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Zelocita Weather

Possible Dec 1-3 Winter Storm

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LOL yeah people are super tempestuous, not seeing the forest through the trees. This is one run of the GFS, a global model, and we're <24 hours out. Why anyone would take it as gospel at this point is astounding to me. 

Everyone needs to relax. Clearly we're all going to see snow, and you should be happy if it's anything more than a couple inches in a setup like this at this time of year. 

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18 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Idk why people are quitting on this storm. 2-5 is still very good. 

Because if we analyze every 2-5 inch snowstorm for 46+ pages, this is going to be an exhausting winter. This was always a tricky storm, but never really had an 'epic' side to it. When the primary low heads to the west of Buffalo, we usually have very difficult time getting these to pan out. There are legit severe thunderstorm warnings in western PA. When that happens, it usually causes me to really question what we will get. So far it seems the models are having a difficult time too. 

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4 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Because if we analyze every 2-5 inch snowstorm for 46+ pages, this is going to be an exhausting winter. This was always a tricky storm, but never really had an 'epic' side to it. When the primary low heads to the west of Buffalo, we usually have very difficult time getting these to pan out. There are legit severe thunderstorm warnings in western PA. When that happens, it usually causes me to really question what we will get. So far it seems the models are having a difficult time too. 

BINGO. I invested a ton of time to this storm and only to get 1 to 4 inches is very disappointing.

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1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

Hrdps has several inches for NYC  with more just to the west.

More than that from the looks of it. Good banding from the parkway east.

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6 minutes ago, kingbaus said:

More than that from the looks of it. Good banding from the parkway east.

Just saw the whole run

6+ for NYC  west with some 10 inch marks in North NJ.

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19 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Just saw the whole run

6+ for NYC  west with some 10 inch marks in North NJ.

Not as good as the 18z though. Looks like it's going to be nowcasting time.

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1 minute ago, kingbaus said:

Not as good as the 18z though. Looks like it's going to be nowcasting time.

Not as good for who?

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Just now, Snow88 said:

Not as good for who?

The banding looked stronger and more organized for the area. Still a good hit for the 0z though. 

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2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The UKMET definitely came east with the core of the QPF over NYC 

Gefs has it over the area while the op run has it over Philly.

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2 minutes ago, Doorman said:

 

you think this  system has some moxy to it???

loop it here ...then cool the bellyaching

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-northeast-13-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=data

 

COD-GOES-East-continental-conus.13.20191202.043616-over=map-bars=.gif

You did say this will trend east. I like your method.  I remember Joe Renken was talking about this on the accuweather forum.

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You did say this will trend east. I like your method.  I remember Joe Renken was talking about this on the accuweather forum.
I've never gone against Doorman, nor would I

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

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HOT off the press....

OPC surface prog.....dead center on the benchmark at 991mb

get your shovels ready in the  metro   :pepsi:

A_24hrsfc.thumb.gif.b0399da34cf923fd1dd042919db052c4.gif

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6 minutes ago, Doorman said:

HOT off the press....

OPC surface prog.....dead center on the benchmark at 991mb

get your shovels ready in the  metro   :pepsi:

A_24hrsfc.thumb.gif.b0399da34cf923fd1dd042919db052c4.gif

Doorman can you help a brother out ? I know the 70 40 line is what we look for with storms but are you saying and illustrating that the ULL is getting its act together over the 70- 40 mark ? can you please clarify for the novice / me what you are stating.

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4 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Doorman can you help a brother out ? I know the 70 40 line is what we look for with storms but are you saying and illustrating that the ULL is getting its act together over the 70- 40 mark ? can you please clarify for the novice / me what you are stating.

The ull should track over the benchmark 

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Doorman can you help a brother out ? I know the 70 40 line is what we look for with storms but are you saying and illustrating that the ULL is getting its act together over the 70- 40 mark ? can you please clarify for the novice / me what you are stating.
No, the sfc LP is over BM.
The ULL is about 10k feet in the air and would be to the NW of the LP, unless it is vertically stacked over BM which would mean that the surface LP, h85, h7 and h5 were all in the same place.

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1 minute ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Doorman can you help a brother out ? I know the 70 40 line is what we look for with storms but are you saying and illustrating that the ULL is getting its act together over the 70- 40 mark ? can you please clarify for the novice / me what you are stating.

Brasy

that is surface low track guidance

the ULL upper level low is progged to capture the surface low underneath it 

and that is shown here

A_24hr500.thumb.gif.efd0bc0988ddafcae6951562456c11c8.gif

 

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Brasy
that is surface low track guidance
the ULL upper level low is progged to capture the surface low underneath it 
and that is shown here
A_24hr500.thumb.gif.efd0bc0988ddafcae6951562456c11c8.gif
 
Which means nyc, LI, se MA, CT and RI are L about to be hit pretty hard brasil

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1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

The ull should track over the benchmark 

88 ,thats what I though it showed but I honestly was thinking that the ULL would get its act together farther North than that especially looking at where the system entered ( Norm Macdonald rule ) on the west coast ----I am not complaining I was just confused

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