be a consistent feature around March 7th on modeling.   Speaking of head fakes, that (the never ending western trough) has been a major head fake for about five-six weeks.  That March 7th feature was at one point a fairly warm week on modeling.  Seems like the warm-up is getting chopped up and pushed back.  The 12z Euro operational has a warm-up, but that trough coming through on the 7th.  Looks like it has another lined up after that.  Variable weather in early spring.  Who knew?  LOL.

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Edit:  Should have said March 6th.  Wavelengths changing up are going to make ensembles fairly mortal during the next 3-4 weeks.  They have actually been accurate in where they are placing 500 features since about Jan 20(bringing in the LR at that time point) - they meaning the EPS.

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1 hour ago, nrgjeff said:

Euro weeklies are worse than the stock market action this week.

Time to warm it up.  I am in favor for the reasons mentioned above.  Bring on spring.  If there was ever a time for an early spring, now is the time.  

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February at TRI had seven days with at least some snow recorded at the airport.  Snow totals for February at TRI were 2.9" with thunder snow reported in Kingsport/Sullivan Co during one convective band.  Its temp average of 42.5 was the same as January.  Feb was +3.5 in regards to temps.   TRI had eleven days BN for temps in Feb vs just one in Jan.  We had 8.23" of rain which is 4.78" above normal, over twice our normal amount.  After beginning incredibly warm, the last ten days of the month were BN.   We have spoken many times on this sub-forum during several of the past years about the importance of November.  While November certainly didn't make a re-appearance, the wild swings in temperatures from October did.  And we have also talked on the sub-forum about that.  As it turns out, February was sort of a mix of November and October.  Looks like we are now headed for more AN temps, excluding next weekend's cold front.   Overall, DJF will likely be one for the record books.  This wasn't as bad as a 90s winter since February did have some snow, but it was quite similar.  In retrospect, it had a lot of similarities to 88-89 with the cold simply being displaced into November vs early December.  One other difference is the snow at lower elevations in February.  But it also had some similarities to other warm years of that decade which featured several El Nino years.  Weather models during February did a nice job of placing features at 500.  Modeling for most of winter featured a cold bias.  However, the Euro/EPS MJO was decent relative to other models.   Overall, after a shaky start, the EPS from mid-January to now has performed remarkably well(at 500) though it did miss a  cold front(at range) during mid-month.  The Weeklies on most modeling were sketchy.  

1943377877_ScreenShot2020-03-01at8_05_59AM.png.e4359b0fc84649fe487157cb4f5df83a.png

 

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MJO problems will keep the weather models as volatile as the stock market this week. Just when we think snow is possible; boom, downside reversal!

I still miss Chattanooga's ultimate upside reversal on Feb. 8 sorry I've mentioned it on two threads in five minutes. 

In all seriousness, I still consider TRI and the Upper Plateau in the game Friday night for wrap around and/or slight NWFS. Maybe I just want to ski one more time.

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34 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

MJO problems will keep the weather models as volatile as the stock market this week. Just when we think snow is possible; boom, downside reversal!

I still miss Chattanooga's ultimate upside reversal on Feb. 8 sorry I've mentioned it on two threads in five minutes. 

In all seriousness, I still consider TRI and the Upper Plateau in the game Friday night for wrap around and/or slight NWFS. Maybe I just want to ski one more time.

Great time to trade! I'll probably pickup some Ford,  lyft, and uber today or tomorrow.  Still eyeing Boeing but not ready to jump on it yet.

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