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DanLarsen34

April 18, 19, 2019 Severe Event

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EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL  
829 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2019  
  
FLC039-073-077-129-191245-  
/O.CON.KTAE.TO.W.0057.000000T0000Z-190419T1245Z/  
WAKULLA FL-GADSDEN FL-LIBERTY FL-LEON FL-  
829 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2019  
  
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 AM EDT FOR  
NORTHWESTERN WAKULLA...SOUTHERN GADSDEN...SOUTHEASTERN LIBERTY AND  
SOUTHWESTERN LEON COUNTIES...  
          
AT 829 AM EDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 20 MILES WEST OF  
CRAWFORDVILLE, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 80 MPH.  
  
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.  
  
SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.  
  

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One thing I noticed and I mentioned last night, is that this line has really slowed down. It's almost parked over the Atlanta area right now. That gives us more time to destabilize. As I mentioned before the sun is out here and as we all know it only takes about 15 minutes of April sun to cause major issues. 

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19 minutes ago, ryan1234 said:

One thing I noticed and I mentioned last night, is that this line has really slowed down. It's almost parked over the Atlanta area right now. That gives us more time to destabilize. As I mentioned before the sun is out here and as we all know it only takes about 15 minutes of April sun to cause major issues. 

Yeah, my concern level is high.  My daughter is supposed to fly into CLT at 3pm and I am driving down and back from the Triad to get her.  So I think I'll get a good sample of everything up and down I85.   It's not gonna be a good day. 

Warm and humid for an April morning  here in the Triad.  Conditions are ripe.

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Just now, Amos83 said:

Sun is trying to break out here in Mooresville... any sun today will only add fuel to the fire

It's coming. I literally had a good half an hour of blue sky and sun. And it's still out as I am typing this. I definitely didn't expect that this morning and that's only going to shoot those CAPE values up. 

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Current Surface Cape and Satellite imagery. Lots of breaks in there and that’s very concerning. I believe if the the CAPE can climb to 2000-2500 tornadoes will become a bigger threat. The sun is peaking through in the Piedmont of NC. 

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Emily Byrd focusing on rotating storms on Fox8 already this morning.  Not going to take much to turn this into a high impact tornado event.  Ugh.

Edit - TW Alamance County.

Edit - TW Stokes County.

Here we go!

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3 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

Emily Byrd focusing on rotating storms on Fox8 already this morning.  Not going to take much to turn this into a high impact tornado event.  Ugh.

Edit - TW Alamance County.

Edit - TW Stokes County.

Here we go!

I really am not liking this sun in the Southern Piedmont. And the fact that there seems to be a lull of any precip around Spartanburg, extending to the SC Midlands. Winds are gusting to around 20 as well. Very ominous indeed. 

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Cant find any significant ground reports under these TW storms and it appears they are just radar indicated at the moment.  Lots of rotation with all these cells, but as conditions become more favorable (very soon), its going to get nasty.

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0399  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0906 AM CDT FRI APR 19 2019  
  
AREAS AFFECTED...LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS  
  
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY   
  
VALID 191406Z - 191530Z  
  
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT  
  
SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE LEE OF THE  
APPALACHIANS THROUGH LATE MORNING. TORNADO WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED  
SOON TO ADDRESS THIS THREAT.  
  
DISCUSSION...LEADING EDGE OF STRONG LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT  
IS QUICKLY SPREADING ACROSS GA/FL PANHANDLE AHEAD OF A PRONOUNCED  
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. CONVECTION IS RESPONDING TO THIS FORCING AND IS  
EXPECTED TO GROW UPSCALE IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN  
APPALACHIANS...LIKELY IN THE FORM OF AN ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE;  
ALTHOUGH, A FEW DISCRETE PRE-FRONTAL SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE. THIS  
SQUALL LINE SHOULD PROGRESS NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY.  
  
FARTHER NORTH INTO SOUTHERN VA, SEVERAL SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS HAVE  
EVOLVED WITHIN A WARM ADVECTION ZONE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD ADVANCE  
NORTH THIS MORNING AS LLJ STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDDLE  
ATLANTIC. TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST WITH ISOLATED  
CONVECTION, BUT REMAINS POSSIBLE WITHIN MORE ORGANIZED LINE  
SEGMENTS.  
  

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9 minutes ago, aldamon said:

Any chance this initial burst of precipitation will help inoculate the areas under it?

I too was wondering that as well. I don't think it will, but I am merely an amateur.

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22 minutes ago, ryan1234 said:

I too was wondering that as well. I don't think it will, but I am merely an amateur.

I read somewhere that normally it could, but due to the dynamics and strength of this setup it would have little impact.  If the sun comes out later after these storms pass as it did earlier towards Charlotte, I don't think it will matter.

 

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RAH AFD updated for timing...

Ahead of an approaching squall line this morning discrete cells
will be likely with isolated tornadoes, damaging winds, and 
hail all possible. Between 2 PM and 6 PM the squall line will 
approach the Triad. Widespread damaging winds and isolated 
tornadoes will be possible in the squall line. An isolated 
strong to long track tornado can't be ruled out. Between 6 PM 
and 10 PM the squall line will be crossing the triangle. The 
squall line will then likely exit the eastern zones just before 
midnight tonight.

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Looks like a pretty good break in the cloud cover between the squall line to the West and the cluster further East.

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In RTP, it's been raining steady since about 8:30-9AM. No sunshine to speak of. Hopefully that helps keep the super severe stuff away from us? Plenty to go on the radar, too:

image.png.a3586196d236df14a5e9314b8139c2de.png

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Had a confirmed tornado in Franklin County, Va. Multiple structures damaged/destroyed and trees down.

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6 minutes ago, Solak said:

RAH AFD updated for timing...

Ahead of an approaching squall line this morning discrete cells
will be likely with isolated tornadoes, damaging winds, and 
hail all possible. Between 2 PM and 6 PM the squall line will 
approach the Triad. Widespread damaging winds and isolated 
tornadoes will be possible in the squall line. An isolated 
strong to long track tornado can't be ruled out. Between 6 PM 
and 10 PM the squall line will be crossing the triangle. The 
squall line will then likely exit the eastern zones just before 
midnight tonight.

^ Isolated tornadoes seems like appropriate wording.  Modest directional wind shear is a limiting factor for more and stronger tornadoes IMO, not to mention the current E NC rain

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The tornado probabilities on the most recent watches were lower than one would expect with the rather large 10% area. Certainly makes it look like the primary threat will be the squall line.

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Couple of decent outflow boundaries over SC that have pushed ahead of the line; looks like there's a small east-west OFB from the sub-severe convection over eastern NC just north of the central-southern NC/SC border as well.

COD-GOES-East-subregional-Carolinas.truecolor.20190419.145119-over=map-bars=.gif

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3 minutes ago, Dunkman said:

The tornado probabilities on the most recent watches were lower than one would expect with the rather large 10% area. Certainly makes it look like the primary threat will be the squall line.

Yeah, that really surprised me. I would have assumed that there would have been at least a high risk for tornadoes and a moderate risk for EF-2's+. Even within the squall line. 

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