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Tyler Penland

2019/2020 Mountains and Foothills Fall/Winter Thread.

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Decent signal on the 12z EPS, and euro had some light snow on its 12z run. Wasn’t able to get away last weekend, but should be able to this weekend if things can pan out. 
 

EPS sniffing out some big dogs like the crazy 12z gfs run the other day in the longer range 

75111F17-F4FE-4F4A-8142-2DEE3B0FBE02.png

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10 hours ago, mryanwilkes said:

I am taking the family up to Sugar Mtn. this weekend for the kids' first snow/tubing trip.  I'm sure that the slope itself has a slightly different climate than Boone, but those several days this week of staying above freezing (even at night) are a little worrisome.  Anyone in that area that can speak to snowmelt in mid 40's temps?

Thanks!

 

Drove by the slopes today and they looked good...didn't see any 'brown' spots...warmer rain tomorrow won't help-but looks like cooler temps Thursday and Friday, so they'll be blowing snow

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I am still intrigued with Thursday.  Most recent 12km NAM & 3km is limiting that warm nose at 700mb and could allow some sloppy flakes to fall during heavy precipitation bursts.  Then the 12km has a bit of deformation action on the backside Thursday night.  Still several details need to be resolved and 1-2 degrees here is going to make a huge difference for valley locations.  Continuing to watch soundings.   Elevations above 3500' should see 2"-4".

 

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Here is the sounding from around KAVL early Thursday AM as showers move in per the 12z 12km NAM.  3k NAM is around 2 degrees warmer.  Very limited warm nose here which is certainly something to watch.  

nam_2020030306_057_35.39--82.51.png

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31 minutes ago, SnoJoe said:

Rain. And more rain. Woke to thunder this morning and it has been pouring ever since. Almost an inch already. I'm sick of rain.

Seems like it's always one extreme or the other with precip around here.  

That storm was LOUD this morning.  I bet my dogs are still hiding in the basement. 

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53 minutes ago, Hvward said:

I am still intrigued with Thursday.  Most recent 12km NAM & 3km is limiting that warm nose at 700mb and could allow some sloppy flakes to fall during heavy precipitation bursts.  Then the 12km has a bit of deformation action on the backside Thursday night.  Still several details need to be resolved and 1-2 degrees here is going to make a huge difference for valley locations.  Continuing to watch soundings.   Elevations above 3500' should see 2"-4".

 

worth leaving Boone Thursday night instead of Early Friday morning for my 7am flight out of Asheville?

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24 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said:

worth leaving Boone Thursday night instead of Early Friday morning for my 7am flight out of Asheville?

Could be.  Not sure how that trailing precipitation is going to act.  All depends on the phase and when it occurs.  GFS has it moving in around 8am so I guess we shall see.

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2 hours ago, Hvward said:

12z Euro is basically a complete whiff for everyone.

That's not quite the death blow this season that it's been in years past though, right?.  I'm gonna miss out on this one regardless, my mom had a stroke (she's fine) so I'm going to be in Columbia this weekend.  I hope it's a good one for y'all!

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Yeah Euro isn’t the King anymore. If the NAM nails this one I will start calling it the king. 12km 18z NAM run just gave KAVL 3.5” on the kuchera maps... has a perfect snow sounding around 11am Thursday.

 

 

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That's not quite the death blow this season that it's been in years past though, right?.  I'm gonna miss out on this one regardless, my mom had a stroke (she's fine) so I'm going to be in Columbia this weekend.  I hope it's a good one for y'all!


Sorry to hear about your mom buddy. Hope her recovery is quick and painless!
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3 hours ago, Buckethead said:

That's not quite the death blow this season that it's been in years past though, right?.  I'm gonna miss out on this one regardless, my mom had a stroke (she's fine) so I'm going to be in Columbia this weekend.  I hope it's a good one for y'all!

Sorry to hear about your mom. Thoughts and prayers for you and your family for a speedy recovery. 

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Anybody watching the NAM? Another 3”-4” event for Asheville Thursday afternoon and into the night. Not really sure what to think. Absolutely nothing else shows this. Looking at the soundings the column around Asheville goes frozen right as the heavy precip moves in. Weak LP keeps that warm nose down. Cold air source is very meager. That’s the problem here, but NAM says it’s enough.

 

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11 minutes ago, Hvward said:

Anybody watching the NAM? Another 3”-4” event for Asheville Thursday afternoon and into the night. Not really sure what to think. Absolutely nothing else shows this. Looking at the soundings the column around Asheville goes frozen right as the heavy precip moves in. Weak LP keeps that warm nose down. Cold air source is very meager. That’s the problem here, but NAM says it’s enough.

 

Most years I would say the NAM is off it’s rocker, but it’s hard to discount this year. I believe elevations above 3500 feet might be able to score some snow.

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6z NAM is a tad bit warmer and that makes all of the difference. Let’s see what the 12z runs day, but it’s about time to start leaning on the 3km.

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12z NAM really hammers the Northern and central mountains right along the boarder tomorrow into tomorrow night then a lul then some upslope snow comes in. The GFS shows no snow until some upslope comes through on Friday. 

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A lot of the global models keep most if not all of the moisture to the south. I won't complain 

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of course the Nam would show the biggest snow of the season for the northern counties at the exact same time I'm leaving for Florida lol

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Even the stubborn Euro gives snow above 4,000 FT. Thickness and 700 mb Ts fall with precip. Thursday is happening at the ski areas. Then we have Friday NWFS.

:ski:

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18 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

Even the stubborn Euro gives snow above 4,000 FT. Thickness and 700 mb Ts fall with precip. Thursday is happening at the ski areas. Then we have Friday NWFS.

:ski:

Yeah I think the first batch could be very elevation dependent then we get the upslope later.

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18z NAM suite is warm, and most of the precip stays to the South with the initial thump.  Backside still looks decent though above 3500'.

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8 hours ago, Buckethead said:

Thanks!  She was up and walking around today, so things are looking up for her.

Excellent news man! That is awesome! Keep us updated.  I was thinking maybe this spring or summer we could all have a mountain meet up or something. 

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