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yotaman

October 2019 Observations

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Well, Oct 1st in the books. Today's average was +16 at GSP and +17 at both CLT and AVL, with GSP and AVL setting record highs. And looks like the next two days will  be even hotter.

All time record highs for October: AVL 90 (1941), GSP 97 (1954), and CLT 98(1954). These could be threatened, especially AVL. 

BTW, 10pm temps at the three airports: AVL 73, GSP 78, CLT 80!  11pm update: AVL 72, GSP 77, CLT 79.

Truly an incredible pattern we've been in. 

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In parts of the South, monthly record high temperatures were shattered. Monthly records included:

Birmingham: 99° (previous October record: 94°, 10/1/1919, 10/5/1927, and 10/6/1954)
Chattanooga, TN: 97° (previous October record: 94°, 10/5/1954)
Huntsville, AL: 99° (previous October record: 96°, 10/8/1911)
Lexington, KY: 97° (previous October record: 93°, 10/6/1941)
Louisville: 96° (previous October record: 93°, 10/7-8/2007)
Mobile: 97° (previous October record:95°, 10/2/1904)
Montgomery, AL: 101° (previous October record: 100°, 10/6/1954)
Nashville: 98° (previous October record: 95°, 10/1/1953, 10/5/1954, and 10/8/2007)
Pensacola: 96° (previous October record: 95°, 10/8/1884 and 10/5/1951)

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7 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

In parts of the South, monthly record high temperatures were shattered. Monthly records included:

Birmingham: 99° (previous October record: 94°, 10/1/1919, 10/5/1927, and 10/6/1954)
Chattanooga, TN: 97° (previous October record: 94°, 10/5/1954)
Huntsville, AL: 99° (previous October record: 96°, 10/8/1911)
Lexington, KY: 97° (previous October record: 93°, 10/6/1941)
Louisville: 96° (previous October record: 93°, 10/7-8/2007)
Mobile: 97° (previous October record:95°, 10/2/1904)
Montgomery, AL: 101° (previous October record: 100°, 10/6/1954)
Nashville: 98° (previous October record: 95°, 10/1/1953, 10/5/1954, and 10/8/2007)
Pensacola: 96° (previous October record: 95°, 10/8/1884 and 10/5/1951)

We're buckling up for another two days of historic heat. from RAH:

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 355 AM Wednesday... ...DAY 2 OF RECORD/HISTORICAL HEAT... In response to the upper trough progressing east across the Great Lakes and into the NE US by Thursday night, the upper heat ridge will begin to weaken late Thursday and Thursday night, but not before one last day of record heat. With the pocket of 20 to 21 C H8 temps still residing over the region, the EC indicates thicknesses will rise another 10 meters from Wednesday, which is usually good for 2 to 3 degrees of warmth with highs expected to top out in the mid to upper 90s. These temps will shatter daily record highs and quite possibly challenge the all-time hottest October temperature of 98 and 95 degrees at RDU and GSO respectively. Heat indices in the low 100s are expected from the Triangle, south and east. Once again, will highlight these indices in the HWO. The shortwave trough into the NE US will propel a moisture starved backdoor cold front south through the Mid-Atlantic region Thursday night. Latest model timing brings the cold front towards our northern border right around daybreak. Still mostly clear. Overnight lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.  

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Morning in the low 70s in Oct.....Ugh!  Highs in the mid 90s....ugh!  Still bone dry....Ugh!  Friday better be the beginning of the end of this crappy summer because my 100lbs of grass seed depends on it.  I either get the rain now or I'll be watching that new PBS special called "Growing amazing weed lawns with JBurns".

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4 hours ago, FallsLake said:

We're buckling up for another two days of historic heat. from RAH:

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 355 AM Wednesday... ...DAY 2 OF RECORD/HISTORICAL HEAT... In response to the upper trough progressing east across the Great Lakes and into the NE US by Thursday night, the upper heat ridge will begin to weaken late Thursday and Thursday night, but not before one last day of record heat. With the pocket of 20 to 21 C H8 temps still residing over the region, the EC indicates thicknesses will rise another 10 meters from Wednesday, which is usually good for 2 to 3 degrees of warmth with highs expected to top out in the mid to upper 90s. These temps will shatter daily record highs and quite possibly challenge the all-time hottest October temperature of 98 and 95 degrees at RDU and GSO respectively. Heat indices in the low 100s are expected from the Triangle, south and east. Once again, will highlight these indices in the HWO. The shortwave trough into the NE US will propel a moisture starved backdoor cold front south through the Mid-Atlantic region Thursday night. Latest model timing brings the cold front towards our northern border right around daybreak. Still mostly clear. Overnight lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.  

Yes. This is an extremely impressive outbreak of heat.

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This would be a hot period in July, for October it's truly exceptional. Hoping and praying the cooldown comes with some rain chances. It is bone dry. On a side note, the farm got a surprise storm and what looked like .5" of rain (I don't have a guage out there, basing entirely on puddles). Also, my prediction on ducks came true today. As everything around has dried up and my farm's beaver swamps are some of the only holding good water, we almost had a 3 man limit this morning before work.

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1 hour ago, olafminesaw said:

90 degrees at noon, in October. No thanks

Yep, beyond ridiculous! I can't \beleive how muggy it is out there; 86/73 IMBY, absolutley feels like mid summer. 

1pm observations"

 

CAE 91/68

GSP 93/64

CLT 94/67

 

CAE the cool spot!

I think there's some downslopping warming the piedmont so ...

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6 hours ago, kvegas-wx said:

Morning in the low 70s in Oct.....Ugh!  Highs in the mid 90s....ugh!  Still bone dry....Ugh!  Friday better be the beginning of the end of this crappy summer because my 100lbs of grass seed depends on it.  I either get the rain now or I'll be watching that new PBS special called "Growing amazing weed lawns with JBurns".

