• Member Statistics

    15,753
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    queenofscience
    Newest Member
    queenofscience
    Joined
Rtd208

January 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

Recommended Posts

2 hours ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

I understand

 

i hate “normal” temps and “normal” snow because record keeping doesn’t go back too far in reality

 

i know the 70s were cold and they even said an ice age was coming but I think it’s just normal fluctuations

i guess what I’m saying is that “normal” might not even exist 

 

Truth

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

This is where people, I guess of a certain age (35-55) make that same mistake thinking the 70's and 80's were normal. They were the two least snowiest decades of the 150 years NYC has been keeping official records. When people say the 2000's aren't the norm it's true but neither was that 20 year period.

The 150 year average is 28.8 inches in Central Park. The 1970's and 1980's averaged 21.3 and 20.2 inches respectively ,and the 2000's and 2010's 32.1 and 36.9 so far. Both are way above and below the 28.8 inch 150 year average.

Excellent point---I was only going by what I know.  Thanks for pointing that out.  What I don't understand is why it was hammered into our heads that NYC(absent the Bronx) and Long Island was not a good environment for snow?  Anyway, thanks for the info

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If the GEFS is correct about the next 16 days, there will not be any BN day after today in its purview.         This would mean just 5 BN days out of a 48 day period had just occured---which happened to commence with the first day of calendar winter.  

DT seems to be saying, "Print out the rest of the winter and WYA  with it.        When you are done doing that,  you can wipe your nose with it.       You might want to reverse that.

Another day older and deeper in do-doo.        Really amazing how the best analog starts after one of best extended periods in modern winter history around here.    Bookend snowstorms,  a -2 morning and 16 straight sub 32* Highs.     Jan. 19---Feb. 04 1961.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814analog.off.gif

   

  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

for reference purposes...NYC winter stats...

winter average temperature Dec-Feb...lowest minimum...coldest 30 day period... total snowfall...most snow in 30 days...4" snowfalls or biggest snowfall...

season......ave temp …...Min ...coldest 30 days... snowfall..most snow in 30 days..largest snowfalls...
1869-70..........34.5..........10...….......29.2...………..27.8"...………...15.8".………......5.0"...8.0"...6.0"...

1870-71..........30.9............0.............24.9...………...33.1"...………...28.0".…….........9.0"...5.0"...7.0"
1871-72..........29.3...........-2...….......28.3...……......14.1"...……….....4.9"..................3.0"........
1872-73..........28.3...........-1...….......26.5...………...60.3"...………...26.8"...……......18.0"...4.0"...6.0"...5.8"...4.8"...4.0"
1873-74..........34.0............3...….......30.9...………...36.9"...………...19.1"………...….5.0"...6.5"...5.0"...6.5"...7.5"
1874-75..........27.6...........-3...……....22.7...………...57.8"...………...18.0"...…..……10.0"...5.0"...4.0"...5.5"...4.0"...10.0" 
1875-76..........34.1............5...……....31.5...……......18.3"...………...14.8"......…...…11.0"
1876-77..........29.8............3.............23.2...………...40.4"...………...27.9".......……....4.3"...13.0"
1877-78..........33.3............7.............29.6...…………..8.1"...……….....8.1"......…...…..7.0"
1878-79..........29.2...........-4....…......22.9...………...35.7"...………...22.3"......……...13.0"
1879-80..........38.5............7....…......34.0...………...22.7"...…………..8.3"...………....4.0"...4.0"

