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Mid to Long Range Threats

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People really need to stop giving any credit to JB, but I get it, wishing for snow is like a crack addiction. As Don pointed out, the chances of getting big snows are statistically very limited.

Today is glorious! Finally feels like winter! Too bad it won't last.

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33 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

People really need to stop giving any credit to JB, but I get it, wishing for snow is like a crack addiction. As Don pointed out, the chances of getting big snows are statistically very limited.

Today is glorious! Finally feels like winter! Too bad it won't last.

Yeah, it's a nice day outside. Cool and the sky has that pale blue winter look.

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14 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Didn’t you get a foot in the last March storm of 2018? I had 10-11 here in Metuchen. The first March storm the CCB ended up just to our west. We did have some nice thunder snow to start that event. Places with not that much elevation had 1-2 feet just to our west. 

 

March 2017 ended up trending west inside 24 hours. It happens unfortunately. 

 

 

No, we didn't get quite that much, but 10-11 does happen, not a lot, but the two footers in March are very rare. Areas to my south ( Monmouth ) and North got the bulk of the snow.

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4 hours ago, PB-99 said:

 

This winter is akin to a typical Met`s season . A B/N November ( when it didn`t  matter ) and then a complete whiff the rest of the way.

Just like when the Met`s win in April and then end up being eliminated by the end of July. 

 

@psv88, don`t get nasty lol. 

 

That's a perfect analogy. Well done sir, well done

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4 hours ago, PB-99 said:

 

This winter is akin to a typical Met`s season . A B/N November ( when it didn`t  matter ) and then a complete whiff the rest of the way.

Just like when the Met`s win in April and then end up being eliminated by the end of July. 

 

@psv88, don`t get nasty lol. 

 

Yep, wasted a good pattern in November and early December because it was to early climo wise. Next November I would like to see it torch from beginning to end.

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2 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

No, we didn't get quite that much, but 10-11 does happen, not a lot, but the two footers in March are very rare. Areas to my south ( Monmouth ) and North got the bulk of the snow.

Agree, 2 footers are very rare in March. But March 2018 was a historic month for Nj. It was the 4th snowiest in New Brunswick history. How much did you have in the second storm? Nws had 9-11 in your area. That’s real good for March.

BC4B4E6F-61DD-4759-A325-8EE0F83B1413.png

36016E2A-D15C-4DBC-97C5-03533DC652C4.png

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Euro has a cold shot next week then we warm up again. Snow mean is like .3 lol. You can forget about snow for the rest of the month.

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2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Euro has a cold shot next week then we warm up again. Snow mean is like .3 lol. You can forget about snow for the rest of the month.

This month is a total lost cause, EPS, GEFS and GEPS have none, zip zero for snow come 3/1, even the op GFS at 384 hours had nada 

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How bad is this winter ? 

 

BN Day 5- 10 in mid FEB  and not even a hint of snow. 

 

1582545600-aJAEiSl0PZE.png

 

Pretty big bust by the EPS for the 1st time this winter too.

 

Image

 

 

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49 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

How bad is this winter ? 

 

BN Day 5- 10 in mid FEB  and not even a hint of snow. 

 

1582545600-aJAEiSl0PZE.png

 

Pretty big bust by the EPS for the 1st time this winter too.

 

Image

 

 

This was the worst EPS run of the winter hard to believe it’s really mid-February just wall to wall ugliness through 3/1

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2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

This month is a total lost cause, EPS, GEFS and GEPS have none, zip zero for snow come 3/1, even the op GFS at 384 hours had nada 

sweet

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4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

This month is a total lost cause, EPS, GEFS and GEPS have none, zip zero for snow come 3/1, even the op GFS at 384 hours had nada 

That's good,  no where to go but up from here lol

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1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

head south

gfs_asnow_us_27.png

While the GFS is largely on its own with this idea, it should be noted that during winter 1972-73, Columbia, SC picked up 16.0" snow on February 9-10. That winter, just 2.8" snow fell in New York City and only a trace was recorded in Philadelphia.

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14 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

While the GFS is largely on its own with this idea, it should be noted that during winter 1972-73, Columbia, SC picked up 16.0" snow on February 9-10. That winter, just 2.8" snow fell in New York City and only a trace was recorded in Philadelphia.

No Don - Euro had this idea too

sn10_acc.conus.png

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20 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

No Don - Euro had this idea too

sn10_acc.conus.png

I was referring to today. That was yesterday’s 12z run. Both today’s 0z and 12z runs dropped the storm.

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16 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Agree, 2 footers are very rare in March. But March 2018 was a historic month for Nj. It was the 4th snowiest in New Brunswick history. How much did you have in the second storm? Nws had 9-11 in your area. That’s real good for March.

BC4B4E6F-61DD-4759-A325-8EE0F83B1413.png

36016E2A-D15C-4DBC-97C5-03533DC652C4.png

March of 18 was excellent here on SI...Had 25" total for month and 13.5" with the 21st-22nd event.

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8 minutes ago, doncat said:

March of 18 was excellent here on SI...Had 25" total for month and 13.5" with the 21st-22nd event.

Snowiest March/April in my life in SW CT. 

10.  9.5.  2.5 and in April 6

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9 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Snowiest March/April in my life in SW CT. 

10.  9.5.  2.5 and in April 6

Yeah had another 3.5" on Apr. 2nd...That was also my coldest April on station record.

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1 hour ago, doncat said:

March of 18 was excellent here on SI...Had 25" total for month and 13.5" with the 21st-22nd event.

What did you measure for the first event in March? We got screwed here by substance with the CCB to my west. We got to 6 in Metuchen but crawled our way there. The following system more then made up for it 

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2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

What did you measure for the first event in March? We got screwed here by substance with the CCB to my west. We got to 6 in Metuchen but crawled our way there. The following system more then made up for it 

March 7th had 8.0".

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i flew back from florida a few days after the march 21 storm and it looked like it never happened

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27 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

i flew back from florida a few days after the march 21 storm and it looked like it never happened

Yeah. That snow was decently powdery for a late March event. I think by the end of the following day of the storm I had more snow left from March 7th lol 

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9 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Yeah. That snow was decently powdery for a late March event. I think by the end of the following day of the storm I had more snow left from March 7th lol 

raw snowfall numbers don't tell the whole story. a foot of paste is going to have more impact than 18" of fluff 

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https://longrangesnowcenter.net/2020/02/16/north-america-on-the-long-term-16th-feb/
 

My final long range snowfall forecast for the season. Looks bleak for the Eastern US unfortunately. Similar negating factors as there have been all winter.

I also verified my seasonal forecast from November. I predicted an average season, that ended up being below average for the Northeast coast. The interior didn’t do much better either. 

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11 hours ago, forkyfork said:

i flew back from florida a few days after the march 21 storm and it looked like it never happened

The snow that night was amazing because I’m not used to seeing a foot of paste on everything-the paste snow events on the south shore are typically short lived and go to rain like 2/13/14. 2 days later it was almost gone. 

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On 2/14/2020 at 2:54 PM, Allsnow said:

Agree, 2 footers are very rare in March. But March 2018 was a historic month for Nj. It was the 4th snowiest in New Brunswick history. How much did you have in the second storm? Nws had 9-11 in your area. That’s real good for March.

BC4B4E6F-61DD-4759-A325-8EE0F83B1413.png

36016E2A-D15C-4DBC-97C5-03533DC652C4.png

Says 11.5, so be it. Good by March standards. Goos any time really. Think we aren't seeing any 2  footers for awhile.

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