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Tyler Penland

2019/2020 Mountains and Foothills Fall/Winter Thread.

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From the pics I've seen 2017 was pretty great here in the N GA mountains also. I was unfortunately in Athens that day with a 34 degree rain so I missed it. Is the tilt and alignment of the trough next week at all similar to that setup or was it much less positively tilted? 

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From the pics I've seen 2017 was pretty great here in the N GA mountains also. I was unfortunately in Athens that day with a 34 degree rain so I missed it. Is the tilt and alignment of the trough next week at all similar to that setup or was it much less positively tilted? 

 A bit less of a positive tilt to the trough in 2017, also a much less expansive high. Models showed much less moisture leading up to the event but the GFS and Euro caught on within 36 hours. NAM had the storm pretty well but wavered with it some. Not exactly sure what to think with the less positive tilt to this look, but still thinking the precip shield expands north with more qpf. Reading back through the Mountain thread of 2017 and at one point in time we had the JMA, NAVGEM, & ICON? I think vs. the GFS, Euro, UKMET. Was a wild event to forecast.

 

 

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20 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

Euro with a huge northern shift with the precip. This storm should now have all of our attention.

I've felt like for days that the models were poorly handling the precip shield. If it's anything like every other system that's passed through during the last year, it'll overachieve on qpf and cover a lot of ground. Time will tell. 

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6z NAM has the precip oriented exactly how WNC would like it at hour 84. Yeah long range NAM ya da ya da, it nailed the last shortwave. GFS looks similar with that strip of precip over NGA into WNC. This feature has been shown on almost all models at some point in time over the past 3-4 days and you have to use those little hints. Let’s see today if that strip continues to expand and last for more frames. Also 0z EPS with a nice uptick in snow totals for WNC.

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Yeah as mentioned this is far from being nailed down.  We have seen this year after year. A northward trend is most likely with the precipitation coverage.  We have a lot of time for things to change for better or worst. Really things should be much more clear by tomorrow afternoon. 

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18 minutes ago, Hvward said:

6z NAM has the precip oriented exactly how WNC would like it at hour 84. Yeah long range NAM ya da ya da, it nailed the last shortwave. GFS looks similar with that strip of precip over NGA into WNC. This feature has been shown on almost all models at some point in time over the past 3-4 days and you have to use those little hints. Let’s see today if that strip continues to expand and last for more frames. Also 0z EPS with a nice uptick in snow totals for WNC.

What are your thoughts on the thermal profiles? 

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ECMWF looks good overnight, though typical Day 4 caveats are in effect. Other models agree somewhat, even if the GFS loses the system some runs. NAM appears to have it.

High press remains firm for the cold air. System tracking to the south, originating from Texas, my favorite for sliders / non-cutters. Northern stream appears to prevent any cut, if the HP wasn’t already enough. 700 mb temps look great for the Mountains. 

Lower elevations (Sanitarium) have boundary layer temp issues. Mountains should be fine, in fact at/below freezing above 3,000 FT. Starting late last week, better late than never!

:ski:

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9 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

ECMWF looks good overnight, though typical Day 4 caveats are in effect. Other models agree somewhat, even if the GFS loses the system some runs. NAM appears to have it.

High press remains firm for the cold air. System tracking to the south, originating from Texas, my favorite for sliders / non-cutters. Northern stream appears to prevent any cut, if the HP wasn’t already enough. 700 mb temps look great for the Mountains. 

Lower elevations (Sanitarium) have boundary layer temp issues. Mountains should be fine, in fact at/below freezing above 3,000 FT. Starting late last week, better late than never!

:ski:

All the pieces are there, this will be fun to nail down the specifics. What are your thoughts on orographic uplifting along the southern escarpment? I've seen @Rainforrest cash in with setups like this.

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What are your thoughts on the thermal profiles? 

Like nrgeff said, thermals look good for mountain locations, below 1500’ could struggle. We just need the moisture.

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1 hour ago, Hvward said:

6z NAM has the precip oriented exactly how WNC would like it at hour 84. Yeah long range NAM ya da ya da, it nailed the last shortwave. GFS looks similar with that strip of precip over NGA into WNC. This feature has been shown on almost all models at some point in time over the past 3-4 days and you have to use those little hints. Let’s see today if that strip continues to expand and last for more frames. Also 0z EPS with a nice uptick in snow totals for WNC.

I hope your correct, maybe our best set-up this season and as usual its trying its best to turn in to nothing, boy threading the needle isn't the word for it. 

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7 minutes ago, Hvward said:

12z nam still has the strip of precip over WNC. Small details though are going to be huge with this system.

Yeah nothing to worry about.  Today will be some fluctuations but I fully expect the precipitation field to move north.

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12 minutes ago, Hvward said:

12z nam still has the strip of precip over WNC. Small details though are going to be huge with this system.

I am going to heed your own advice from yesterday: Models tend to under-do that northern periphery of moisture and its extent.

We've been here and time and time again and more times than not will the precipitation field trend further north than is currently being shown.

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11 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Yeah nothing to worry about.  Today will be some fluctuations but I fully expect the precipitation field to move north.

Yeah it seems like these systems are always juicer when they get here let’s hope that holds true for this one.

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I am going to heed your own advice from yesterday: Models tend to under-do that northern periphery of moisture and its extent.
We've been here and time and time again and more times than not will the precipitation field trend further north than is currently being shown.


Yeah I hate to sound clichè but this is going to be one where we will have to see how that precip is blossoming on Wednesday evening and into Thursday. If it’s sets up over N AL and moves to N GA we should be in business. Not a lot to compare this one to with that large expansive high. Usually we don’t have that to work with or one to that extent.
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I'm just gonna wait til tomorrow to even think theres a chance of flurries this week. Still waiting for it to somehow be 5 inches of rain lol.

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4 minutes ago, Hvward said:

 


Yeah I hate to sound clichè but this is going to be one where we will have to see how that precip is blossoming on Wednesday evening and into Thursday. If it’s sets up over N AL and moves to N GA we should be in business. Not a lot to compare this one to with that large expansive high. Usually we don’t have that to work with or one to that extent.

 

Yeah and the crazy thing is that all the indicies are in the wrong direction. 

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GFS is essentialy some flurries. But the tilt is a little more SW/NW based compared to 6z, and the storm is a tad stronger at 84 and ever so slightly north.

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15z SREF plumes have 5 members between an inch and 3 inches of snow in Boone up to 0z on the 21st.... Compare to 9z earlier which had 1 member.

 

 

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