1880-81..........26.6...........-6...…......22.1...………...35.5"...………...19.9"..…………..4.0"...6.5"...4.0"
1881-82..........34.5...........-6......…...28.9...………...31.4"...………...25.5"......….…….8.0"...9.0"
1882-83..........28.7............1......…...23.5...………...44.0"...………...15.1"......…..…....4.5"...9.0"...5.0"...8.0"...4.5"...4.0"...
1883-84..........30.2...........-1...……...24.2...………...43.1"...………...24.9".......….…….5.0"...7.6"...5.0"...4.5"...5.0"
1884-85..........28.6...........-3......…...20.8...………...34.2"...………...15.1"......………..4.0"...
1885-86..........30.0...........-4......…...21.5...………...20.8"...………...18.8"......….…….5.0"...4.0"...5.0"
1886-87..........30.2............4......…...25.6...………...32.9"...………...10.6"...……….….5.3"...4.0"...5.0"
1887-88..........28.7............0......…...21.6...………...45.6"...………...22.3"...…...……...5.5"...21.0"...
1888-89..........32.7............3......…...27.9...………...16.5"...…………..7.0"...................4.0"...........
1889-90..........37.9............7......…...35.6...………...24.3"...………...17.0"...……..........6.0"...6.0"...4.0"..

1890-91..........33.4............9......…...30.0...………...28.8"...………...11.4".........………7.0"...8.0"...
1891-92..........35.7............9......…...30.6...……......25.4"...………...12.2"......…….......6.0"...8.0"...
1892-93..........28.4............1......…...21.0...………...49.7"...………...23.1"......…..…....4.0"...6.0"...5.0"...9.1"...6.0"
1893-94..........32.2............1....……..28.8...………...36.1"...………...22.6"......……......6.5"...7.0"...4.0"...8.0"...
1894-95..........30.3...........-4......…...23.5...………...27.0"...……......17.0".........……...4.0"...4.0"...5.0"...
1895-96..........33.3...........-6......…...27.4...………...46.3"...………...32.0".........…….10.0"...4.0"...12.0"...4.5"...
1896-97..........32.7............6......…...28.8...………...43.6"...………...18.0"......……......5.0"...7.0"...6.0"...10.0"...8.5"...
1897-98..........36.5............8......…...34.2...………...21.1"...……….....8.9"...…………..5.0"
1898-99..........31.9...........-6......…...24.7...………...55.9"...………...26.5"......……….10.0"...6.0"...4.0"...6.5"...16.0"...
1899-00..........33.4............5......…...29.9...………...13.4"...………...11.9".........………6.1"...5.0"

1900-01..........31.7............4......…...26.4...…………..9.1"...………....8.8"...………......4.0"
1901-02..........32.0............8...….…..27.1...………...30.0"...………...20.8"............…..10.0"...4.0"...6.5"...
1902-03..........32.0............4......…...29.1...………...28.7"...………...14.4"............……6.3"...6.5"...4.0"...9.5"...
1903-04..........27.4...........-1......…...24.3...………...32.3"...………...14.4".........……...8.0"...4.7"...
1904-05..........28.1............4......…...22.2...………...48.1"...………...24.7"............……4.0"...6.0"...7.0"...11.0"...
1905-06..........36.7............7......…...32.8...………...20.0"...………...11.5"...............….6.0"...6.5"...5.0"...
1906-07..........31.7............4......…...25.9...………...53.2"...………...26.8"............……6.0"...5.0"...11.0"...6.0"...4.0"...6.0"...5.0"...
1907-08..........33.3............1......…...26.8...………...33.4"...………...23.8"............…..10.0"...8.0"...4.3"...
1908-09..........36.7............5......…...32.2...………...20.3"...………...11.4".........……....5.1"...4.0"
1909-10..........30.5............1......…...25.8...………...27.2"...………...19.0"...............….8.0"...10.0"...5.0"...

1910-11..........32.5..........11......…...29.8...………...25.2"...………...15.6"......………....4.0"...4.5"
1911-12..........30.6...........-3.....…...22.8...………...29.5"...………...14.5"......………….7.0"...
1912-13..........37.2..........11......…..31.7...………...15.3"...………...11.5"...………......11.4"
1913-14..........31.9...........-5......…..24.7...………...40.5"...………...35.2"......………....9.7"...5.3"...14.5"...
1914-15..........34.0............3......…..28.6...………...28.8"...………...17.9"......………....4.4"...7.7"...10.2"...
1915-16..........32.5............2......…..26.8...………...50.7"...………...25.6"......……...….6.0"...6.0"...5.3"...7.6"...4.0"...5.0"...
1916-17..........31.8............0......…..26.5...………...50.7"...………...21.8"......….........12.7"...4.3"...6.7"...6.5"...
1917-18..........25.7..........-13...…....19.0...………...34.5"...………...14.1"......………...9.5"...5.9"...
1918-19..........36.6..........10...……..34.5...………….3.8"...……….....2.7"......………...1.4"
1919-20..........27.4...........-2.....…...22.4...………..47.6"...………...25.3"...………….17.5"...

