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Quincy

Mid to Late May 2019 Severe Threats

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These seemingly all fall apart this season the closer in they become. Today looks like maybe a few low end type tornadoes in W KS and plains of Nebraska.
It's not just this season it happens multiple times every year. A big difference with this particular system is we had fairly good agreement between models, analogs, etc and that stayed that way for several days. A lot of folks myself included took the bait. I am usually a 3 days out guy but the bait was just too good.

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4 minutes ago, OUGrad05 said:

It's not just this season it happens multiple times every year. A big difference with this particular system is we had fairly good agreement between models, analogs, etc and that stayed that way for several days. A lot of folks myself included took the bait. I am usually a 3 days out guy but the bait was just too good.
 

Maybe one of these days will have that sneaky big day come together, but like you said, not looking that way with newer modeling.

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25 minutes ago, OUGrad05 said:

Monday still holds potential to be high end but the details won't be clear until late Sunday or early Monday morning IMO.  

I'll believe it when I see it

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I'll believe it when I see it
Pretty much where I am. Convective overturning may be a problem as well as storm mode.

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Man that low level jet is CRANKING through the whole day over Oklahoma on Monday. If discrete cells go up in that environment, look out...

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The 12z model suite is trending toward less convective overturning across Oklahoma tomorrow morning, allowing for the atmosphere to at least partially recover by peak heating Saturday.

A consensus of model solutions bring a sub-1000mb low into northwestern Oklahoma between 21z SAT to 00z SUN. Ahead of a sharpening dryline, the SREF/NAM/HRRR all show mid to upper 60s dew-points recovering in central Oklahoma with dews around 70F in south-central Oklahoma by 00z.

Models also show less veering of the low-level jet, suggesting that wind profiles will remain favorable for supercells, assuming that early day convection is not overly abundant, in order to disrupt the kinematic fields. If there is a silver lining in a relative lack of convection overnight (NW Texas/western Oklahoma), it is that it could bode well for a more robust severe threat across the risk area tomorrow.

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Monday the SPC seems to favor a shot at re-development due to intense wind profiles. Very latest NAM wants to back off early initiation due to warmer 700 mb prog. That giveth and taketh. If a substantial short-wave ejects toward 00Z new storms could breach the cap. Dewpoints must stay at/above 68 I think or Monday is another dog.

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To recap the next several days with some recent model data...

Today: Severe storms are likely across the central High Plains, eastward across the central Plains this evening. A few other isolated storms can't be ruled out to the south, particularly over Southwest Texas.

Tomorrow: Severe storms seem probable in at least two regimes. The first will be with an MCS that could rejuvenate later in the day from Northeast Texas into the Arkansas/Missouri vicinity, or evolve into a broken line of storms. The second area will be in the wake of the MCS, assuming there is adequate recovery, from Oklahoma into parts of Kansas. This is still somewhat conditional, but odds appear to be increasing a bit for at least isolated storm development near/just west of I-35.

Sunday: Looks like a relatively quiet day as storm threats largely shift east of this sub-forum. For anyone out chasing, it may be a good day to relax and get ready for the coming week...

Monday: Not quite sure what to make of this day, just yet, as confidence is somewhat low. There does remain at least the potential for a significant event, particularly across the Southern Plains vicinity. Even if isolated storms aren't dominant, there should be some severe weather.

Tuesday: The severe threat will likely shift northeast toward the lower to mid-Missouri Valley.

Wednesday into next weekend: The synoptic pattern should remain favorable for steady bouts of severe thunderstorm activity around the central U.S. General ridging across the Southeast is modeled with favorable upper level flow continuing to eject from the Four Corners region, eastward across the Plains. It's not clear if there will be a higher-end severe threat, but at the very least, multiple severe storm days are likely, possibly with no single day that goes quietly. The operational 00z Euro shows another seasonably strong surface low ejecting from Colorado into the central Plains around late-week, but that could change.

It still looks like an at or above average stretch of severe thunderstorm activity across the Plains vicinity through the next 7-10 days.

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 Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1237 PM CDT Fri May 17 2019

   Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS
   OF  EAST TEXAS...EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
   OKLAHOMA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe storms are possible over a large area Saturday, from Texas to
   southern Minnessota, with greatest threat across central to
   northeast Texas, Oklahoma toward the Arklatex and Arkansas where
   large hail, damaging wind and a few tornadoes are possible.

   ...Synopsis...

   Upper trough now moving through the Great Basin region will continue
   east into the central and southern Plains Saturday and the mid MS
   Valley Saturday night. Early Saturday a cold front will extend from
   a surface low over southeast SD southwestward to a weaker surface
   low in northwest OK and this boundary will advance slowly southeast
   during the day. A dryline or pacific front will extend southward
   from this low through western TX. Warm front will stretch from the
   northern Plains low through the northern part of the OH Valley.

