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jburns

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2020

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Just now, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

All you have to do is look at the rain event for this Tuesday/Wednesday and how it’s shifted north and west in last 24 hours. You want this south of your locale right now. 

Amen to that. Right now, I need a 100 mile shift northwest. We all know how this is most likely going to go. 

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6 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

Amen to that. Right now, I need a 100 mile shift northwest. We all know how this is most likely going to go. 

Would love to see it shift north,  but I dont know if it can or will... the way things have been seeming to mostly stay suppressed so far with this one.

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For those discounting NAM, do so at your own peril.  Many times I’ve seen it out perform globals on SE winter storms.  Feb 2014 is just one example.  While European and others were calling for a snow apocalypse, NAM was screaming “the profiles are gong to be too warm for many”.  It was exactly right.  I am hoping it is right this time by forecasting the opposite.    

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H5 level is different as well.  Further east with the SW vs 6z.

Need to break ties with NS and consolidate more. It being stretched out and still attached to the NS trof is causing it to be suppressed. 

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2 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

For those discounting NAM, do so at your own peril.  Many times I’ve seen it out perform globals on SE winter storms.  Feb 2014 is just one example.  While European and others were calling for a snow apocalypse, NAM was screaming “the profiles are gong to be too warm for many”.  It was exactly right.  I am hoping it is right this time by forecasting the opposite.    

And to add that it is still not on shore currently. 

Also, all the normal caveats imply.

 

 

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5 minutes ago, griteater said:

The NAM really likes the idea of crashing temperatures in areas of steady precip

We just need to move that steady precip north a 100 miles.  Such a flat flow, what do we need to look for at H5 to push more moisture north? 

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I really like the odds of a nice, west-east oriented area of overrunning snow with this system. The setup is ripe for that, assuming we get decent precip rates. The air aloft is plenty cold for snow, and only gets colder as the event unfolds.

The question is will the band with the right balance of cold air/ precipitation overlap to generate snow be in northern SC, southeastern NC, further north, or will precip remain too light to really generate any accumulating snow in most places. 

Too soon to know. 

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1 minute ago, msuwx said:

I really like the odds of a nice, west-east oriented area of overrunning snow with this system. The setup is ripe for that, assuming we get decent precip rates. The air aloft is plenty cold for snow, and only gets colder as the event unfolds.

The question is will the band with the right balance of cold air/ precipitation overlap to generate snow be in northern SC, southeastern NC, further north, or will precip remain too light to really generate any accumulating snow in most places. 

Too soon to know. 

Thanks Matt. And with this, we wait. 

 

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17 minutes ago, FLweather said:

H5 level is different as well.  Further east with the SW vs 6z.

Need to break ties with NS and consolidate more. It being stretched out and still attached to the NS trof is causing it to be suppressed. 

It's a slider. That's what sliders do. Without blocking, it's what we have to work with.

EDIT: A slider gave mby the most snow I've ever had here......almost 9" of white gold  

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12 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

It's a slider. That's what sliders do. Without blocking, it's what we have to work with.

EDIT: A slider gave mby the most snow I've ever had here......almost 9" of white gold  

I remember that slider!

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8 minutes ago, SnowNiner said:

We just need to move that steady precip north a 100 miles.  Such a flat flow, what do we need to look for at H5 to push more moisture north? 

The NAM looks really good here out west with the main northern stream wave dropping down thru the Great Basin-Utah-Colorado...Pacific shortwave that undercuts the western ridge tracks out ahead of the northern stream wave as it tracks from southern California into Kansas...energy/weak waviness in the subtropical jet moves from Baja to the ArkLaTex to the Carolinas.  The suppressing feature is the shortwave that drops down thru the Great Lakes - so that's one to watch for the northern extent of precip.

QfOy4Qt.gif

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2 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

I remember that slider!

Best storm ever for mby  :wub:   I knew whatever fell would be snow, it was just a matter of how much would fall. Ratios were off the chart. There wasn't much precip with it being around .30ish and it all melted by the afternoon, but it was awesome while it lasted. This reminds me a little of that Feb day in '14, only a much larger area is in play. If anything, this has been fun to watch unfold and those who were throwing in the towel a few days ago should learn from this  ;)  

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Just now, buckeyefan1 said:

Best storm ever for mby  :wub:   I knew whatever fell would be snow, it was just a matter of how much would fall. Ratios were off the chart. There wasn't much precip with it being around .30ish and it all melted by the afternoon, but it was awesome while it lasted. This reminds me a little of that Feb day in '14, only a much larger area is in play. If anything, this has been fun to watch unfold and those who were throwing in the towel a few days ago should learn from this  ;)  

Columbia was in a panic that day 

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2 hours ago, buckeyefan1 said:

After scolding myself for even considering the NAM in lala land, I absolutely agree that it looks pretty darn good. I can’t bring myself to dismiss it because it’s handled this fast flow pretty well in the short range. :weenie:  :lol: 

The NAM never swayed and nailed it here in Upstate SC and N GA on 2-8 and the week before that when we had a surprise snow for 3 or 4 hours here and 3 to 4 inches in the Cashiers NC area. Other models eventually caught on but, it was the NAM leading the way. Agree in there is no way I would dismiss the NAM at this point.

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As we've covered already today, the temps arent an issue where precip falls. The GFS doesnt have precip so evaporational cooling does not occur. This isnt a column where we're at 8c at the 925 level. 

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31 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

That band across the SC midlands mix or ice?

Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk
 

This type of setup pretty well gonna be 3 things. Rain, snow or s/s mix. No possibility of zr.

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27 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

As we've covered already today, the temps arent an issue where precip falls. The GFS doesnt have precip so evaporational cooling does not occur. This isnt a column where we're at 8c at the 925 level. 

Agreed if you're only talking about seeing snow fall. For accumulations, temps are always an issue. Take the 2.8 system for example. Many areas outside of North Georgia and Oconee and Pickens counties saw snow fall with no mixing, but very minimal accumulations. Mid and upper levels were excellent so it stayed snow but temps at the ground never fully cooled below the 32-34 range and really cut into accumulations. With a system like this where precip looks to be meager at best, wasting any precip waiting for temps to drop that extra degree will significantly cut into snow accumulations. I agree the atmosphere is not an issue but the fact is the baseline temps are going to rely on evaporative cooling and rates to reach a point where accumulations are possible. It's not going to start snowing at 32 degrees and temps fall from there. I'm not going to be the "ground temp" and "sun angle" guy, but those in the upstate and charlotte areas might have something to say about that from the last system as the only efficient accumulations occurred at night or early morning (I know that's also when precip peaked with that system, but it does matter). That being said, the focus continues to be on pushing more moisture further north and letting the temp battle play out from there. That has been the limiting factor with this setup and continues to be so. The trends have been positive today from that angle. I know the take the cold first then worry about moisture approach, but to the previous post's point, cold is not an issue for it to snow with this system. It only will become an issue if we get to the stage of talking accumulations. 

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