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Rtd208

E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2019/2020 OBS Thread

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30 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Charlie Brown what did you get for xmas "I got a lake"

 

You may very well be right. Like you said 50/50. I'm just playing devil's advocate with you. Your glass is half empty mine is half full. Just keeping discussion open and both of us are presenting different sides. 

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1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

You may very well be right. Like you said 50/50. I'm just playing devil's advocate with you. Your glass is half empty mine is half full. Just keeping discussion open and both of us are presenting different sides. 

Half full of Cap'n Jack :drunk: let's drink

 

 

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1 hour ago, RedSky said:

Come on man do you SEE the WEST, THAT IS NOT an east coast snow storm look, i feel like DT lol

 

Nao and AO will be favorable so yes a snowstorm is possible if the west cooperates.

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On 12/13/2019 at 8:51 PM, RedSky said:

Come on man do you SEE the WEST, THAT IS NOT an east coast snow storm look, i feel like DT lol

 

Predictably models abandoned the idea of an east coast snowstorm next week. Giant troughs out west are not conducive for snow in this region.

Depressingly Don S has updated and came up with a not so pretty 69% chance for <20" snow NYC +NAO +AO this month

Are the 80's back? 

 

 

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^^ probably the best shot of snow for the rest of the month. Looking like we punt the next 2 weeks at least. Long range ensembles show the pac improving as we head into early January but you have to wonder if that is too quick of a breakdown. I'm skeptical right now that the west coast trough will be as transient as currently depicted. One positive is that the ensembles are showing blocking in the AO and NAO area's through the end of the run so we have that going at least. Overall though think we see much of the same, warm/wet and cool/dry until the PAC gets in better shape. I'm thinking it won't be until mid January until we get the pattern where we want it. Let's see where we are in 2 weeks before hitting the panic button.

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The frustrating thing is most of our really good winters had a solid December.  Hopefully things will begin to improve over the coming weeks.  Getting really sick of cold rain.

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1 minute ago, JMcCaughey42 said:

The frustrating thing is most of our really good winters had a solid December.  Hopefully things will begin to improve over the coming weeks.  Getting really sick of cold rain.

I dont remember reading any outlooks calling for a "really good winter". Most outlooks called for avg to below avg snowfall this winter with a crud December and better January, February, and some March. I went with avg to above avg and chances for a bigger storm....maybe 2.

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12 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I dont remember reading any outlooks calling for a "really good winter". Most outlooks called for avg to below avg snowfall this winter with a crud December and better January, February, and some March. I went with avg to above avg and chances for a bigger storm....maybe 2.

True, I guess I should temper my expectations.  I just love December snow ha.  Let's hope things actually improve this year.  Last year was really rough as a snow lover.

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4 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

HRRR and 12Z NAM still show some flakes flying later today.

SE PA has a few squalls set to move thru between 5 and 9pm. Some spots may pick up a quick C-1" still it appears.

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4 hours ago, zenmsav6810 said:

all it takes is one Miller A to set us over the average... look up folks still plenty of golf left to play. Not even solar winter yet. 

It's like this - the analogs as Don S has eloquently described call for an awful <20" winter at this point. Now last year the analogs were very good(snowy) and we know how that worked out. Need the opposite to happen.

 

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