   ...Southern Plains through lower Mississippi Valley...

   Model consensus is that an MCS will be ongoing from west through
   northwest TX into a portion of central OK. This linear MCS will
   continue east through the destabilizing warm sector (1500-2000 J/kg
   MLCAPE) where increasing winds aloft associated with an approaching
   mid-level jet will contribute to sufficient vertical shear for
   embedded organized storms including bowing segments and supercells.
   The MCS has the potential to overturn a large part of the warm
   sector the first half of the day, and this raises considerable
   uncertainty regarding extent of upstream destabilization and
   thunderstorm redevelopment. Nevertheless, steep mid-level lapse
   rates will spread eastward through this region, and there will be
   some time for recovery during the afternoon as low-mid 60s F
   dewpoints advect northward through the pre-frontal warm sector,
   contributing to moderate to strong instability with 2500-3500 J/kg
   MLCAPE possible. Assuming there is sufficient time for recovery,
   additional storms may develop along dryline across western OK
   through northwest TX and northward along the cold front in KS. Very
   strong effective bulk shear (45-55 kt) will support supercells
   capable of very large hail, and a few tornadoes would also be
   possible. Have maintained the sig area for north TX through central
   OK into KS, and once uncertainties regarding impact of early MCS and
   subsequent upstream destabilization have been mitigated, an upgrade
   to higher probabilities may be needed in day 1 updates. 

   ...Central Plains through middle and upper Mississippi Valley...

   Thunderstorm are possible Saturday morning along the front extending
   from central KS into IA, and a few of these storms may be capable of
   hail. Additional surface-based thunderstorm activity is expected
   later in the day as forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching
   shortwave trough, diurnal destabilization and lift along the front
   all align to support convective initiation. Environment is
   supportive of strong, organized updrafts capable of large hail and
   strong wind gusts. Backed surface winds may also develop within the
   warm sector ahead of the front, contributing to some tornado risk
   with any discrete, warm-sector storms.

   ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
   Tornado:  10%     - Enhanced
   Wind:     30%     - Enhanced
   Hail:     30% SIG - Enhanced

   ..Dial.. 05/17/2019

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1 minute ago, yoda said:

New SPC Day 2 has extended the ENH risk NE to now include W AR/SE OK/ extreme SW MO

Interesting how the sig contour is entirely separate from the ENH risk 

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3 minutes ago, cheese007 said:

Interesting how the sig contour is entirely separate from the ENH risk 

Agree... sounds like everything will be turning on the MCS

 

day2probotlk_1730_any.gif.6e0a0312b654d820949851f32e26e1af.gif

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Just now, yoda said:

Agree... sounds like everything will be turning on the MCS

Feels like Lucy and the football tbh. 

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1 hour ago, yoda said:

Agree... sounds like everything will be turning on the MCS

 

day2probotlk_1730_any.gif.6e0a0312b654d820949851f32e26e1af.gif

Ehhh. More like airmass recovery.

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Tornado watch issued for nw KS and central Nebraska with cells moving up from Kansas.  I'm wondering if today's greatest threat might be a bit east/ne of where we were initially thinking per SPC current meso parameters.

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one curious thing, looking from the Hastings radar. you have one storm just departing the 88d near Goodland, and one moving on top of the LNX/LBF radar near Thedford. both getting direct hits within minutes of each other. good thing they're engineered well. would hate to see the areas west of US go low-level radar blind from both radars at once

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OUN and TSA pretty serious about Monday.

OUN AFD for Monday:
Model guidance is consistent in showing a very concerning synoptic scale pattern Monday, featuring a powerful upper level jet and  significant low level response. 850-mb flow is anomalously strong 
throughout the day and coincident with moderate to strong instability. Even with extensive warm advection convection early 
in the day, such a dramatic low-level response can result in rapid recovery and destabilization. The small scale details will 
determine how expansive and severe the threat is, but some of the more significant severe and tornado events have occurred with similar trough strength/geometry currently indicated in model guidance.

 

 

Tulsa AFD for Monday... 

Focus quickly shifts to Monday where significant severe weather is possible including heavy rainfall. Warm front will likely begin to lift north during the day. By late Monday afternoon, moderate to
high instability is expected to develop with strong/backed low level winds increasing across northeast Oklahoma as vigorous 
upper trough swings through New Mexico into the Texas panhandle. NAM forecast point soundings suggest the potential for scattered supercell development over northeast Oklahoma by late afternoon 
with the threat for a few strong tornadoes. Of course this is still a few days out, however persons still need to be prepared 
for the potential for significant severe weather Monday night afternoon/evening, especially if this involves outdoor activities

 

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14 minutes ago, ICEHOCEY77 said:

Cell NW of Atwood, KS starting to form a hook, weak couplet

I don't think it'll be long before that cell drops a tornado. 

Edit: Tornado warned

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