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Kmlwx

2020 Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - General Thread

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4 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

I'm wondering if any surprise storms develop this afternoon, there is a healthy CU field and it looks like they're trying for vertical growth

Latest HRRR run has some decent looking storms coming through around 05z. 

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12 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Latest HRRR run has some decent looking storms coming through around 05z. 

     yeah, it will be interesting to see whether it maintains this solution.     The NAM nest has been semi-consistent with an evening threat a couple of hours earlier.    The NSSL-WRF (ARW2) is the only model that has convection in the metro area before 00z.

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48 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Radar seems ahead of both NAM and Hrrr regarding storm formation. 

I thought the same.

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52 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Radar seems ahead of both NAM and Hrrr regarding storm formation. 

 

3 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

I thought the same.

I'm guessing that could be good because we might get the storms in before sunset?

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3 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

 

I'm guessing that could be good because we might get the storms in before sunset?

Latest hrrr gets storms in around 9-10pm, which is the earliest I’ve seen. But I’m feeling pretty good for some action overnight given the radar look and mesos getting more bullish.

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9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Latest hrrr gets storms in around 9-10pm, which is the earliest I’ve seen. But I’m feeling pretty good for some action overnight given the radar look and mesos getting more bullish.

I’m pumped!  Maybe a good night for a Jebwalk in the rain...if I want to struck by lightning. :lol: I do once again love overnight storms. Soooooo soothing...

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31 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Latest hrrr gets storms in around 9-10pm, which is the earliest I’ve seen. But I’m feeling pretty good for some action overnight given the radar look and mesos getting more bullish.

3k looks pretty good to me . Plus the pwats 2.00" - 2.2"+ and high dews . I'm thinking some real gully washers hopefully. 

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3K is also very close to some good storms and rain tomorrow. Just need a couple more hours of delay.

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Solid little cell racing out of western Montgomery County. I can see lightning in the tower from New Windsor.

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18 minutes ago, esullivan said:

Cross haired! Hope it holds course!

619714A6-8A8F-4229-BCA9-7B639667B6D3.jpeg

Funny to look at this radar still and know that it is going to miss 80% of the area inside the Beltway.

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It's 8pm, but SPC meso analysis has over 2,500 SBCAPE and LI's over 6. Impressive.

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i don't know if it would classify as severe but got a pretty decent downburst, torrential rain (won't be surprised to see up to an inch here) and impressive lightning.

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19 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Meh, radar doesn’t look great for MBY

Yeah, looked more promising earlier in the day. Other than the one mini-line, not much out there.

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10 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Yeah, looked more promising earlier in the day. Other than the one mini-line, not much out there.

Gonna miss soooo close

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Just realized that a storm is passing D.C to the north. I can barely focus after I just had a DFH 120 min

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1 minute ago, JakkelWx said:

Just realized that a storm is passing D.C to the north. I can barely focus after I just had a DFH 120 min

Have another :drunk:

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19 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Sprinkles and impressive clouds

And done. Such a tease.

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