The 4 Seasons Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 NAM is ugly through 84. Not that, that means much. But not a good look, H5 or surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Just now, Snow88 said: Nam looks great Hopefully it's a sign of things to come PNA is going positive so maybe the models will adjust. I thought it was in NW Ohio - what happened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 46 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: What is causing that? A decay of the confluence? I haven't looked at much yet tonight....that seems correctable, at least to a degree... I did look briefly and I saw less confluence or a further north ULL in eastern Canada SW of Greenland and also higher ridging out west. You could see the ULL was digging on the EPS with higher heights ahead of it when comparing 18z from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 7 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Nammy hour 84 ULL In Extreme NW Ohio goos nite That’s Indiana. But No one here cares if it’s the same shit result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 22, 2020 Author Share Posted January 22, 2020 Just now, The 4 Seasons said: NAM is ugly through 84. Not that, that means much. But not a good look, H5 or surface. It looks really confused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 At the end 60-84 it got ugly, it looked better than global guidance early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Just now, The 4 Seasons said: At the end 60-84 it got ugly, it looked better than global guidance early on. Seems to be a trend among most models the last few runs... starts a bit better but the net is worse by the end of the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Just now, The 4 Seasons said: At the end 60-84 it got ugly, it looked better than global guidance early on. No matter how more favorable it looks early on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Folks, im moving the general winter posts to the January thread. Let's keep this one about the storm threat...even if it looks bad for YBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Y’all’s prolly too incorrigibly inconsolable in a state of apoplectic angst by now buuut ... The tail end of that Nam solution shows the high in eastern Ontario back builds in the last three frames. Damming noses so whatever comes up from the arcing bclinic zone like that it’s not going to get through here not in that form. Has to go underneath. Granted ... all that’s going to change of course but that’s what the Nam shows on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Y’all’s prolly too incorrigibly inconsolable in a state of apoplectic angst by now buuut ... The tail end of that Nam solution shows the high in eastern Ontario back builds in the last three frames. Damming noses so whatever comes up from the arcing bclinic zone like that it’s not going to get through here not in that form. Has to go underneath. Granted ... all that’s going to change of course but that’s what the Nam shows on this run Its not over yet- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its not over yet- it will be soon, in approximately 25 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Just now, Bostonseminole said: it will be soon, in approximately 25 minutes Nothing has ever ended because of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: Nothing has ever ended because of the GFS. Aside from faith in NCEP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: Nothing has ever ended because of the GFS. ok good luck up there. GFS already looks further north, the trend is not our friend down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Just now, Bostonseminole said: ok good luck up there. GFS already looks further north, the trend is not our friend down here. Well, the past 5 runs have all been south early, and we know how that ended up....let it play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well, the past 5 runs have all been south early, and we know how that ended up....let it play out. it's slower, maybe that will help with the evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Just now, Bostonseminole said: it's slower, maybe that will help with the evolution. Seems to be really tough to tell..not $hitting on you....pattern is just so nuanced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 It is a bit nw through hr 69...looks like a bit more n stream infusion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Seems to be really tough to tell..not $hitting on you....pattern is just so nuanced. funny how these runs have evolved, looks like the ull started further north but then ends up furter south.. the opposite earlier.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 1 minute ago, Bostonseminole said: funny how these runs have evolved, looks like the ull started further north but then ends up furter south.. the opposite earlier.. This run is stronger...can say that. More N stream injection.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 still pretty far north into PA and probably headed over white plains with the ULL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Just now, Bostonseminole said: still pretty far north into PA and probably headed over white plains with the ULL Yea. No bueno. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Confluence looks a hair better, though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Isn't gaining as much latitude now...we'll see- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Confluence looks a hair better, though? That’s gonna’ be the thing to watch during tomorrow’s runs. How strong is the confluence and does it hold or does it weaken and slide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Bit better than 18z abomination.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 north of pike, outside 495 up into NH/VT/ME do well.. the rest . blah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Slowing down a bit, too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ursa99 Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 I can dream... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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