 

1920-21..........34.9............4...….....31.4...………...18.6"...………...15.1"......………..12.5"...
1921-22..........31.4...........-2......…..27.4...………...27.8"...………...13.7"...……….......6.5"...5.8"...
1922-23..........30.0............7...….....24.6...………...60.4"...………...23.1"......………….4.0"...9.0"...7.8"...6.3"...6.3"...7.3"...
1923-24..........34.6............5......…..28.0...………...27.5"...………...11.9"......………….4.9"...8.5"...
1924-25..........33.4...........-2......…..28.2...………...29.6"...………...27.4"...……….....11.5"...7.0"...5.1"...
1925-26..........32.0............5...……..26.9...………...32.4"......…...…26.3"...……….....10.4"...12.0"...
1926-27..........32.0...........-1.....…...28.6...………...22.3"...………..11.8"...………...….7.9"...5.1"...
1927-28..........34.6............7.....…...31.5...………...14.5"...………….9.2"...…………....5.3"...
1928-29..........34.7............8...……..31.1...………...13.8"...………...10.6"...…………....9.2"...
1929-30..........35.4............7........…28.8......……...13.6"...…………..6.3"...…….…......3.9"...

1930-31..........33.8..........10......…...31.9...………...11.6"...……….....6.0"...………...….3.9"...
1931-32..........40.1..........15......…...35.8...………….5.3"...…………..2.1"...……………2.0"...
1932-33..........37.8..........11......…...33.9...………...27.0"...………...15.4"...………...….7.2"...10.0"...
1933-34..........29.2.........-15......…...19.6...……......52.0"...………...28.0"...………......11.2"...9.8"...7.6"...9.3"...5.6"...
1934-35..........31.2...........-1......…...24.3...………...33.8"...………...24.3"...…………..13.0"...5.1"...4.5".
1935-36..........28.3...........-3......…...20.4...………...33.2"...………...18.5"...………...….4.1"...9.2"...4.7"...
1936-37..........37.9..........13......…...34.9...………...15.6"...…………..8.8"...…………....5.7"...
1937-38..........34.3............6......…...31.4...………...15.1"...……….....6.6"...……….…...6.4"...
1938-39..........35.4............6......…...29.3...………...37.3"...………...13.2"...…………….8.8"...4.0"...8.8"...4.5"...
1939-40..........31.6............7......…...24.9...………...25.7"...………...12.0"...…………….9.0"...

1940-41..........33.0..........10......…...28.8...………...39.0"...………...23.9"......……...…..5.2"...4.0"...18.1"...
1941-42..........32.9............5......…...29.0...………...11.3"...…………..6.4"...…………....3.2"...
1942-43..........32.2...........-8.........…28.7...………...29.5"...………...13.2"...………….....4.1"...8.4"...
1943-44..........33.4..........10......…...28.8...………...23.8"...………...10.3"...…………….7.3"...4.8"...6.5"...
1944-45..........30.5............2...…......23.8...………...27.1"...…...……18.6"...………….....6.7"...4.0"...
1945-46..........32.3............5......…...31.4...………...31.4"...………...18.1"...…………....8.3"...7.5"...
1946-47..........34.8............7......…...29.3...………...30.6"...………...23.2"...…………....4.0"...5.2"...10.7"...
1947-48..........30.0............0......…...21.5...………...63.2"...………...43.2"......………...25.8"...5.1"...5.4"...
1948-49..........38.5..........10......…...36.3...………...46.6"...………...26.8"...…………....5.3"...16.0"...4.5"...4.6"...9.4"...
1949-50..........37.5............6...…......31.6...………...13.8"...………….8.9"...…………….3.8"...

