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Don't mean to be late to the party, but another MD for IA/N IL for late tonight.  60% watch issuance likely.

As discussed on the main short-term severe thread, Day 1 of the active pattern which includes marginals for parts of the subforum tonight and Saturday (plus Slight in IA Sat), and D4 (Sun) & D6 (Tue) risks already posted for parts of the sub too.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0643.html

Mesoscale Discussion 0643
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0714 PM CDT Thu May 16 2019

   Areas affected...Southern and Eastern Iowa...Northern Illinois

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 170014Z - 170215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat is likely to continue developing
   across parts of southern and eastern Iowa eastward into northern
   Illinois. Wind damage and hail will be the primary threats. Weather
   watch issuance may be needed especially as uncertainty concerning
   convective coverage decreases.

   DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis has a cold front from
   eastern Nebraska extending eastward across central Iowa into
   northern Illinois. An axis of maximized low-level moisture and
   enhanced convergence near an outflow boundary exists across northern
   Illinois where convective initiation has occurred in the last hour.
   Storm development in this area should remain relatively isolated,
   moving southeastward across north-central Illinois over the next
   hour or two. A wind damage and hail threat will be possible with
   this convection.

   Further to the west, An axis of moderate instability is analyzed
   across southern and eastern Iowa. The RAP is estimating MLCAPE
   values in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range and shows 0-3 km lapse rates
   exceeding 8.0 C/km along this corridor. As a capping inversion
   decreases and low-level convergence becomes enhanced along the
   front, cell initiation is expected to occur. The latest short-term
   guidance suggests that scattered surface-based initiation will take
   place by 01Z to 02Z. In addition to the instability, the WSR-88D VWP
   at Davenport, Iowa shows 0-6 km shear near 35 kt suggesting that a
   severe threat may develop as cells increase in coverage. Wind damage
   and hail will likely be the primary threats.

   ..Broyles/Guyer.. 05/17/2019

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Thanks for starting a dedicated thread for this episode, Tim.  Now through mid week at least looks to be the most active we've seen in the Midwest for quite some time.

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Probably a good thing I haven’t watered flowers, etc.  If everything in Indiana continues to develop and move SE towards Columbus heavy rain probably a decent bet.  

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4 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Never mind, got messy pretty quickly lol.

There still some good rotation on radarscope. Its pretty close to the radar.  Last few visible shots of this line showed some really strong updrafts with overshooting tops.

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Looks like a left split on that Dewitt cell too.   Look how the severe cells are slowing moving eastward to the western Chicago burbs.  The stabilizing effects of today's MCS must be lessening.

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3 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

A nasty-looking cell with hail cores is about to hit Cyclone.

This has been some of the best lightning I've seen around here.  The whole sky filled with lightning at pretty much all times.  Lots of bolts shooting across the sky.

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Uh...yeah...we had a little hail storm here tonight. Seeing the damage in the light of day is going to be ugly.

60280762_2471219686251039_7066244726986375168_n.jpg

US 24 and St Rd 5 North side of Huntington.jpg

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Uh...yeah...we had a little hail storm here tonight. Seeing the damage in the light of day is going to be ugly.
60280762_2471219686251039_7066244726986375168_n.thumb.jpg.af96dc216f044563eb3d0313670bd883.jpg
573801914_US24andStRd5NorthsideofHuntington.thumb.jpg.f02e0800aaa44760d25bfe0647566ad9.jpg

Wow. That had to be a wild experience

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Just now, King James said:


Wow. That had to be a wild experience

Yep. A couple more for good measure:

Lancaster.JPG

US 24 and 200 E.jpeg

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22 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

Uh...yeah...we had a little hail storm here tonight. Seeing the damage in the light of day is going to be ugly.

60280762_2471219686251039_7066244726986375168_n.jpg

US 24 and St Rd 5 North side of Huntington.jpg

Oh wow! Sorry about the car. 

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1 hour ago, cyclone77 said:

This has been some of the best lightning I've seen around here.  The whole sky filled with lightning at pretty much all times.  Lots of bolts shooting across the sky.

Prolific lightning with the stuff coming in here.  Can't even count 1 second between flashes. 

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28 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

Uh...yeah...we had a little hail storm here tonight. Seeing the damage in the light of day is going to be ugly.

60280762_2471219686251039_7066244726986375168_n.jpg

US 24 and St Rd 5 North side of Huntington.jpg

Yikes

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5 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

I was wondering how large and extensive the hail was up your way Butch as I looked at those purple returns on radar.

 

3 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

Oh wow! Sorry about the car. 

Fortunate for me, it was a friend's car. My cars are in the garage.  However my take-home Emergency Management Tahoe may not have fared so well. No broken windows, but had to abort my chase under a gas station awning. It probably has some dimples. Quarters to occasional golf balls in my location, but the pictures show what hit in a couple of other parts of town.

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1 minute ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

A big hail producing monster is just to my south. If it continues on it’s current track, the hail core may moss be by a mile or two. 

That thing is easily producing 2” hail I’m sure. Good thing it’s just south of a more populated area or there’d be some costly damage. 

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11 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said:

That thing is easily producing 2” hail I’m sure. Good thing it’s just south of a more populated area or there’d be some costly damage. 

Caught the edge of the core and got about a minute of half dollar to golf ball size stones. Bunch of them scattered around the yard and deck. 

Absolutely prolific lightning 

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DVN sounding from earlier this evening shows some very nice mid-level lapse rates.  Steep low-level lapse rates as well for anything surface based to gust out some powerful winds.  Saw that in a few locations later in the eve as storms became a bit more surface based.  The SPC sounding makes the cap look almost non-existent, but it was surely more potent than what's displayed on their graphics.  If you look at the same sounding displayed from COD the cap is much more pronounced, and was likely more accurate.  This likely cut down on the overall wind/tor potential.

28c1s9w.jpg

e7ba4y.jpg

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3 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

If this DeKalb county storm can maintain this hail on its current track, it is going to wreck the southern half of the metro. 

Yes, it will be similar to what Dallas/Fort Worth experiences on occasion.   Very concerning.

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There is another decent hail producer on the southeast side of Chicago moving out over the lake, though not as big as the one farther west. 

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Just now, Hoosier said:

There is another decent hail producer on the southeast side of Chicago, though not as big as the one farther west. 

Just warned for you.

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7 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

Just warned for you.

Core is missing safely north.  Whiting/Gary area probably got some hail.

I wonder if that big boy out west will stay on the current heading or try to nudge south. 

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4 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Core is missing safely north.  Whiting/Gary area probably got some hail.

I wonder if that big boy out west will stay on the current heading or try to nudge south. 

That's my concern and why I am staying up so late tonight in addition to wanting to see the new day one for the plains and how far south these Midwest storms might travel before retreating north.  Lots of wind damage in the Indy metro area from the MCS that went through between 5 and 6 p.m. EDT this evening.  Fared ok here locally.  My cousin's family has vehicles both inside and outside their garage in Highland.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
1206 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1202 AM     HAIL             2 SE KANEVILLE          41.82N 88.49W
05/17/2019  M2.50 INCH       KANE               IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MEASURED 2.25 INCH DIAMETER HAIL, LOTS OF
            GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL.

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I'm surprised new  svr storms keep popping up around Lee County Il and the Quad Cities.  I would have assumed the atmosphere would have been worked over already.

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