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MAG5035

Central PA - Late Dec 2019/Jan 2020

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If you really like learning about interesting and cool shit than I highly highly recommend  punching in Cordyceps for a quick laymen's search while waiting for the storm . What you wont find is how common it is . If you ever found a bug on a tip of foliage with its head or back split open you are probably looking at Cordyceps. 

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I’m sorry I had to do this, I apologize in advance for the banter but all you need to know about worms. Felt it was a good time to post it. God please let it snow Saturday. 

 

B0ADFCD6-6CE1-4503-B347-C9A46229682D.jpeg

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some time I go back and read . when I say Layman's I dont mean to be condescending. I get very mad at people here but the truth is I dont think dumb people use this site much. At the end of the day the anger is worthless unless where talking P type close to home. and I truly try to enjoy all weather and my anger ruins the mood. Loved my walk with ehko in the mist tonight.

 

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3 minutes ago, paweather5 said:

I’m sorry I had to do this, I apologize in advance for the banter but all you need to know about worms. Felt it was a good time to post it. God please let it snow Saturday. 

 

B0ADFCD6-6CE1-4503-B347-C9A46229682D.jpeg

it better it could mean my ass

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I drove up to Ski Roundtop today. I would say this is one of the worst years I have seen for the mountain. We go up a good bit and the attendance is way down all relates to lack of snow. For mid Jan I don’t think I have seen it this bad. Picture is from webcam but in person it’s worst. I know next week they should come back to life but in a short season has to hurt. 

C30F0FBF-6D5F-4613-9510-9C2C55EC136F.jpeg

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9 minutes ago, paweather5 said:

I drove up to Ski Roundtop today. I would say this is one of the worst years I have seen for the mountain. We go up a good bit and the attendance is way down all relates to lack of snow. For mid Jan I don’t think I have seen it this bad. Picture is form webcam but in person it’s worst. I know next week they should come back to life but in a short season has to hurt. 

C30F0FBF-6D5F-4613-9510-9C2C55EC136F.jpeg

I spoke to someone who deals with sales at Liberty and they are basically calling this season a wash.  Even if the snow making/falling season comes back many people will not as its one of those things where the year ends up great when people can do it early but by February many have moved on to other pursuits.  They said they are happy if 1 out of 3 seasons is decent and last year was also a downer so they are hoping next year does a lot better.

 

 

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10 minutes ago, paweather5 said:

I drove up to Ski Roundtop today. I would say this is one of the worst years I have seen for the mountain. We go up a good bit and the attendance is way down all relates to lack of snow. For mid Jan I don’t think I have seen it this bad. Picture is form webcam but in person it’s worst. I know next week they should come back to life but in a short season has to hurt. 

C30F0FBF-6D5F-4613-9510-9C2C55EC136F.jpeg

They are taking a beating in many areas. It sure is sad for any business that relies on snow.....snowmobiling included. ☹️

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17 minutes ago, paweather5 said:

I drove up to Ski Roundtop today. I would say this is one of the worst years I have seen for the mountain. We go up a good bit and the attendance is way down all relates to lack of snow. For mid Jan I don’t think I have seen it this bad. Picture is form webcam but in person it’s worst. I know next week they should come back to life but in a short season has to hurt. 

C30F0FBF-6D5F-4613-9510-9C2C55EC136F.jpeg

I went out there last Tuesday after work in the middle of the storm. The roads were terrible but with the warm up on the way, I wanted to try to get one good night on the mountain with the beauty of snow covered trees.  Went back yesterday to see how much damage the weekend torch did... rough...  i'm counting on another late season resurgence like we've seen in recent years to try to break even on my pass.  hoping this weekend is the catalyst to flip the script.

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The 0z GFS still brings good snow to CTP, but snow totals were a little less than 18z.

It brings the snow in to the Susquehanna Valley by mid morning on Saturday.

We need the leading wave of precip to pack as much punch as possible. Hopefully the short range models will ramp things up over the next few days.

 

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F0EC018F-77E9-4C67-88F4-D4D511CA9D37.png

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54 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

They are taking a beating in many areas. It sure is sad for any business that relies on snow.....snowmobiling included. ☹️

I live just a few miles north east of Round Top so me a few friends in my neighborhood use to are still get seasonal passes for or family's or kids and the pricing  has got a little out of hand probably  due to lack of snow.

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The 6z GFS took a large step back on CTP snow.

For now, I’ll just take the average of the super reliable Canadian & the good old Euro from 0z. That math should work out...

Hopefully today the 12z models can bring more clarity to the weekend forecast.

 

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A45E8AF9-C1E8-43F5-ABFE-D0B7450F57E0.png

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The 6z GEFS at least looks similar to the 0z Euro Op run.

At this point, I would be more than happy with 2-4 inches of snow this weekend.

We should have opportunities for better snowstorm chances over the last 10 days of the month.

3167541B-9DF7-4B92-8BBB-39E2576D9895.png

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26 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 6z GEFS at least looks similar to the 0z Euro Op run.

At this point, I would be more than happy with 2-4 inches of snow this weekend.

We should have opportunities for better snowstorm chances over the last 10 days of the month.

3167541B-9DF7-4B92-8BBB-39E2576D9895.png

As much as I want to get back to work, I hate driving in winter weather, so I was "hoping" for the 8-10 that was being depicted earlier. My group probably would have postponed, but I doubt they will for a 2-4 inch garden variety snowfall...

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12 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

The most alarming thing about most of @Blizzard of 93's snow maps he posted is where the southern cutoff occurs. You never want to be on the southern fringe...and we are. 