1950-51..........35.9............9...……..33.0...………...11.6"...………….5.0"...…………....3.0"...
1951-52..........37.0............8...….....31.9...………...19.7"...……….....8.6"...…………….5.8"...4.0"...
1952-53..........38.1..........12......…..35.5...………...15.1"...……….....7.5"...…………....4.5"...
1953-54..........37.4............7......…..30.3...………...15.8"...………...12.7"...…………....7.8"...
1954-55..........34.0............0......…..28.6...………...11.5"...…………..5.2"...…………....3.9"...
1955-56..........32.7............5......…..27.6...………...33.5"...………...25.3"...…………....6.5"...11.6"...4.2"...
1956-57..........35.6............0......…..27.8...………...21.9"...………...15.2"...…………....4.9"...6.4"...
1957-58..........33.3............3......…..28.1...………...44.7"...………...16.1"...…………....8.0"...4.5"...4.5"...7.9"...4.1"...11.8"...
1958-59..........30.9............7...….....28.5...………...13.0"...…………..6.7"...…………...5.5"...
1959-60..........36.2............9......…..30.3...………...39.2"...………...18.5"...…………..13.7"...14.5"...

1960-61..........31.7...........-2...….....24.6...………...54.7"...………...34.1"...……….....15.2".....9.9"...17.4"......
1961-62..........33.3............4......…..30.9...………...18.1"...……….....9.6"...…………....6.2"...
1962-63..........30.0...........-2...….....25.9...………...16.3"...……….....7.8"...…………....4.2"...
1963-64..........33.3............9......…..31.1...………...44.7"...………...20.7"......………….6.6"...12.5"...6.8"...4.9"...
1964-65..........33.3............9......…..28.0...………...24.4"...………...14.4"...…………....6.3".....4.6"...
1965-66..........35.9............8......…..28.5...………...21.4"...………...18.0"...…………....6.8".....6.3"...
1966-67..........34.1............4......…..28.6...………...51.5"...……...…25.6"......………….7.1"...12.5"...9.8"...
1967-68..........31.3...........-1......…..25.1...………...19.5"...……….....9.1"...…………....6.6"
1968-69..........32.9............9......…..30.4...………...30.2"...………...22.2"......………….5.2"...15.3"...
1969-70..........30.5............3......…..24.0...………...25.6"...………...14.7"...…………....6.8".....4.0"...

1970-71..........32.1............4......…..24.2......……...15.5"......……….11.4"...…………....6.4"...
1971-72..........35.1............5...….....28.6...………...22.9"...………...19.6"......………….5.7".....5.2"...
1972-73..........35.8............7...….....32.0...………….2.8"...…………..2.6"...……………1.8"...
1973-74..........35.5............6......…..32.3...………...23.5"...………...10.6"...…………....4.7".....6.0"...
1974-75..........37.5..........15......…..33.0...………...13.1"...………...11.3"...…………....7.8"...
1975-76..........34.4...........-1......…..27.1...………...17.3"...………....9.6"...…………….4.2".....4.0"...
1976-77..........28.5...........-2......…..21.9...………...24.5"...………...16.9"......………….5.2"...
1977-78..........30.3..........10......…..26.2...………...50.7"...………...37.2"...…………...13.6"...17.7".....4.2".....5.0"...
1978-79..........32.7............0......…..26.0...………...29.4"...………...20.1"...………….....5.0"...12.7"...
1979-80..........35.4..........10......…..30.9...………...12.8"...………….7.3"......…………..4.6"...

