janetjanet998 Posted April 19, 2019 Share Posted April 19, 2019 EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 829 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2019 FLC039-073-077-129-191245- /O.CON.KTAE.TO.W.0057.000000T0000Z-190419T1245Z/ WAKULLA FL-GADSDEN FL-LIBERTY FL-LEON FL- 829 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2019 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 AM EDT FOR NORTHWESTERN WAKULLA...SOUTHERN GADSDEN...SOUTHEASTERN LIBERTY AND SOUTHWESTERN LEON COUNTIES... AT 829 AM EDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 20 MILES WEST OF CRAWFORDVILLE, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 80 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 19, 2019 Share Posted April 19, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted April 19, 2019 Share Posted April 19, 2019 One thing I noticed and I mentioned last night, is that this line has really slowed down. It's almost parked over the Atlanta area right now. That gives us more time to destabilize. As I mentioned before the sun is out here and as we all know it only takes about 15 minutes of April sun to cause major issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted April 19, 2019 Share Posted April 19, 2019 19 minutes ago, ryan1234 said: One thing I noticed and I mentioned last night, is that this line has really slowed down. It's almost parked over the Atlanta area right now. That gives us more time to destabilize. As I mentioned before the sun is out here and as we all know it only takes about 15 minutes of April sun to cause major issues. Yeah, my concern level is high. My daughter is supposed to fly into CLT at 3pm and I am driving down and back from the Triad to get her. So I think I'll get a good sample of everything up and down I85. It's not gonna be a good day. Warm and humid for an April morning here in the Triad. Conditions are ripe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted April 19, 2019 Share Posted April 19, 2019 Sun is trying to break out here in Mooresville... any sun today will only add fuel to the fire Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted April 19, 2019 Share Posted April 19, 2019 Just now, Amos83 said: Sun is trying to break out here in Mooresville... any sun today will only add fuel to the fire It's coming. I literally had a good half an hour of blue sky and sun. And it's still out as I am typing this. I definitely didn't expect that this morning and that's only going to shoot those CAPE values up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted April 19, 2019 Share Posted April 19, 2019 Current Surface Cape and Satellite imagery. Lots of breaks in there and that’s very concerning. I believe if the the CAPE can climb to 2000-2500 tornadoes will become a bigger threat. The sun is peaking through in the Piedmont of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted April 19, 2019 Share Posted April 19, 2019 Emily Byrd focusing on rotating storms on Fox8 already this morning. Not going to take much to turn this into a high impact tornado event. Ugh. Edit - TW Alamance County. Edit - TW Stokes County. Here we go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted April 19, 2019 Share Posted April 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: Emily Byrd focusing on rotating storms on Fox8 already this morning. Not going to take much to turn this into a high impact tornado event. Ugh. Edit - TW Alamance County. Edit - TW Stokes County. Here we go! I really am not liking this sun in the Southern Piedmont. And the fact that there seems to be a lull of any precip around Spartanburg, extending to the SC Midlands. Winds are gusting to around 20 as well. Very ominous indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldamon Posted April 19, 2019 Share Posted April 19, 2019 Can we please merge the two threads? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 19, 2019 Share Posted April 19, 2019 there are already TOR warmed storms ahead of the line in NC/va.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted April 19, 2019 Share Posted April 19, 2019 Cant find any significant ground reports under these TW storms and it appears they are just radar indicated at the moment. Lots of rotation with all these cells, but as conditions become more favorable (very soon), its going to get nasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 19, 2019 Share Posted April 19, 2019 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0399 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0906 AM CDT FRI APR 19 2019 AREAS AFFECTED...LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 191406Z - 191530Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH LATE MORNING. TORNADO WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED SOON TO ADDRESS THIS THREAT. DISCUSSION...LEADING EDGE OF STRONG LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS QUICKLY SPREADING ACROSS GA/FL PANHANDLE AHEAD OF A PRONOUNCED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. CONVECTION IS RESPONDING TO THIS FORCING AND IS EXPECTED TO GROW UPSCALE IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...LIKELY IN THE FORM OF AN ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE; ALTHOUGH, A FEW DISCRETE PRE-FRONTAL SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE. THIS SQUALL LINE SHOULD PROGRESS NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. FARTHER NORTH INTO SOUTHERN VA, SEVERAL SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS HAVE EVOLVED WITHIN A WARM ADVECTION ZONE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD ADVANCE NORTH THIS MORNING AS LLJ STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC. TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION, BUT REMAINS POSSIBLE WITHIN MORE ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldamon Posted April 19, 2019 Share Posted April 19, 2019 Any chance this initial burst of precipitation will help inoculate the areas under it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted April 19, 2019 Share Posted April 19, 2019 Watch coming soon. