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Bob Chill

December 2019 Med/Long Range Disco

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Gfs shows the path to a white Xmas miracle. I’m not saying the 17/18th system isn’t a threat.  But if it does end up phasing with the TPV and cutting that will pinwheel the whole PV down to our north then northeast and set up a good prolonged window of opportunity right before Xmas. And given the fact the stj keeps throwing waves at us every 3-4 days I find it likely something would take advantage.  This pattern isn’t perfect but keep the stj active and the pattern workable and amplified and I think it’s only a matter of time. 

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Gfs shows the path to a white Xmas miracle. I’m not saying the 17/18th system isn’t a threat.  But if it does end up phasing with the TPV and cutting that will pinwheel the whole PV down to our north then northeast and set up a good prolonged window of opportunity right before Xmas. And given the fact the stj keeps throwing waves at us every 3-4 days I find it likely something would take advantage.  This pattern isn’t perfect but keep the stj active and the pattern workable and amplified and I think it’s only a matter of time. 

Feel this story keeps repeating! Always the storm after the storm. But I would take it! Tuesday front thump would still be good though.

 

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1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said:

Feel this story keeps repeating! Always the storm after the storm. But I would take it! Tuesday front thump would still be good though.

 

It prob won't work that way. Something will pop up in the medium range after we already wrote it off in the long range. Flow is very busy. Has the feel that something will work out. Might not be clean or pretty but the pattern is way better than a shutout and it's not terribly hard to get an event mid Dec onward. 

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6 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

GEFS def liking this period (D10-12) more than 12z.  Not bad...

emD3cFE.png

Agreed. One of the better h5 looks of the year right here. Legit 50/50 and -NAO. 

500h_anom.nh.png

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4 minutes ago, frd said:

 

Can anyone confirm the HH GFS has a massive Scandinavian ridge modeled out in fantasy land. 

 

Yea, it's pretty massive but it also doesn't start forming until d8+. GEFS has some support for the idea but not enough to favor the idea.

gfs_z500a_nhem_65.png

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5 minutes ago, frd said:

 

Can anyone confirm the HH GFS has a massive Scandinavian ridge modeled out in fantasy land. 

 

Has a strong scand ridge forming around D9 and remains in place to the end of the run. Can see it feeding the -NAO in the NAO region. GEFS also supports the OP with a scand ridge forming around the same timeframe as the HH GFS.

Edit: Ninja'd by Bob

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A follow-up on this, as HM spoke about this about a week ago.  The interesting thing is, as Hugo mentions, since it is from the Euro it raises the eye brow a little more. If anything, displacements and elongations can benefit us.  No worries about a SSWE, but these little things do matter. 

 

 

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ICON looks like the eps members that hit us with the waa piece on the next one. It's a decent setup if things are spaced out right. A little more push from the 50/50 and this could be a big hit

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_47.png

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00z GFS wants no part of what the ICON shows and blows up a huge cutter for middle of next week - but it does bring in some nice arctic air in the process as it moves into Canada

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13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

A number of 3-6" events have happened over the years like the icon is showing. Euro control was similar

Yep. And then dry-slotted with foggy drizzle. We had a lot of front end storms like that where I came home soaked to the bone from sledding, carrying my dead right arm in my left hand because I heaved too many snow balls.

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If that HP in the Northern Plains can move in tandem with the SLP in LA at 240 on the 00z GFS...
And a southern slider... with rain.  Interesting...
Were going to have 15 near misses this year like 2000-2001
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Before the Monday system... total snowfall for the area predicted by 00z Euro by 12z Monday

ecmwf-deterministic-md-total_snow_10to1-6497600.thumb.png.5c093d5900547141350d7c575ff52f29.png

 

Total snowfall by 06z TUES... by this time most everyone has changed to rain or is in the process of N and W of the metros... no real additional accumulations are shown after this image for the LWX CWA 

ecmwf-deterministic-md-total_snow_10to1-6562400.thumb.png.fa03507c1be9a542bcde11a1368a3412.png

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