Wrong title. I need to bring in more young folks.

Weed. It's not just for smoking.

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As of 4pm

AVL 90

GSP 95

CLT 97

AVL has at least tied it's all time Oct record, as has GSP. Wouldn't be suprised if they rose above between readings. CLT just one degree shy of it's monthly record. Daily records shattered at all 3 locations. Tomorrow could even be hotter. All 3 locations will also be threatening maximum low readings for tommorrow.!

 

Here's an excerpt form GSP:

 

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT: Large upper level anticyclone will remain centered
nearly on top of the forecast area thru the near term. The high is
keeping the atmosphere suppressed, with just a cu field in place
this aftn. A stray shower or two may be able to overcome the
subsidence due to the intense heating we are experiencing, but
overall, going with a dry fcst. Record highs are already broken at
the time of this writing at all three sites, and still rising. KAVL
still has a shot at tying or breaking its all-time October high temp
(90) this aftn. Tonight will be about the same as last night---
mostly clear skies and light winds with mountain valley fog and some
haze around daybreak. Temps will only manage to fall into the upper
60s to lower 70s, which will be around record high minimums for
tomorrow.

As a cold front approaches from the NW Thursday, low-level flow will
increase slightly out of the NW, resulting in about 10 kts of
downslope flow. This on top of very warm llvl thicknesses should
bump temps up a deg or two from today`s readings. Have gone on the
warm side of guidance once again, with temps breaking all-time
October record high at KAVL (90 deg), and possibly tying or breaking
at KGSP (97) and CLT (98), as well. No precip is expected.

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Today saw more historic heat across parts of the South. For the first time on record, Birmingham's annual maximum temperature was recorded in October. Tuscaloosa's 101° figure tied the high temperature of 9/13 for the year's hottest reading.

Select records (and the list is not all-inclusive):

Athens, GA: 98°(tied October record)
Atlanta: 96° (new October record)
Baltimore: 98° (new October record) ***59th 90° day ties record set in 2010***
Birmingham, AL: 103° (new October record) ***first annual high temperature in October; records go back to 1895; previous latest such temperature 9/9 in 1925***
Charlotte: 99° (new October record)
Huntsville, AL: 100° (new October record)
Lexington, KY: 96°
Louisville: 96°
Macon, GA: 98°
Mobile, AL: 96°
Montgomery, AL: 99°
Nashville: 99° (new October record)
Norfolk: 97° (new October record)
Pensacola: 93°
Raleigh: 96°
Richmond: 98°
Sterling, VA: 96° (new October record)
Tuscaloosa, AL: 101°(new October record) ***tied the 9/13/2019 reading for the hottest this year; first October entry in the record book; records go back to 1948***
Washington, DC: 98° (new October record)

 

Distribution of Birmingham's Highest Annual Temperature by Month (1895-2019)

May: 3 (2.1%)
June: 28 (19.3%)
July: 53 (36.6%)
August: 43 (29.7%)
September: 17 (11.7%)
October: 1 (0.7%)

Note: The numbers add up to more than the 125-year record, because some years saw the highest annual temperature occur in more than one month.

 

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Thanks for posting Don. Also, GSP did not go above 97, but as mentioned that ties the October all time high. Also ties the high for the year. Tommorow forecast is for 98 so it would break both. It would also be the hottest temp recorded at GSP since July 2016. 

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On the flip side, Great Falls Montana reached 9 degrees crushing the old record of 22 for October 1st, where temps stayed below freezing for 65 consecutive hours! Babb Montana received 52 inches of snow. Hard to believe there's any cold somewhere out there. 

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5 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

On the flip side, Great Falls Montana reached 9 degrees crushing the old record of 22 for October 1st, where temps stayed below freezing for 65 consecutive hours! Babb Montana received 52 inches of snow. Hard to believe there's any cold somewhere out there. 

Cut Bank fell to 1° yesterday.

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There is something so very wrong with this 86° at 11am.  It doesn't even feel like a July heat.  The sun angle is wonky, the hot is a different kind of hot.  Don't know what it is.  It's like there is a radiant furnace in front of your face instead of a humid, oppressive sun burning kinda hot.  

Then again I may be delusional from heat exhaustion.  I hope this cold front rides in on a chariot with trumpets from the heavens.  

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At 11 am CDT, the temperature at Birmingham reached 95°. That surpassed the daily record of 93°, which was set in 1911.

Birmingham has now recorded daily record high temperatures on 8 consecutive days. That surpasses the old record of 7 consecutive days, which was set in 1925 and tied in 1962.

7-Consecutive Daily Record High Temperatures:

September 3-9, 1925
May 16-22, 1962 (1962 recorded 16 record high temperatures in May)

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22 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

There is something so very wrong with this 86° at 11am.  It doesn't even feel like a July heat.  The sun angle is wonky, the hot is a different kind of hot.  Don't know what it is.  It's like there is a radiant furnace in front of your face instead of a humid, oppressive sun burning kinda hot.  

Then again I may be delusional from heat exhaustion.  I hope this cold front rides in on a chariot with trumpets from the heavens.  

Yeah, I think especially with dewpoints lower than typical of a heat wave, it doesn't feel so bad. It's just strange because I would normally associate a dry heat with intense sun. 

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7 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Yeah, I think especially with dewpoints lower than typical of a heat wave, it doesn't feel so bad. It's just strange because I would normally associate a dry heat with intense sun. 

Exactly.  If this was July with direct sun you would have a 100+° day in the Triad with indexes in the teens.  

We should be tracking the cold front tonight like a January Big Dog from 24 hours out.  

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