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Tim from Springfield (IL)

May 16-21 Severe Threats

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN  
732 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2019  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  NORTHEASTERN SHELBY COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...  
  NORTHERN RUSH COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...  
  
* UNTIL 800 PM EDT.  
      
* AT 732 PM EDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO  
  WAS LOCATED NEAR SHELBYVILLE, MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...TORNADO.  
  
  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
  
  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT   
           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.   
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE   
           DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
  
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  
  ARLINGTON AROUND 745 PM EDT.  
  RUSHVILLE AROUND 750 PM EDT.  
  MAYS AROUND 755 PM EDT.  

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Nothing here but a few tree limbs down up this way as the line passed through. Caught a shot of the shelf cloud as it passed overhead.

 

IMG_0902.jpg

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New day 2 has enhanced area for a good chunk of MO.

Quote

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1239 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2019  
 
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z  

 
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF  
MO...NORTHERN AR...AND FAR WEST-CENTRAL IL...  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE  
POSSIBLE FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTH INTO THE ARKLATEX  
ON TUESDAY.  
   
..SYNOPSIS
 
 
MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY MORNING IS  
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY, REACHING THE  
NORTHERN PLAINS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. STRONG SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY  
FLOW ALOFT THROUGHOUT THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONE WILL  
SPREAD FROM THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE  
UPPER/MID MS VALLEY. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MID-LATITUDE  
CYCLONE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE  
OCCLUDING. THIS OCCLUSION PROCESS WILL RESULT IN EVENTUAL  
DISPLACEMENT BETWEEN THE WARM SECTOR (OVER THE MID MS VALLEY) AND  
THE SURFACE LOW (OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS) AFTER 21Z.  
   
..LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEYS INTO THE ARKLATEX
 
 
EXPANSIVE CONVECTIVE LINE WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF  
THE PERIOD FROM KS THROUGH NORTH TX. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO  
CONTINUE PROGRESSING EASTWARD/NORTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY,  
MOVING THROUGH AR, MO, AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL IL. KINEMATIC FIELDS  
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS  
ARE IMPRESSIVE, WITH 80 KT OF SOUTHERLY 500 MB FLOW ATOP SOUTHERLY  
850 MB FLOW OF 40-50 KT EXPECTED ACROSS MO BY 21Z. THE RESULT IS  
VERY LONG HODOGRAPHS AND STRONG DEEP LAYER (I.E. 0-6 KM) SHEAR  
AROUND 60-70 KT. A WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD  
ACROSS MO TUESDAY MORNING, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S  
ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF THE LINE AS IT MOVES INTO MO AND AR DURING THE  
EARLY AFTERNOON. ALSO, THE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE  
PARENT CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CATCH UP TO THE PRECEDING CONVECTIVE  
LINE.  
 
ALL OF THESE FACTORS SUGGEST A REINTENSIFICATION OF THE LINE IS  
LIKELY, WITH SOME INCREASED FORWARD PROPAGATION ANTICIPATED.  
CONSEQUENTLY, HIGHER COVERAGE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IS POSSIBLE AND  
A 30% PROBABILITY AREA HAS BEEN ADDED FROM NORTHERN MO/FAR  
WEST-CENTRAL IL SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN AR. MESOVORTICES/QLCS  
TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS WHERE THE  
CONVECTIVE LINE SURGES FORWARD.  
   
 
   
..MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD
 
 
TORNADO: 5% - SLIGHT  
WIND: 30% - ENHANCED  
HAIL: 15% - SLIGHT  
 
..MOSIER.. 05/20/2019

 

swody2_categorical.png

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Not in our subforum, but here's something you don't see every day. I may do some virtual chasing later.

high risk2.gif

high risk.gif

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Not in our subforum, but here's something you don't see every day. I may do some virtual chasing later.
814035309_highrisk2.thumb.gif.2fd19024b69dcc33e335665209785038.gif
725726665_highrisk.thumb.gif.af65ec282466134eeceb665383248b33.gif

Heard on the radio that some schools are closed in Oklahoma
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Heard on the radio that some schools are closed in Oklahoma


I also saw this, OKC district public schools are all closed today. They made the call around 4pm yesterday after consultation with their wfo. In no way am I second guessing their decision - but I can’t help but marvel at it, I’ve simply never heard of or even thought of a pre emptive school closing for tor threat.

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13 minutes ago, luckyweather said:

 


I also saw this, OKC district public schools are all closed today. They made the call around 4pm yesterday after consultation with their wfo. In no way am I second guessing their decision - but I can’t help but marvel at it, I’ve simply never heard of or even thought of a pre emptive school closing for tor threat.

 

Don't ask me when but I know they have done it in the South, though maybe not so many hours in advance. 

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STL area might get interesting later..notice they mention the warm air at 700mb... now .watch the opposite happen with bad luck (hope not)

AY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK    
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0748 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2019  
  
VALID 211300Z - 221200Z  
  
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS  
OF MISSOURI...WESTERN ILLINOIS AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN ARKANSAS...  
   
