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Tyler Penland

2019/2020 Mountains and Foothills Fall/Winter Thread.

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14 minutes ago, natbright said:

https://www.weather.gov/jkl/198704_snowstorm
 

I remember talking to a few locals here in Saluda NC after the '93 event about 4/87.  (I moved here in 1990) some said that '87 was worse and that out by I-26 where the hotel is someone measured 27 inches with drifts up to 8 feet.  I've seen a few pics and honestly I think they might not have been too far off with the totals.  Was told that I-26 was closed for 3 days

 

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I wouldn't be surprised if there's a couple reports of thundersnow with that initial line along the front tomorrow. NAM looks fairly convective.

 

Only t-snow I've seen the last few years came from frontal lines falling as snow like this.

 

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I don’t really think I’ll get much in my neck of the woods but I hope y’all on the border get some accumulation!  
 

I have a question - what model do you think handles NW flow events the best?

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Latest Nam loving the northern counties with the initial banding. But it's just there to get my hopes up again ;). Let's see what happens this evening! 

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This morning I learned that GSP doesnt issue WSW's when the criteria is only met above 3500'. Seems odd to me.


000 FXUS62 KGSP 261144 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 644 AM EST Wed Feb 26 2020

...Will issue a Winter Weather Advisory for locations above 3500 feet where now totals will be highest. Lower elevations will see snow showers, but amounts should be limited due to typical NW flow factors. Elevations above 5000 feet could even see warning level snow, but due to local agreement, we don`t issue warnings for just those elevations.

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1 minute ago, Buckethead said:

This morning I learned that GSP doesnt issue WSW's when the criteria is only met above 3500'. Seems odd to me.


000 FXUS62 KGSP 261144 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 644 AM EST Wed Feb 26 2020

...Will issue a Winter Weather Advisory for locations above 3500 feet where now totals will be highest. Lower elevations will see snow showers, but amounts should be limited due to typical NW flow factors. Elevations above 5000 feet could even see warning level snow, but due to local agreement, we don`t issue warnings for just those elevations.

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My guess is probably not enough population living above 3,500 feet and would only cause confusion to the majority that live below that mark. 

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Good morning all....Hey I think that NWS policy only applies to 5000'+...
 
"Elevations above 5000 feet could even see warning level snow, but due to localagreement, we don`t issue warnings for just those elevations"

That makes total sense. I just didn't pay close enough attention to the wording.

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1 hour ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

My guess is probably not enough population living above 3,500 feet and would only cause confusion to the majority that live below that mark. 

That still doesn't make sense. Most people in wnc outside of Asheville work in another town. And to get to another town you usually need to travel over 3500'.

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This is interesting. 

 

Including the cities of Hartford, Cades Cove, Elkmont,
and Gatlinburg
1037 AM EST Wed Feb 26 2020

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
7 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8
  inches, mainly at elevations above 2500 feet, with locally
  higher amounts possible over the highest elevations. Winds
  gusting as high as 35 mph at times.

* WHERE...Cocke Smoky Mountains, Blount Smoky Mountains and
  Sevier Smoky Mountains Counties.

* WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Thursday
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Although the overall totals arent hugely different. The HRRR looks a lot different than the Nam in terms of intensity at the onset of the changeover.

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Although the overall totals arent hugely different. The HRRR looks a lot different than the Nam in terms of intensity at the onset of the changeover.
It's also initializing the current precip weaker/lighter than it really is.

Plenty of sun here and 55 so enough instability to get a little heavier precip going I would think. Just need temps to crash fast enough.

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It's also initializing the current precip weaker/lighter than it really is.

Plenty of sun here and 55 so enough instability to get a little heavier precip going I would think. Just need temps to crash fast enough.
I mean it does show some decent precip forming with the initial rain band, but just after that is abysmal. We shall see over the next few hours though.

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2 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said:

I mean it does show some decent precip forming with the initial rain band, but just after that is abysmal. We shall see over the next few hours though.

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Boone sounding during the heaviest precip. It'll be CLOSE with the surface crashing.

hrrr_2020022612_009_36.19--81.7.png

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51 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

12Z Euro not at all enthused with snow for the mtns tonight. I noticed the 12Z NAM also slashed totals pretty good. 

Yeah totals have been going down. I just think the models dont really handle NWFS all that well or it could just be this winter is cursed.

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17 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Yeah totals have been going down. I just think the models dont really handle NWFS all that well or it could just be this winters curse.

I fully believe this winter is cursed.

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I'm afraid this event is going to continue the "moister starved frontal passage" theme. Even upstream radar to the NW looks anemic. Temps are still in the low 40's as far west as Nashville as well. I'm sure some snow will be squeezed out but but I'm not expecting the 4 inches that are progged.

With all that being said, sometimes these flow snow scenarios can surprise. We'll see.

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Don't underestimate the power of the Force, convective NWFS. Good luck!

Oh MRX probably has more real estate and population up high; hence, the warnings.

Friday night may do better than progged too. They keep drying out, but I bet the ski areas get more.

:ski:

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