I'll go down swinging with my 2-4" call. 

as you well know, we usually are on the fringe....it's how we roll down here.  When earlier outputs had decent snow into DC, thats when I feel "safe".  Unfortunately the pattern is just getting re established and there isnt much to "hold the cold- HP anchored in upstate NY or NE.  That would really save us w/ this kinda deal.  Everything  for this event is progressive....cold included.  Verbatim, 700's still ok, but we lose 850's.  Thats a sleet/zr or yes plain rain (although gut says still brief period of -r look to it before column cools back down as precip winds down.  

FWIW I still think you should be fine w/ 2-4. with SW to NE progression of best accums.  Still happy to see the reset and look forward to the next one.

 

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GFS ensemble snow map is a full 50% pullback of amounts from yesterday's morning maps.  MDT from 6" down to 3".  For me I just keep saying that any event that covers up the grass, which takes roughly 2", is a "decent" snowfall.  It would be nice to get more, though, since we're going to get the cold following the storm to preserve the snow pack for quite a few days afterwards.

This morning's NAM run will go out to 0Z Sunday, so we should get a hint of where that model is taking things till 7:00pm Saturday evening.

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9 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

GFS ensemble snow map is a full 50% pullback of amounts from yesterday's morning maps.  MDT from 6" down to 3".  For me I just keep saying that any event that covers up the grass, which takes roughly 2", is a "decent" snowfall.  It would be nice to get more, though, since we're going to get the cold following the storm to preserve the snow pack for quite a few days afterwards.

This morning's NAM run will go out to 0Z Sunday, so we should get a hint of where that model is taking things till 7:00pm Saturday evening.

Agreed.  Those of us that have been doing this for some time, know that 6" was always top bar for true CTP w/ a storm evolution/pattern like this.  3" for MBY has been my guess, and for much of CTP, but Trainers 2/-4 is better as gradient will be likely due to changeover and cold holding in respective spots.  If anyone thought hi end possible w/ an 850 LP passing well to our NW and HP on the move....well I'm not sure what to say.  It CAN happen, but as soon as we lost the anchored HP look, us realists were hoping to hang onto the cold as long as possible.  CAD can over preform here.  

That's where weather maps become guidance and knowing your climo takes over.

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2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Agreed.  Those of us that have been doing this for some time, know that 6" was always top bar for true CTP w/ a storm evolution/pattern like this.  3" for MBY has been my guess, and for much of CTP, but Trainers 2/-4 is better as gradient will be likely due to changeover and cold holding in respective spots.  If anyone thought hi end possible w/ an 850 LP passing well to our NW and HP on the move....well I'm not sure what to say.  It CAN happen, but as soon as we lost the anchored HP look, us realists were hoping to hang onto the cold as long as possible.  CAD can over preform here.  

That's where weather maps become guidance and knowing your climo takes over.

Yep. Actually, everything you said was spot on. 

We need to get it cold, and that is coming. After that I have a feeling that something is going to pop at a <7 day lead. Progressive patterns will lead us to that outcome. 

WGAL's winter outlook had 2 components that are looking pretty solid right now - a lot of mixed storms and no huge storms this winter. So far it looks to play out that way. 

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8 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Agreed.  Those of us that have been doing this for some time, know that 6" was always top bar for true CTP w/ a storm evolution/pattern like this.  3" for MBY has been my guess, and for much of CTP, but Trainers 2/-4 is better as gradient will be likely due to changeover and cold holding in respective spots.  If anyone thought hi end possible w/ an 850 LP passing well to our NW and HP on the move....well I'm not sure what to say.  It CAN happen, but as soon as we lost the anchored HP look, us realists were hoping to hang onto the cold as long as possible.  CAD can over preform here.  

That's where weather maps become guidance and knowing your climo takes over.

Yeah.  I almost always hold on to the cold the longest in my immediate vicinity.  I wouldn't be surprised to end up with a decent ice covering of the snow from freezing rain with minimal melting near the very end when temps climb up to maybe 33 or 34 before the cold starts to rush back in.

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3 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Yeah.  I almost always hold on to the cold the longest in my immediate vicinity.  I wouldn't be surprised to end up with a decent ice covering of the snow from freezing rain with minimal melting near the very end when temps climb up to maybe 33 or 34 before the cold starts to rush back in.

exactly.  The unfortunate thing is that this storm evolution is similar to how it looked a couple days ago, but subtle shifts in thermal profile are what  make the difference here, even though they are similar to what we were seeing Monday.  Warm nose at 850/925 is what is hurting us for snow/ice, but column is close enough workable that we shouldn't "lose" what we get. 

Just need to hope we get enough to whiten the ground, as it should stick around for a while.  Thats the win I'm hoping for.   

 

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12z NAM ticked a bit stronger w/ cold at critical layers.  Look at 700/850's as well as surface maps and you'll see it reflects more frozen.  Its a small step, but it wouldnt take much to keep CTP in a nice transitional winter storm look. 

 

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also, in my mind, I'm hoping for a weaker/less wound up system, as it becomes more overruning and while qpf would suffer a bit, it would help to save thermal profiles for us.  

Something to watch.  

 

 

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26 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Yeah.  I almost always hold on to the cold the longest in my immediate vicinity.  I wouldn't be surprised to end up with a decent ice covering of the snow from freezing rain with minimal melting near the very end when temps climb up to maybe 33 or 34 before the cold starts to rush back in.

i agree with this. 

 

Thanks for the good updates fellas

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