 

1980-81..........32.7...........-1......…..22.2...………...19.4"...………….9.7"......…………..4.9"...8.6"...
1981-82..........32.6............0......…..25.2...…………24.6"...………...11.8"...………….....5.8"...9.6"...
1982-83..........37.9..........12......…..32.9...…………27.2"...………...23.4"...………......17.6"...
1983-84..........35.2............4......…..26.1...………....25.4"...………...12.1"...…………....6.9"...5.1"...4.6"......
1984-85..........36.4...........-2......…..27.5...…….......24.1"...………...16.9"...…………....4.8"...4.1"...4.3"...5.7"...
1985-86..........33.4............8...….....31.0...………...13.0"...………...12.1"......…………..4.5"...4.5"...
1986-87..........34.8............4......…..29.3...………...23.1"...………...16.4"...……………..8.1"...4.2"
1987-88..........34.7............5...….....28.3...………...19.1"...………...16.5"...………….....5.8"...5.2"...
1988-89..........35.9............5...….....32.4...……….....8.1"...…………..5.3"...………….....5.0"...
1989-90..........35.7............6......…..25.3...………...13.4"...…………..5.4"...……………..4.7"...

1990-91..........39.2..........10......…..34.5...………...24.9"...………...15.6"...……………..7.2"...5.7"...8.9"...
1991-92..........37.2..........11......…..30.3...………...12.4"...…………..9.4"...………….....6.2"
1992-93..........35.0............7......…..31.0...………...24.5"...………...19.5"......…………..4.3"...10.6"...
1993-94..........31.2...........-2......…..23.5...………...53.4"...………...30.8"......…………..4.0"...4.5"...9.0"...12.8"...5.0"...
1994-95..........37.1............6......…..31.5...………...11.8"...………...11.6"............……..10.8"...
1995-96..........32.3............5......…..27.7...………...75.6"...………...35.2"...………….....7.7"...20.2"...7.5"...10.7"...4.6"...4.6"...4.1"...
1996-97..........37.8............4...….....31.7...………...10.0"...……….....6.1"...……………..3.5".....
1997-98..........39.6..........14...….....37.3...……….....5.5"...……….....5.0"...………….....5.0"...

1998-99..........38.7............9...….....31.3...………...12.7"...……….....6.5"...………….....4.5"...
1999-00..........36.2............3...….....26.2...………...16.3"...………...14.7"...………….....5.5"...

2000-01..........33.5..........14......…..29.9...………...35.0"...………...20.3"...…………....12.0"...6.0"...5.7"...
2001-02..........41.5..........19...........35.4...……….....3.5"...……….....3.5"...…………......3.0"...
2002-03..........31.2............7...….....25.9...………...49.3"...……......29.6"...……………..6.0"...5.0"...5.3"...19.8"...4.0"...
2003-04..........32.4............1...….....22.5...………...42.6"...………...19.8"......………….14.0"...5.8"...5.7"...10.3"...
2004-05..........35.4............5...….....29.5...………...41.0"...………...20.2"...…………....13.8"...5.0"...6.0"...7.7"...
2005-06..........37.3..........14......…..33.5...………...40.0"...………...28.9"...……………..5.8"...26.9"...
2006-07..........36.5............8...….....25.8...………...12.4"...………….7.8"...……………..5.5"...
2007-08..........36.4..........10...….....35.7...………...11.9"...……….....9.0"......…………...6.0"...
2008-09..........34.2............6...….....27.9...………...27.6"...………...13.3"...……………..4.5"...4.3"...8.3"...
2009-10..........33.8..........13...….....31.6...………...51.4"...………...38.2"...…………....10.9"...10.0"...5.0"...20.9"...

2010-11..........32.7............6...….....28.1...………...61.9"...………...37.6"...…...……….20.0"...9.1"...4.2"...19.0"...
2011-12..........40.5..........13...….....37.0...…………..7.4"...……….....4.5"...………….....4.3"...