..SUMMARY  
  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY FROM MISSOURI AND  
WESTERN ILLINOIS TO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ARKLATEX  
REGIONS.  DAMAGING GUSTS, LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES MAY OCCUR.  
   
..SYNOPSIS  
  
THE LARGE-SCALE/UPPER-AIR PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY MEAN  
TROUGHING FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS TO  
NORTHERN MX.  TWO EMBEDDED MID/UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONES WILL AFFECT THIS  
REGIME, THE FIRST NOW CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES NEAR THE  
CO/NM LINE.  THIS LEADING LOW SHOULD EJECT EASTWARD THEN NORTHWARD  
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS, IN A CURVING PATTERN.  MEANWHILE ANOTHER  
LOW -- APPARENT IN MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY WEST OF THE OR  
COASTLINE, WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SIERRA AND NEARBY PARTS  
OF CA/NV.  BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, A BROAD, SOMEWHAT DUMBBELL-  
SHAPED CYCLONE WITH FUJIWHARA VORTEX-INTERACTION CHARACTERISTICS  
SHOULD EVOLVE AROUND THOSE TWO MAJOR/EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS, AND  
EXTEND FROM CA TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  A PRONOUNCED RIDGE  
WILL EXTEND FROM A HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT  
LAKES.  
  
AT THE SURFACE, 11Z ANALYSIS SHOWED A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE,  
DIFFUSED BY OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST,  
AND COVERING NORTHWEST OK, THE NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE AND  
SOUTHWESTERN KS.  THIS SHOULD CONSOLIDATE INTO A BETTER-DEFINED  
CYCLONE THROUGH THE DAY WHILE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL KS TO  
SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN NE.  MEANWHILE A BLENDED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY  
AND WARM FRONTAL ZONE WAS ANALYZED ACROSS NORTHERN AR INTO  
NORTHEASTERN OK, WITH A COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN OK AND WEST-CENTRAL  
TX.  THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CATCH UP TO A PREFRONTAL CONVECTIVE  
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE PERIOD OVER EASTERN OK TO CENTRAL TX.   
MEANWHILE THE WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW ZONE SHOULD SHIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH  
THE OZARKS AND MO, REACHING PORTIONS OF IA/IL BY THE END OF THE  
PERIOD.  
   
..MO/IL TO ARKLATEX  
  
A QLCS WITH PERIODIC/EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS AND BOOKEND VORTICES,  
WITH A HISTORY OF QUICK-SPINUP TORNADIC/TDS ACTIVITY IN  
CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN OK, SHOULD PROCEED ACROSS PORTIONS OF  
EAST-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST OK THROUGH THE MORNING, EITHER SIDE OF A  
MODIFYING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION.  REFER TO SPC  
WATCH 205 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NEAR-TERM DETAILS.  
  
THE SAME COMPLEX, OR A REDEVELOPED VERSION, IS EXPECTED TO POSE AN  
EXPANDING SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE OZARKS, WITH SOME  
BACKBUILDING OR RE-STRENGTHENING POSSIBLE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE  
RICH RESERVOIR OF NEAR-SURFACE MOISTURE OVER EAST TX.  THIS SHOULD  
OCCUR AS A COMBINATION OF WARM ADVECTION AND DIABATIC SURFACE  
HEATING CONTRIBUTES TO DESTABILIZATION ALL ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR,  
INCLUDING AIR-MASS RECOVERY IN AREAS OF MO PREVIOUSLY COVERED BY  
STABILIZING OUTFLOW SAMPLED WELL BY 12Z SGF SOUNDING.  FORECAST  
SOUNDINGS AND PLANAR PROGS REASONABLY SUGGEST A SOUTHWARD INCREASE  
IN MLCAPE, FROM THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE OVER PARTS OF MO TO OVER  
2000 J/KG IN EAST TX (WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL FORCING WILL BE WEAKER,  
HENCE MORE-CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT).  
  
THE PRESENCE OF A STABLE LAYER NEAR 700 MB APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO  
THE NORTHEASTERN FRINGE OF A RESIDUAL EML ADVECTED FROM THE MEXICAN  
PLATEAU AND OBSERVED IN PRIOR SOUNDINGS.  THIS FEATURE ALOFT,  
SIMILARLY TO YESTERDAY OVER THE OK/TX WARM SECTOR, MAY RESTRICT  
DEVELOPMENT OF DISCRETE CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE CORRIDOR OF GREATEST  
FORCING -
- IN THIS CASE THE OUTFLOW-REINFORCED EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT.  
 AS THE LEADING/ROCKIES CYCLONE AND TRAILING TROUGH PIVOT ACROSS THE  
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS, MID/UPPER WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THIS  
REGION, BOOSTING DEEP SHEAR, WHILE THE PASS RESPONSE MAINTAINS OR  
INCREASES LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.  AS SUCH, THE PARAMETER SPACE WILL FAVOR  
BOTH DAMAGING GUSTS (SOME SEVERE), AND OCCASIONAL TORNADOES.   
TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY BE RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED NEAR RESIDUAL OUTFLOW  
BOUNDARIES AND THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE.  SEVERE POTENTIAL OVERALL  
SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE CYCLONE EJECTS/OCCLUDES AND THE  
NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES IN THE WARM SECTOR.  

