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September Weather Discussion 2019


dryslot
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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro op is a -NAO heat blocker.

Running through the temp anomalies, the latest GFS and EURO seem to have the greatest warmth relative to normal in the Ohio Valley.  There are cool shots mixed in up here in the northern tier, or at least some below normal SFC-850 temps mixed in with the above normal stuff.  

Seems like we’ll be right on the edge of a true prolonged torch that will happen to the S/SW of us.

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It did Forky' ...but it's been doing this all summer, and then the "big heat" - relative term post August 25th or so... -  never materializes.  It's been annoying actually - it's like the antithesis of the D8 permanent historic bomb fixture of the old Euro wagon days, only in the summer with heat domes.   

But it's complicated, because the models are not seeing the penetration/re-establishment of the Maritime trough/blocking at times, and when they slip that they paint these whopper hot signals... BUT, then, "OVER" correct the other way when they latch back on...   

So it's more like relative error in that sense ? 

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39 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That would be hilarious if the D8-10 verified after all the torch talk.

 

 

I just think persistence is the way to go here - and by that, I don't necessarily mean the dailies so much as I mean that by 'pattern concept' 

The idea of ridges bloomin' away in extendeds getting corrected by ablation/troughing plumbing S through the Maritimes ( albeit down stream -NAO attributed or not...) hasn't shown any signs of stopping - until it does, all big warm ups are heretofore auto-suspect until further notice ...heh.  

...and by 'big warm ups' I mean these three and four day stints at +15 to +20 a pop...   nah, sorry folks - if you're a warm weather enthusiasts, this model's been been a COC-tease all year and it's still trying to goad you.   ahaha

That said, we may end up 'above average' ...but standard seasonal stuff..

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33 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

 If we end up warm so be it, but I’m all kind of done with summer’s leftover heat hangover breath. Grab a tube of Crest and rinse with Listerine.

I'm fine with +10 days. I'll do without historic 2007-esque 90F highs but 77-83 doesn't bother me a lick this time of the year. I'm actually rooting for slightly warmer. I have zero use for this crap that we saw the past 24 hours with a high of 60-61 and lows of 38. It felt like October but I don't actually prefer it over 70s or even low 80s as long as it's relatively dry.

The novelty of the first freeze will interest me but that is about it. Getting rid of the bugs with a hard freeze is a bonus too but then given me 70F days and 47F nights through Halloween. 

We can flip the switch in November. 

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm fine with +10 days. I'll do without historic 2007-esque 90F highs but 77-83 doesn't bother me a lick this time of the year. I'm actually rooting for slightly warmer. I have zero use for this crap that we saw the past 24 hours with a high of 60-61 and lows of 38. It felt like October but I don't actually prefer it over 70s or even low 80s as long as it's relatively dry.

The novelty of the first freeze will interest me but that is about it. Getting rid of the bugs with a hard freeze is a bonus too but then given me 70F days and 47F nights through Halloween. 

We can flip the switch in November. 

48F rainy days vs 74F and sunny.... 

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10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I can’t believe the amount of fall color already. This is earliest widespread change I’ve ever seen here 

Early here too. I know everyone loves it, but my 6” soil temp hit 57° this morning. We didn’t hit that until October 13th last year.

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Seems like every sugar maple around here is showing at least some color already. The stressed ones are already near peak. It's definitely early. The rainy June/July and all that sun with cooler temps in August (esp last week of August) and early September prob was ideal for getting some early color started. 

You typically want a wet early and mid summer and then start ramping up the sunlight late summer and autumn with some colder nights mixed in to enhance the sugar production. Cool nights but no freezes are ideal. Kind of like what we have had pretty frequently the past couple weeks. 

 

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38 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm fine with +10 days. I'll do without historic 2007-esque 90F highs but 77-83 doesn't bother me a lick this time of the year. I'm actually rooting for slightly warmer. I have zero use for this crap that we saw the past 24 hours with a high of 60-61 and lows of 38. It felt like October but I don't actually prefer it over 70s or even low 80s as long as it's relatively dry.

The novelty of the first freeze will interest me but that is about it. Getting rid of the bugs with a hard freeze is a bonus too but then given me 70F days and 47F nights through Halloween. 

We can flip the switch in November. 

80 and low dews are great, but days of 80s just get to be overkill. I hate to sound like you know who, but seasons in seasons. I don't expect October snow, but adios mid 80s. See ya in May hopefully. That's more or less my feelings. Of course Mother Nature could care less. 

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

80 and low dews are great, but days of 80s just get to be overkill. I hate to sound like you know who, but seasons in seasons. I don't expect October snow, but adios mid 80s. See ya in May hopefully. That's more or less my feelings. Of course Mother Nature could care less. 

Maybe I'm just less afraid of the warm patterns because I feel like they rarely actually produce 80s after late September. They end up verifying as a lot of 70s which is fine. Ok maybe the BDL tarmac gets 80s. 

Even the epic October 2017 hit 80F exactly one time at BOS. Zero times at ORH. Just a ton of 72/52 type days. 

This weekend breeches 80F but then I'm not convinced we see it again until spring. 

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26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

80 and low dews are great, but days of 80s just get to be overkill. I hate to sound like you know who, but seasons in seasons. I don't expect October snow, but adios mid 80s. See ya in May hopefully. That's more or less my feelings. Of course Mother Nature could care less. 

lol... less than 2 weeks ago it was “glad we don’t live up north where it’s cool...we torch and we beach.”  

I’m sure the beaches are even better in September with less people.  

I do think School season starting for many is the true mental switch flip.  Even though nothing else changed, it’s like heat and beach one day and then a couple days later its time for highs in the 50s and pumpkin lattes the next day.

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8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Columbus Day 2011. That was about as bad as Christmas 2015. 

A day in the 80s in early October as bad as sunny 60s on Christmas?

I remember a day in mid October 1995. I was home sick from school and remember walking out onto the deck in the afternoon to a blowtorch upper 80s. Felt great.

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22 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

lol... less than 2 weeks ago it was “glad we don’t live up north where it’s cool...we torch and we beach.”  

I’m sure the beaches are even better in September with less people.  

I do think School season starting for many is the true mental switch flip.  Even though nothing else changed, it’s like heat and beach one day and then a couple days later its time for highs in the 50s and pumpkin lattes the next day.

I’m trying to convince my son to hit some RI beaches this month. He is not really into the beach but he is a 20 minute Uber from Newport or Narragansett.   So jealous

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43 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

lol... less than 2 weeks ago it was “glad we don’t live up north where it’s cool...we torch and we beach.”  

I’m sure the beaches are even better in September with less people.  

I do think School season starting for many is the true mental switch flip.  Even though nothing else changed, it’s like heat and beach one day and then a couple days later its time for highs in the 50s and pumpkin lattes the next day.

I’m done come October. All set. Summer was great and couldn’t have been better for outdoor stuff around here. Now it’s school, soccer, and house projects. It’s just personal preference. Climo is still mild and even more milder over the last 15 years or so. Just my preference. 

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Color is kind of muted I think. It is coming out, but should green up by Sunday.

lol, Just let it go, No need to do a DIT then come back in full Fall/Winter mode as a snowflake, It can be a gradual transition, I understand you don't want to let go, Some fall into this trap of false sense, But you will be better off on the other side.   :lol:

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