2012-13..........36.9..........11...….....31.5...………...26.1"...………...13.7"...…………......4.7"...11.4"...4.0"

2013-14..........33.0............4...….....28.5...………...57.4"...………...42.1"...…………......5.0"...6.4"...11.5"...8.0"...4.0"...9.5"

2014-15..........31.7............2...….....23.9...………...50.3"...………...22.6"...……………..9.8"...5.3".....4.0"...4.8"...7.5"...4.5"

2015-16..........41.0...........-1......…..34.4...………...32.8"...………...31.9"...…………...27.5"

2016-17..........39.3...…...14...….....35.4...………...30.2"...………...11.0"...……………...9.4"...7.6"...5.1"

2017-18..........36.2......…..5...….....27.1...………...40.9"...………...17.5"...…………......9.8"...8.4"...4.6"...4.4"...5.5"

2018-19...……..36.2.…..……2...….....30.8...………...20.5"...………...13.0"...……………..6.4"...4.0"...5.0"

 

1869-70--

2018-19...……33.6...…...4.3...…..….28,2...………..27.5"...…………

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Thanks for sharing this interesting research.

It will be interesting to see how that forecast works out. Right now it looks like the Pacific is running two opposites at once. Currently have that record Niño-like +AAM rise and the strong ridge building over Hudson Bay. The near record ridge north of Hawaii and +EPO are more Niña-like. This is the strongest January +EPO since the 11-12 La Niña. 

C39A81C0-2C23-4361-AAFA-54306D848D2F.gif.77e60029c21b76ebd558e017995911f2.gif
 

59462B62-A611-489A-8F64-1B9CC4BE1A8A.thumb.png.f8e5ada8a60d7a081ca38ff86f5cf579.png
 

09A38199-12A0-48DD-91E8-12F65B9956AB.png

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

Just saw the weeklies.

Looks like a better pattern for February. 

  • Like 1
  • Haha 2
  • Weenie 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I love it that you never give up. It keeps me going during these trying times.

Dude it's January

  • Like 2
  • Weenie 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The snow man and snow cover live to fight another day

 

Despite the crappy winter, we have had several days with snow cover in early December and now.

That is something my peeps just south have not had, and it makes the winter that much worse.

27F

F19E0384-89F7-4D1F-AE9B-F1B324DB4DED.jpeg

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

The snow man and snow cover live to fight another day

 

Despite the crappy winter, we have had several days with snow cover in early December and now.

That is something my peeps just south have not had, and it makes the winter that much worse.

27F

F19E0384-89F7-4D1F-AE9B-F1B324DB4DED.jpeg

But can you build a saltman?? We can build saltmen down here! And when we are done with the saltmen we can salt rim our glasses. It is great having salt delivery from the town. (Yes this is sarcasm as I am pretty sure my salt accumulation and snow accumulation are similar this year).

  • Like 2
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, nycwinter said:

maybe we are in a new cycle of bad winters...

Seems like it. With the exception of 2016, I don't think we've had a good winter for over a decade.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, CIK62 said:

If the GEFS is correct about the next 16 days, there will not be any BN day after today in its purview.         This would mean just 5 BN days out of a 48 day period had just occured---which happened to commence with the first day of calendar winter.  

DT seems to be saying, "Print out the rest of the winter and WYA  with it.        When you are done doing that,  you can wipe your nose with it.       You might want to reverse that.

Another day older and deeper in do-doo.        Really amazing how the best analog starts after one of best extended periods in modern winter history around here.    Bookend snowstorms,  a -2 morning and 16 straight sub 32* Highs.     Jan. 19---Feb. 04 1961.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814analog.off.gif

   

Just curious, do you ever follow day to day weather or do you wake up dreaming of the GEFS temperature projections relative to normal?

Doesn't it get old?

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 3
  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Seems like it. With the exception of 2016, I don't think we've had a good winter for over a decade.

Ffs

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Ffs

You're right. 2010-2011 was an AMAZING year for snowstorms. We had two KU events that winter which followed a KU event in February 2010. We haven't had one since January 2016.

  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, TriPol said:

You're right. 2010-2011 was an AMAZING year for snowstorms. We had two KU events that winter which followed a KU event in February 2010. We haven't had one since January 2016.

