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Zelocita Weather

Possible Dec 1-3 Winter Storm

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12 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Euro seems like it has feedback issues to me like UKMET with convection off the coast.  It puts too much precip over central and east LI in next 6 hours.  Its 18-00Z QPF for LI makes no sense to me.  It does match the 12KM NAM though for E NJ and the Metro with the idea there will be most of the accumulating snow 23-05Z 

There is a good amount of convection off the coast right now, maybe it’s really onto something? 

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14 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

I’ve been saying they need to issue a winter storm warning here. This could end up topping 6 inches for Central Park once sun goes down!

Hopefully I go home before it goes down. 

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1 minute ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

I love this map yanks I think it’s spot on! Good job

You might bust low in NYC  but it's a good map.

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Just now, Poker2015 said:

Ugh, looks like screw zone for me in Western Somerset County...grrr

A lot of times these narrow snow bands can be hard to forecast at much lead time. By the hour the evolution of this seems to be shifting. 

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Just now, Snow88 said:

Less than an inch ?

I assume you mean for coastal Queens and Kings County? Yes, don't expect much accumulation at all in those areas. I guess I could have put them in the 1-2" range but either way I think it's right around 1".

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2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

You might bust low in NYC  but it's a good map.

The only reason why it may not be low is cause right now City isn’t really accumulating because the ground is still warm, temps will drop once sun goes down

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3 minutes ago, Poker2015 said:

Ugh, looks like screw zone for me in Western Somerset County...grrr

 

 

yeah Im in Belle Mead and not impressed with the rates..its 34 now and the 1.5 or so on the grass is melting

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Just now, NYCweatherNOW said:

The only reason why it may not be low is cause right now City isn’t really accumulating because the ground is still warm, temps will drop once sun goes down

We still have ways go go with this storm 

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Just now, NYCweatherNOW said:

The only reason why it may not be low is cause right now City isn’t really accumulating because the ground is still warm, temps will drop once sun goes down

Biggest factors working against greater snowfall in NYC are the marginal temperatures and the fact that the best banding is probably going to be just to the West. That doesn't mean it's not going to snow there. Just don't think it adds up to all that much.

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Just now, Snowlover11 said:

screw zone about to move over eastern side of westchester county. :thumbsdown:

It should back build some. The latest HRRR has pretty consistent banding over your area until around 09z.

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1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

Biggest factors working against greater snowfall in NYC are the marginal temperatures and the fact that the best banding is probably going to be just to the West. That doesn't mean it's not going to snow there. Just don't think it adds up to all that much.

Agreed. I called 2-5" on FB for the city. Would be surprised if we get to 5. This one's got too much time to go to really know for sure, but I don't think the best banding will be here and we're always working against salted pavement. Still think this will be a great early season storm. 

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I am hearing the static on the AM radio from the heavy thunderstorms south of Long Island. There may be some small hail or groupel with the heaviest cells.

13594550-7C33-43EE-8490-F6CF8ED3B6B6.thumb.png.c88bb1270ac9b8f0ab1705a2cbb799c2.png

 

 

 

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11 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I assume you mean for coastal Queens and Kings County? Yes, don't expect much accumulation at all in those areas. I guess I could have put them in the 1-2" range but either way I think it's right around 1".

Everyone else has a few inches. We shall see.

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3 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

Agreed. I called 2-5" on FB for the city. Would be surprised if we get to 5. This one's got too much time to go to really know for sure, but I don't think the best banding will be here and we're always working against salted pavement. Still think this will be a great early season storm. 

The streets are starting to get slushy in Manhattan.  If we get banding , all the low totals will fail.

 

TWC has upped  the totals to 5-8 inches for NYC with the heaviest this evening and the snow ending  early Tuesday morning.

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1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

The streets are starting to get slushy in Manhattan.  If we get banding , all the low totals will fail.

 

TWC has upped  the totals to 5-8 inches for NYC with the heaviest this evening and the snow ending  early Tuesday morning.

The last time I took advice from TWC I was just about ten years old. 

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Just now, Wetbulbs88 said:

The last time I took advice from TWC I was just about ten years old. 

Their OCMs who make the forecasts are relatively good.  I don't see too many crazy snow forecasts from them inside 48 hours.  They are usually conservative 

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