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DDweatherman

December 16/17 Baby Bump Thump Thread

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1 minute ago, LP08 said:

12k looks like a pretty decent snow hit for NW va and md...not much makes it over the blue ridge.

Yeah those mountains are pesky... we still need to come together and get enough money to raise money to tear those down.

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But this seems like a pretty significant run-to-run change. Was hoping the amped-ness would show up on our side of the Blue Ridge.

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8 minutes ago, LP08 said:

12k looks like a pretty decent snow hit for NW va and md...not much makes it over the blue ridge.

Check the accumulated positive snow depth change.....much less impressive.

Verbatim most of the "snow" would be sleet or FZR....but IMO any form of frozen slop/mix is more interesting than just plain rain. Gotta hope we can keep "trending" colder as we get closer....

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Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Yeah those mountains are pesky... we still need to come together and get enough money to raise money to tear those down.

but this seems like a pretty significant run-to-run change. Was hoping the amped-ness would show up on our side of the Blue Ridge.

Double edged sword with the mountains... remove them and CAD events are gone forever. I don't want to live in that world. Lol

I'm not worried about qpf wobbles as much as not having a column that supports snow for more than 15 minutes. Nams are the same or slightly better at the surface and 850s compared to 12z. That's nice to see. 

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32 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Double edged sword with the mountains... remove them and CAD events are gone forever. I don't want to live in that world. Lol

I'm not worried about qpf wobbles as much as not having a column that supports snow for more than 15 minutes. Nams are the same or slightly better at the surface and 850s compared to 12z. That's nice to see. 

Wouldn't we be better off strip-mining between Pittsburgh/Cumberland/Chambersburg and putting in another great lake? Keep the CAD when needed, plus we get legit lake-effect going on with those cold dry NW winds that we do so well around here.  

Agree that it's going to come down to the column and how long we can hang on.....do you think timing may help out as well? If we could get an early onset with a good juicy slug going before the sun hits that can't be a bad thing. 

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I’d be pretty happy with the 3k NAM. About 5 hours of light snow with temps near freezing for 0.5-2”. Would stick to all the trees well and be very pretty before getting washed away. 

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4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

GFS seems pretty steady

Precip moved south again, but snow/ice looks basically unchanged. 

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7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Precip moved south again, but snow/ice looks basically unchanged. 

I noticed that too. The rain shield move south noticeably. Don’t know if that means we might hang on to cold longer or not.

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13 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Looks like the same in the NAM.

Yup although the NAM looks like it hangs on a few more hrs than the GFS. My understanding is that the known GFS cold bias mostly affects the med and long range, so maybe the NAM will be better at sniffing out the cold......hug the model that gives you what you want! :weenie:

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29 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I noticed that too. The rain shield move south noticeably. Don’t know if that means we might hang on to cold longer or not.

All comes down to the initial slug. Snow producing column will be short lived so as juicy as possible upfront is our path to more than 1". If precip comes in weak it will be ugly. Need heavier rates/evap cooling or warm nose will rush in

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5 minutes ago, Ji said:

18z7f4cce4d0fd253d104db592129f00386.jpg

Def better than 12z with initial slug of precip in both qpf and trajectory. Good run and room for improvement. Warm fronts often juice up in the short range. 

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2 minutes ago, yoda said:

00z NAM at 45 (21z MON) says frozen precip still ongoing in C MD/N VA/NW VA

ETA: Still frozen in NW VA at 03z TUES lol

We know cold likes to hold longer. Makes perfect sense. :D

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5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

We know the NAM is on some serious crack...enjoy that stripe of 8 to 10 @Bob Chill

It is but in fairness that’s mostly freezing rain after 2/3 inches of snow. The snow map counts ice as 10-1 snow. 

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