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29 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Pulled from Twitter. Their defense. 

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The probability game is where I get suspicious...having been involved in developing inputs to probabilistic methods. Highly sensitive to assumptions and input data sets.  I have wondered how NWS comes up with these estimates.   Bottom line is you can't ever really be "wrong" using probabalistic forecasts.  In this case I wonder how they are determining there is less than a 50% chance of Warning criteria snow at this time.

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A watch should be just what it says, a watch. They should have posted a watch on Thursday or Friday. Then late today they either upgrade or downgrade. The watch should just put the potential for significant snow on the general populations radar as far in advance as possible.  We’ve all been eyeing this storm for days. It’s so stupid they wait until less than 24 for hours before they actually acknowledge the storm to the general public. 

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21 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

The probability game is where I get suspicious...having been involved in developing inputs to probabilistic methods. Highly sensitive to assumptions and input data sets.  I have wondered how NWS comes up with these estimates.   Bottom line is you can't ever really be "wrong" using probabalistic forecasts.  In this case I wonder how they are determining there is less than a 50% chance of Warning criteria snow at this time.

It's the watch definition. All forecasts by nature are subjective (using a combination of objective and subjective data)...so if the forecaster don't feel 50 percent confident for 7" in 12 h and/or 9" in 24 h it won't be issued. I do the same thing in my work. 

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12 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

6-10” of heavy wet snow. Maximums of 10-15” total in chat ridge and higher elevations away from Lake Ontario. 

I think the first 2 or 3 inches will be wet but once daylight ends on no day evening and the temps in the 20's will lend to a fluffier snow. Oh and the Euro is still the king!!!

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5 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

A watch should be just what it says, a watch. They should have posted a watch on Thursday or Friday. Then late today they either upgrade or downgrade. The watch should just put the potential for significant snow on the general populations radar as far in advance as possible.  We’ve all been eyeing this storm for days. It’s so stupid they wait until less than 24 for hours before they actually acknowledge the storm to the general public. 

But that's not the definition of the watch. The long fused stuff multiple days in advance can be covered in those hazard weather outlooks. Just a day or two ago this didn't look warning level...it looked more of 3-6 inch type storm. 

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Just now, OSUmetstud said:

But that's not the definition of the watch. The long fused stuff multiple days in advance can be covered in those hazard weather outlooks. Just a day or two ago this didn't look warning level...it looked more of 3-6 inch type storm. 

The general public isn’t reading HWO’s. They only take note when it scrolls on the tv or is mentioned on the radio with an official stamp from the NWS.  I understand it’s a complicated topic. I still think it needs work. 

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Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

I agree the watch should not have been issued until today. But should have been the early morning after last nights runs showed consensus. 

Those early morning runs were still not definitely warning level...they were right around that 6 to 10 inches in 24 h range. Either way...its going to snow, enjoy.

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9 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

It's the watch definition. All forecasts by nature are subjective (using a combination of objective and subjective data)...so if the forecaster don't feel 50 percent confident for 7" in 12 h and/or 9" in 24 h it won't be issued. I do the same thing in my work. 

Right. That's what i suspected. It's more a guesstimate based on knowledge level and experience.  It's not algo based. I see some NWS products that are graphically displayed in probabilities (snowfall etc.).  I've wondered how these probabilities are determined. 

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Just now, DeltaT13 said:

Why can’t a watch be more general. It should be called a potential storm watch. Lol.  It’s just a shame because they could look like heroes calling potential storms 5 days out. They should apply some sort of confidence to them.  I dunno. Just musing now. 

Well put a line or two in our synopsis for our clients if something big appears to be coming in the next 3 to 5 days. This storm never really looked big until later yesterday; I thought.

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2 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Right. That's what u suspected. It's more a guesstinate based on knowledge level and experience.  It's not algo based. I see some NWS products that are graphically displayed in probabilities (snowfall etc.).  I've wondered how these probabilities are determined. 

Yeah they might have more sref or eps based algos than I have but in the end I'm pretty sure the forecaster issues the watch based on that stuff and feel/experience. 

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16 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

But that's not the definition of the watch. The long fused stuff multiple days in advance can be covered in those hazard weather outlooks. Just a day or two ago this didn't look warning level...it looked more of 3-6 inch type storm. 

it still does look like a 3-6" synoptic event and LE will win out, always does

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