• Member Statistics

    15,935
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Danny8
    Newest Member
    Danny8
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
AMZ8990

December/January 2019/20 Winter Speculation Thread

Recommended Posts

14 minutes ago, tennvolfan said:

 I’ve noticed an overall uptick in late winter events around here......Pre 2000, I would never have believed that late winter would produce without producing in January- but it appears it’s more likely now. I can’t find any records in this area that late winter events happened after nothing earlier. Maybe it’s a new precedent in this late phase positive AMO. I think the AMO needs to flip to see where the cards fall. We are nearly 25 years into the positive phase so it’s time is limited.

 

No doubt that it seems late winter has been producing better than mid winter for the last decade or so. Maybe the lengthening wavelengths negate whatever pattern/climate problems or bad luck we've had in the heart of winter. I was mostly lamenting that 13-14 and 14-15 had the potential to bust the area out of the long term snow drought. Nashville is way overdue a 20"+ year, or at least a couple of 15" years in a row. You can't convince me that at least some of it isn't bad luck because places in all directions have had some big years in the last decade.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12z GFS @ 210 please.

About as perfect as it gets for Eastern areas in terms of track. Just inside Hatterus.

 

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

 

 

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said:

About as perfect as it gets for Eastern areas in terms of track. Just inside Hatterus.

 

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

I haven't looked super carefully today at much...computer issue this AM.  That said, looks like the third straight run with that.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Surprised the slider on the 0z Euro at 130ish has not been spoken about.  The 12z GFS has a faint sig of that small system.  The Euro at 0z also had the d9 storm as well, but was more amped.  I would be glad to split the difference between the 12z GFS and 0z Euro regarding that storm.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Check out the 500 anomaly at 342 on the 12z GFS.  Probably should say that in banter since that is an operational at extreme range, but that is pretty impressive.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Both the GFS and CMC have cooled considerably over our forum region around 8.  Of course the CMC only goes through 240 by the GFS goes through d10.  Those runs are a break from continuity.  

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The 12z GEFS mean has increased to fairly hefty amounts across the forum area for the fourth straight run.  Impressive, but take it with a huge grain knowing its verification lately.   

1430205647_ScreenShot2020-01-22at12_41_19PM.png.e23235400ef58c2ff8417c51528f7631.png

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So, is the new supercomputer part of the GEPS as well?  Gets this look late in the run.  Probably not super accurate given the time, but just wondering if the ensemble is running on the new computer.

941400767_ScreenShot2020-01-22at12_54_19PM.png.2b4c6dacaf12ef722007f573c723f693.png

 

 

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In the words of Yoda...there is another.  The Euro leaves energy behind and then grabs it with a second coastal Miller A.  Looks to me like the operationals at 12z are fairly similar.   Definitely a time frame to watch.  

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Look at that banana high sitting over that system on the 12z Euro.  At 240, there is yet another vortex diving into the back of that trough.  All told, there is a bowling ball, a Miller A, and who knows what coming right after that.

2047077935_ScreenShot2020-01-22at2_02_48PM.png.272bace12a5fa7db3ada0d7436c93b86.png

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Seeing this weekends system dwindle away has been tough, but I am more than happy to make it back to back trips if next weekends storm can trend well. Heck, some of the looks I am seeing on both the GFS and Euro would not take a lot of tweaking to get my home state in on some action. I have plenty of travel miles saved up, so I will stay tuned.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Control looks like it would have been a beast, but don't have the individual members yet, outside of UL winds:

giphy.gif

Looks like the 850 circulation was a little too far north for many of use though:

giphy.gif

Might not be too bad though from NE Arkansas and NW TN up the Ohio valley

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

12z EPS looks good in the LR.  It is the last frame which is iffy on verification.  However, I am showing it to support the idea that the EPS today matches the Weeklies evolution.  

0B51B847-1BCA-4CBC-B6DB-960D06EC9719.jpeg

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Sorry, cut off the date when I cropped it.  The EPS map above is for Feb 6th. Looks remarkable similar to the GEPS. 

Could February make us forget about the horrors of December and January? 

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I believe the advertised cold ,and tbh ,probable snowy pattern has legs this time . The eps plot carvers just posted is actually showing a Greenland block trying to setup along with the +PNA and CPF.. STJ staying active as well.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I am not sure about day 15, but day 9-10 is lit with possibilities.  Doesn't mean anything has to happen, but the general look is there on all global modeling.

 

 

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, weathertree4u said:

Could February make us forget about the horrors of December and January? 

LOL.  Man, it would have to be an awesome pattern to move an overall D- pattern into the A column.  So many of these LR patterns have withered away to nothing.  That has been a trend all winter.  But I like Boone’s optimism.  He has been doing this for a while.  For now, I am going to enjoy the blue being on the correct side of the continent on recent ensemble runs, but w one eye over my shoulder.   

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

18z GEFS snow mean that @John1122 mentioned.  It is a bit of an outlier, but not sure I have seen the GEFS this strong in some time.  Also, the GEFS has the least coldest look of all of the ensembles, but was still better than 12z.  As @Daniel Boone mentioned, heights are building in the general vicinity of Greenland.  IF that happens, that would allow the cold to finally be blocked and held in NA.  Long way to go, but we are going to enjoy each run.

Screen Shot 2020-01-22 at 7.19.05 PM.png

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
29 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

@Mr. Kevin

There is a conversation about that here (I'm baroowoofr):

https://southernwx.com/community/threads/january-2020-operation-thaw-alaska.663/page-136#post-232967

 

Sadly, I have had three 10% beers now and am beyond further cogent answers ATT.

Also see:

 

I'm Mr. Golf over there lol. I haven't been there in a while though. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.