psuhoffman Posted December 10, 2019 Gfs shows the path to a white Xmas miracle. I’m not saying the 17/18th system isn’t a threat. But if it does end up phasing with the TPV and cutting that will pinwheel the whole PV down to our north then northeast and set up a good prolonged window of opportunity right before Xmas. And given the fact the stj keeps throwing waves at us every 3-4 days I find it likely something would take advantage. This pattern isn’t perfect but keep the stj active and the pattern workable and amplified and I think it’s only a matter of time. 9 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
midatlanticweather Posted December 10, 2019 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Gfs shows the path to a white Xmas miracle. I’m not saying the 17/18th system isn’t a threat. But if it does end up phasing with the TPV and cutting that will pinwheel the whole PV down to our north then northeast and set up a good prolonged window of opportunity right before Xmas. And given the fact the stj keeps throwing waves at us every 3-4 days I find it likely something would take advantage. This pattern isn’t perfect but keep the stj active and the pattern workable and amplified and I think it’s only a matter of time. Feel this story keeps repeating! Always the storm after the storm. But I would take it! Tuesday front thump would still be good though. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Amped Posted December 10, 2019 Thats a pretty good impression of the February 22 1987 storm on the GFS 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
poolz1 Posted December 10, 2019 GEFS def liking this period (D10-12) more than 12z. Not bad... 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2019 1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said: Feel this story keeps repeating! Always the storm after the storm. But I would take it! Tuesday front thump would still be good though. It prob won't work that way. Something will pop up in the medium range after we already wrote it off in the long range. Flow is very busy. Has the feel that something will work out. Might not be clean or pretty but the pattern is way better than a shutout and it's not terribly hard to get an event mid Dec onward. 3 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2019 6 minutes ago, poolz1 said: GEFS def liking this period (D10-12) more than 12z. Not bad... Agreed. One of the better h5 looks of the year right here. Legit 50/50 and -NAO. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
losetoa6 Posted December 10, 2019 Didnt see the Ukmet posted. Hour 144 looks real intriguing to me . Minimum front end frozen . Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Always in Zugzwang Posted December 10, 2019 36 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Gfs shows the path to a white Xmas miracle. Miracle on K Street!! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2019 For 10-12 days out, this is a pretty good storm signal. Some legit coastal nukes mixed in with the rainers. 6 3 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
losetoa6 Posted December 11, 2019 Anybody guess this 500mb composite Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JakkelWx Posted December 11, 2019 4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Anybody guess this 500mb composite Hint? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JH89 Posted December 11, 2019 5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Anybody guess this 500mb composite December 2009? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
losetoa6 Posted December 11, 2019 Winner winner chicken dinner...^ Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
frd Posted December 11, 2019 Never really thought about the role of cyclonic wave breaking and the location of the TPV. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
frd Posted December 11, 2019 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Winner winner chicken dinner...^ Gift card would be cool .... I love coffee :-) 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
losetoa6 Posted December 11, 2019 1 minute ago, frd said: Gift card would be cool .... I love coffee :-) Yea...I prefer cash or beer but yea 2009 one of my favs of all time mostly for time of year . 1 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
frd Posted December 11, 2019 Can anyone confirm the HH GFS has a massive Scandinavian ridge modeled out in fantasy land. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bob Chill Posted December 11, 2019 4 minutes ago, frd said: Can anyone confirm the HH GFS has a massive Scandinavian ridge modeled out in fantasy land. Yea, it's pretty massive but it also doesn't start forming until d8+. GEFS has some support for the idea but not enough to favor the idea. 1 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JakkelWx Posted December 11, 2019 5 minutes ago, frd said: Can anyone confirm the HH GFS has a massive Scandinavian ridge modeled out in fantasy land. Has a strong scand ridge forming around D9 and remains in place to the end of the run. Can see it feeding the -NAO in the NAO region. GEFS also supports the OP with a scand ridge forming around the same timeframe as the HH GFS. Edit: Ninja'd by Bob 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
frd Posted December 11, 2019 A follow-up on this, as HM spoke about this about a week ago. The interesting thing is, as Hugo mentions, since it is from the Euro it raises the eye brow a little more. If anything, displacements and elongations can benefit us. No worries about a SSWE, but these little things do matter. 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bob Chill Posted December 11, 2019 ICON looks like the eps members that hit us with the waa piece on the next one. It's a decent setup if things are spaced out right. A little more push from the 50/50 and this could be a big hit 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ji Posted December 11, 2019 Icon with a thump to rain Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bob Chill Posted December 11, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: Icon with a thump to rain A number of 3-6" events have happened over the years like the icon is showing. Euro control was similar 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
yoda Posted December 11, 2019 00z GFS wants no part of what the ICON shows and blows up a huge cutter for middle of next week - but it does bring in some nice arctic air in the process as it moves into Canada Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
nw baltimore wx Posted December 11, 2019 13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: A number of 3-6" events have happened over the years like the icon is showing. Euro control was similar Yep. And then dry-slotted with foggy drizzle. We had a lot of front end storms like that where I came home soaked to the bone from sledding, carrying my dead right arm in my left hand because I heaved too many snow balls. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
yoda Posted December 11, 2019 If that HP in the Northern Plains can move in tandem with the SLP in LA at 240 on the 00z GFS... And a southern slider... with rain. Interesting... Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ji Posted December 11, 2019 If that HP in the Northern Plains can move in tandem with the SLP in LA at 240 on the 00z GFS... And a southern slider... with rain. Interesting...Were going to have 15 near misses this year like 2000-2001 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
yoda Posted December 11, 2019 00z Euro has a quick thump late Monday before changing to rain on Tuesday morning Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
yoda Posted December 11, 2019 Before the Monday system... total snowfall for the area predicted by 00z Euro by 12z Monday Total snowfall by 06z TUES... by this time most everyone has changed to rain or is in the process of N and W of the metros... no real additional accumulations are shown after this image for the LWX CWA 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
losetoa6 Posted December 11, 2019 I'll take the Ukmet look for now for the early week storm ....if anything this is probably a se slider verbatim. A bump nw at game time and we r on. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