Some folks nearby have though. It's been those of us in NE/ECNJ that haven't seen much, which was the case in many years in the past. What didn't happen was regular appearances of 60-70 degrees....

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Some folks nearby have though. It's been those of us in NE/ECNJ that haven't seen much, which was the case in many years in the past. What didn't happen was regular appearances of 60-70 degrees....

I think we had one of those in January 2006 right before our major Feb 2006 snowstorm. I would be alright with one 60-70 day if it meant that's what follows, but so far, it doesn't look good. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, TriPol said:

You're right. 2010-2011 was an AMAZING year for snowstorms. We had two KU events that winter which followed a KU event in February 2010. We haven't had one since January 2016.

Did you miss 2013-15? Even 2012-13 was decent

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
37 minutes ago, TriPol said:

You're right. 2010-2011 was an AMAZING year for snowstorms. We had two KU events that winter which followed a KU event in February 2010. We haven't had one since January 2016.

If needing a ku type storm is what makes a “good” winter for you...i dont really know what to say except maybe this isnt the hobby for you? Lol

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Warmer conditions will likely develop starting tomorrow. No exceptional warmth appears imminent, but readings will likely run above normal through the remainder of January.

A mild finish to a very warm January does not mean that February will likely be warmer than normal. The coefficient of determination for New York City between the January and February temperatures is just 0.07. Records go back to 1869.

Colder air could return during or just after the first week in February.

As long as the Arctic Oscillation remains strongly positive, the risk of widespread significant snow (6" or greater) from Washington, DC to Boston remains low. Since 1950, there were 11 storms that brought 6" or more snow to 2 or more of the following cities: Boston, New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC. Just 1 such storm occurred when the AO was +1.000 or above. Therefore, through most of the remainder of January, the greatest risk of moderate or significant snowfall will likely exist for central and upstate New York and central and northern New England.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around January 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.52°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions.

For February 1981-2019, the following monthly temperature averages were recorded for cases when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly averaged 0.00°C to +0.75°C:

ENSO R1+2 Anomaly < 0: AO+: NYC: 36.9°; Philadelphia: 37.6° (n=101 dates)
ENSO R1+2 Anomaly < 0: AO-: NYC: 34.7°; Philadelphia: 34.9° (n=97 dates)

ENSO R1+2 Anomaly > 0: AO+: NYC: 35.7°; Philadelphia: 36.6° (n=82 dates)
ENSO R1+2 Anomaly > 0: AO-: NYC: 30.9°; Philadelphia: 31.6° (n=58 dates)

February 1981-2019: NYC: 35.8°; Philadelphia: 36.0°

The SOI was -3.62 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.483.

No significant stratospheric warming event appears likely through January 29. Wave 2 activity will remain relatively suppressed. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS. 

On January 20, the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.152 (RMM). The January 19-adjusted amplitude was 2.644.

The MJO had recently spent 9 consecutive days at an amplitude of 3.000 or above. There have been only 8 cases where the MJO had an amplitude of 3.000 or above for 7 or more consecutive days. The shortest period from the start of that stretch that saw the MJO's amplitude fall below 1.000 was 20 days. The mean period was 36 days. The longest period was 55 days. Based on this historic experience, the MJO likely won't reach low amplitude until near or after the end of January.

Since 1974, there were 8 prior cases where the MJO reached Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above in the January 5-20 period. In 7 or 88% of those cases, the MJO progressed into Phases 7 and 8. The MJO moved into Phase 7 on January 20.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied near 100% probability of a warmer than normal January. The monthly mean temperature could finish near 38.5° in New York City.

The probability that January 2020 will finish with among the 10 highest January average temperatures on record has increased to just over 50%. The 10th warmest January occurred in 1906 with a monthly mean temperature of 38.4°. The 9th warmest January was January 1949 with an average temperature of 38.6°.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Warmer conditions will likely develop starting tomorrow. No exceptional warmth appears imminent, but readings will likely run above normal through the remainder of January.