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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK    
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1110 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2019  
  
VALID 211630Z - 221200Z  
  
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF  
WESTERN ILLINOIS...MUCH OF MISSOURI...AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS...  
   
..SUMMARY  
  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY FROM MISSOURI AND  
WESTERN ILLINOIS TO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ARKLATEX  
REGIONS.  DAMAGING GUSTS, LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES MAY OCCUR.  
   
..AR/MO/IL  
  
A SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN  
MO AND EASTERN OK THIS MORNING.  THIS LINE HAS BEEN IN A LULL OF  
INTENSITY, LIKELY TIED TO LINGERING DIURNAL STABILIZATION.  HOWEVER,  
IT IS LIKELY TO REJUVENATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON, POSING AN INCREASING  
RISK OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND TRANSIENT QLCS TORNADOES.   
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF THE LINE SHOW VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR  
AND RAPID LOW-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION AS A VERY MOIST AIR MASS OVER AR  
SPREADS INTO SOUTHEAST MO.  THIS TREND INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR  
MORE WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE BY LATE AFTERNOON.  ANY DISCRETE CELLS  
THAT CAN FORM AHEAD OF THE LINE WOULD ALSO POSE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL  
AND TORNADOES.  
   
..KS  
  
IN THE WAKE OF THE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SPREADING INTO THE MID MS  
VALLEY, CLEARING IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP INTO PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KS.  
BY LATE AFTERNOON, STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE CAPE  
WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS.  LARGE HAIL  
APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.  HOWEVER, SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL CAPE  
AND FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL PROMOTE A FEW SUPERCELLS AND  
PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD INTO EASTERN KS  
AND PERHAPS NORTHWEST MO BEFORE DIMINISHING TONIGHT.  

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO  
106 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2019  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  NORTHWESTERN WEBSTER COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI...  
  SOUTHWESTERN DALLAS COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI...  
  NORTHEASTERN GREENE COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI...  
  
* UNTIL 130 PM CDT.  
      
* AT 106 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO  
  WAS LOCATED NEAR FAIR GROVE, OR NEAR STRAFFORD, MOVING NORTHEAST AT  
  45 MPH.  

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Confirmed tornadoes so far near Edgar Spring, MO and just recently Rhineland, MO. 

New broad circulation near Sullivan, MO headed right up I-44 towards St. Louis Metro.

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Confirmed large, very dangerous tornado with a huge debris ball near Augusta, straddling the St. Louis/St. Charles County lines, and it's headed directly at the NWS office in Weldon Spring. 

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Just now, Calderon said:

Confirmed large, very dangerous tornado with a huge debris ball near Augusta, straddling the St. Louis/St. Charles County lines, and it's headed directly at the NWS office in Weldon Spring. 

GTG shear is insane 

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This tornado absolutely bombed out so fast and may a very hard hook to the north, now fully within St. Charles County. 

NWS St. Louis is currently handing over to Kansas City to take cover.

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4 minutes ago, Calderon said:

Confirmed large, very dangerous tornado with a huge debris ball near Augusta, straddling the St. Louis/St. Charles County lines, and it's headed directly at the NWS office in Weldon Spring. 

Is that in a warning update/severe weather statement because the last one I have from them is from 4:58 pm.  Maybe just a problem on my end.

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Just now, Hoosier said:

Is that in a warning update/severe weather statement because the last one I have from them is from 4:58 pm.  Maybe just a problem on my end.

 

Screenshot_2019-05-21-19-13-13.png

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Just now, Calderon said:

The circulation looks to have completely fallen apart very rapidly as it is moving into Weldon Spring right now. 

Thankfully.  That was a really close call.  Looks to have been a very intense tornado for a few minutes there.

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9 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Is that in a warning update/severe weather statement because the last one I have from them is from 4:58 pm.  Maybe just a problem on my end.

I'm watching KSDK and the weather channel and they're saying it's on the ground.  Confirmed over Weldon Spring as of 6:19 Central time.

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2 minutes ago, Calderon said:

The circulation looks to have completely fallen apart very rapidly as it is moving into Weldon Spring right now. 

It's moving right on top of the radar sight

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5 minutes ago, jpeters3 said:

That was one heck of a QLCS tornado.  Produced a massive debris ball.

Screenshot_20190521-161414_RadarScope.jpg

I think it was a semi embedded supercell for a bit..had a huge hail spike right before it dropped

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