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2019/md0399.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted April 19, 2019 Share Posted April 19, 2019 9 minutes ago, aldamon said: Any chance this initial burst of precipitation will help inoculate the areas under it? I too was wondering that as well. I don't think it will, but I am merely an amateur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted April 19, 2019 Share Posted April 19, 2019 MODS - Can we lock one of these threads or merge them into one please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ragtop50 Posted April 19, 2019 Share Posted April 19, 2019 22 minutes ago, ryan1234 said: I too was wondering that as well. I don't think it will, but I am merely an amateur. I read somewhere that normally it could, but due to the dynamics and strength of this setup it would have little impact. If the sun comes out later after these storms pass as it did earlier towards Charlotte, I don't think it will matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted April 19, 2019 Share Posted April 19, 2019 One thing to watch is that line in FL. Not sure how likely it is, but it could affect what occurs farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted April 19, 2019 Share Posted April 19, 2019 RAH AFD updated for timing... Ahead of an approaching squall line this morning discrete cells will be likely with isolated tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail all possible. Between 2 PM and 6 PM the squall line will approach the Triad. Widespread damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will be possible in the squall line. An isolated strong to long track tornado can't be ruled out. Between 6 PM and 10 PM the squall line will be crossing the triangle. The squall line will then likely exit the eastern zones just before midnight tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted April 19, 2019 Share Posted April 19, 2019 NWS SPCVerified account @NWSSPC 29s30 seconds ago 9:55am CDT #SPC_MD 0400 , #ncwx #scwx, https://go.usa.gov/xmDeN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted April 19, 2019 Share Posted April 19, 2019 Looks like a pretty good break in the cloud cover between the squall line to the West and the cluster further East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsandhills Posted April 19, 2019 Share Posted April 19, 2019 In RTP, it's been raining steady since about 8:30-9AM. No sunshine to speak of. Hopefully that helps keep the super severe stuff away from us? Plenty to go on the radar, too: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted April 19, 2019 Share Posted April 19, 2019 1 minute ago, Solak said: NWS SPCVerified account @NWSSPC 29s30 seconds ago 9:55am CDT #SPC_MD 0400 , #ncwx #scwx, https://go.usa.gov/xmDeN Yeah was just watching the southern end of that line already some rotation forming... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted April 19, 2019 Share Posted April 19, 2019 Right now I got sunshine, but am now under a Tornado Watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted April 19, 2019 Share Posted April 19, 2019 Had a confirmed tornado in Franklin County, Va. Multiple structures damaged/destroyed and trees down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted April 19, 2019 Share Posted April 19, 2019 6 minutes ago, Solak said: RAH AFD updated for timing... Ahead of an approaching squall line this morning discrete cells will be likely with isolated tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail all possible. Between 2 PM and 6 PM the squall line will approach the Triad. Widespread damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will be possible in the squall line. An isolated strong to long track tornado can't be ruled out. Between 6 PM and 10 PM the squall line will be crossing the triangle. The squall line will then likely exit the eastern zones just before midnight tonight. ^ Isolated tornadoes seems like appropriate wording. Modest directional wind shear is a limiting factor for more and stronger tornadoes IMO, not to mention the current E NC rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted April 19, 2019 Share Posted April 19, 2019 The tornado probabilities on the most recent watches were lower than one would expect with the rather large 10% area. Certainly makes it look like the primary threat will be the squall line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Araqiel Posted April 19, 2019 Share Posted April 19, 2019 Couple of decent outflow boundaries over SC that have pushed ahead of the line; looks like there's a small east-west OFB from the sub-severe convection over eastern NC just north of the central-southern NC/SC border as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted April 19, 2019 Share Posted April 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, Dunkman said: The tornado probabilities on the most recent watches were lower than one would expect with the rather large 10% area. Certainly makes it look like the primary threat will be the squall line. Yeah, that really surprised me. I would have assumed that there would have been at least a high risk for tornadoes and a moderate risk for EF-2's+. Even within the squall line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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