A mild finish to a very warm January does not mean that February will likely be warmer than normal. The coefficient of determination for New York City between the January and February temperatures is just 0.07. Records go back to 1869.

Colder air could return during or just after the first week in February.

As long as the Arctic Oscillation remains strongly positive, the risk of widespread significant snow (6" or greater) from Washington, DC to Boston remains low. Since 1950, there were 11 storms that brought 6" or more snow to 2 or more of the following cities: Boston, New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC. Just 1 such storm occurred when the AO was +1.000 or above. Therefore, through most of the remainder of January, the greatest risk of moderate or significant snowfall will likely exist for central and upstate New York and central and northern New England.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around January 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.52°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions.

For February 1981-2019, the following monthly temperature averages were recorded for cases when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly averaged 0.00°C to +0.75°C:

ENSO R1+2 Anomaly < 0: AO+: NYC: 36.9°; Philadelphia: 37.6° (n=101 dates)
ENSO R1+2 Anomaly < 0: AO-: NYC: 34.7°; Philadelphia: 34.9° (n=97 dates)

ENSO R1+2 Anomaly > 0: AO+: NYC: 35.7°; Philadelphia: 36.6° (n=82 dates)
ENSO R1+2 Anomaly > 0: AO-: NYC: 30.9°; Philadelphia: 31.6° (n=58 dates)

February 1981-2019: NYC: 35.8°; Philadelphia: 36.0°

The SOI was -3.62 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.483.

No significant stratospheric warming event appears likely through January 29. Wave 2 activity will remain relatively suppressed. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS. 

On January 20, the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.152 (RMM). The January 19-adjusted amplitude was 2.644.

The MJO had recently spent 9 consecutive days at an amplitude of 3.000 or above. There have been only 8 cases where the MJO had an amplitude of 3.000 or above for 7 or more consecutive days. The shortest period from the start of that stretch that saw the MJO's amplitude fall below 1.000 was 20 days. The mean period was 36 days. The longest period was 55 days. Based on this historic experience, the MJO likely won't reach low amplitude until near or after the end of January.

Since 1974, there were 8 prior cases where the MJO reached Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above in the January 5-20 period. In 7 or 88% of those cases, the MJO progressed into Phases 7 and 8. The MJO moved into Phase 7 on January 20.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied near 100% probability of a warmer than normal January. The monthly mean temperature could finish near 38.5° in New York City.

The probability that January 2020 will finish with among the 10 highest January average temperatures on record has increased to just over 50%. The 10th warmest January occurred in 1906 with a monthly mean temperature of 38.4°. The 9th warmest January was January 1949 with an average temperature of 38.6°.

1905-06 was a very slow starting winter...there was a 6" snowfall that changed to rain on 2/9...March had two storms...there was 6.5" of snow and sleet on 3/14-15...5" of wet snow that ended as rain on 3/19...1905-06 is kind of similar to this year...it ended with 20" for the season...

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

https://longrangesnowcenter.net/2020/01/22/north-america-on-the-long-term-22nd-jan-2/


The latest blog update for long term snowfall prospects for North America from my perspective.

  1. PNW/BC/Northern Rockies to remain good for the next fortnight, reducing in the second week of Feb.
  2. California/the SW/Southern Rockies to improve for the latter half of February (maybe a bit earlier)
  3. Eastern US expected to improve for the last 15-20 days of February (2nd-3rd weeks of Feb, possibly into the 4th week) IMO.
  4. These impacts may be reduced/weakened by Arctic influence, etc.
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Just saw the weeklies.

Looks like a better pattern for February. 

88 I just can't---I have the towel in my hand and I am REAL close to tossing it brother

  • Haha 1
  • Sad 1
  • Weenie 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

since 1956 these are the winters that had its biggest snowfall in March after a well below snowfall winter...

1955-56...

1958-59...

1959-60...

1967-68...

1975-76...

1979-80...

1980-81...

1981-82...April storm...

1983-84...

1991-92...

1992-93...

1997-98...

1998-99...

2006-07...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.