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DanLarsen34

April 18, 19, 2019 Severe Event

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1 hour ago, ryan1234 said:

It had speed up, the question is if the mesoscale features cause it to fluctuate in speed. I feel like it will.


.

And that makes things worse for us downstream of where it is at now... Because it will increase instabity .

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I think this will be a mega wind event if anything. NAM has been hammering the squall line for several runs now. Would not be surprised to see numerous power outages. 

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Looking at super res velocity mode you can see wind bows scattered about the main QLCS.  I’m not expecting widespread wind damage here but definitely there will be some areas that end up with them.  Speaking about western GA 

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16 minutes ago, SN_Lover said:

540's crashing and some ULL wrap around love could mean a April surprise for parts of the SE too..

 

nam3km_T850_seus_21.png

925s are torching down here but upper levels support snow later today. 

 

2019041818_CON_GFS_SFC_SLP_THK_RH_036.gi

 

temps here’s in ATL will be falling all day.  Pretty wild weather fo sho. 

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Everything about the HRRR for the last several runs has been just nasty for the Carolinas on Friday.  If the HRRR verifies, I can easily see the SPC go moderate for wind damage. 

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QLCS weakened considerably over the last few hours.  What came through here was eventful but not much to write about.  Better luck to you guys in SE GA and the Eastern Carolinas if you like severe.  It was a super under-performer in the slight risk area.  

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1 minute ago, LithiaWx said:

QLCS weakened considerably over the last few hours.  What came through here was eventful but not much to write about.  Better luck to you guys in SE GA and the Eastern Carolinas if you like severe.  It was a super under-performer in the slight risk area.  

We are in the dead of night and they are moving quicker, no surprise

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Just now, LithiaWx said:

QLCS weakened considerably over the last few hours.  What came through here was eventful but not much to write about.  Better luck to you guys in SE GA and the Eastern Carolinas if you like severe.  It was a super under-performer in the slight risk area.  

The Carolinas will likely get some help from the trough tilting negative on Friday. The dynamics are just sick over central/Eastern NC by 2pm.

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3 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

We are in the dead of night and they are moving quicker, no surprise

it was hyped up pretty decently.  Midnight isn’t exactly the dead of night either,  it’s not like it’s 5am.  Jmo,  hopefully for those who like severe things will crank up farther east into eastern NC tomorrow with some heat and less north to south orientation of the dynamics. 

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7 minutes ago, jjwxman said:

The Carolinas will likely get some help from the trough tilting negative on Friday. The dynamics are just sick over central/Eastern NC by 2pm.

Yeah if ever there was a setup for widespread straight line wind damage this is it....to add to that this last frame from the last HRRR run has a lot of small semi discrete cells right where you dont wanna see them...

HRRRMA_prec_radar_018.png.a8d95c3deab0b27d1c7447010d2239c7.png

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11 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Yeah if ever there was a setup for widespread straight line wind damage this is it....to add to that this last frame from the last HRRR run has a lot of small semi discrete cells right where you dont wanna see them...

HRRRMA_prec_radar_018.png.a8d95c3deab0b27d1c7447010d2239c7.png

Widspread straight line wind event hopefully is an overstatement.  I’m seeing wind damage as well but more being drawn down in the stronger cells as opposed to a derecho event.  I haven’t seen guidance showing a derecho but that doesn't mean it isn’t there either. 

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21 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Yeah if ever there was a setup for widespread straight line wind damage this is it....to add to that this last frame from the last HRRR run has a lot of small semi discrete cells right where you dont wanna see them...

HRRRMA_prec_radar_018.png.a8d95c3deab0b27d1c7447010d2239c7.png

One of those is parked right over my house in that image.... 50+mph winds?

 

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52 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

Widspread straight line wind event hopefully is an overstatement.  I’m seeing wind damage as well but more being drawn down in the stronger cells as opposed to a derecho event.  I haven’t seen guidance showing a derecho but that doesn't mean it isn’t there either. 

The LLJ is literally record setting over NC tomorrow for this time of the year especially the eastern half of the state with 925 winds 50-60 knts and 850's over 70-75 knts......a strong rain shower will mix that down so I think it is possible to see winds at least 40-50 along the line even where the storms are weakest...with plenty of 55-75 reports mixed in.

The latest HRRR is rough, semi discrete line with a following squall line....the timing sucks too would put it around 4-8pm on a Friday when it is crossing central/eastern NC.....

1560833545_HRRRMA_prec_radar_018(1).png.6ff4d1a9f409253a13b3fb2cdc9aee1f.png

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 86
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1230 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Southern Alabama
     Florida Panhandle
     Southwest Georgia
     Coastal Waters

   * Effective this Friday morning from 1230 AM until 800 AM CDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

   SUMMARY...A mixed mode of storms are expected to increase overnight
   and generally move northeastward across the region as overall
   conditions become more favorable for severe thunderstorms. This
   includes the potential for damaging winds along with tornadoes, one
   or two of which could be strong.

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28 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

The LLJ is literally record setting over NC tomorrow for this time of the year especially the eastern half of the state with 925 winds 50-60 knts and 850's over 70-75 knts......a strong rain shower will mix that down so I think it is possible to see winds at least 40-50 along the line even where the storms are weakest...with plenty of 55-75 reports mixed in.

The latest HRRR is rough, semi discrete line with a following squall line....the timing sucks too would put it around 4-8pm on a Friday when it is crossing central/eastern NC.....

1560833545_HRRRMA_prec_radar_018(1).png.6ff4d1a9f409253a13b3fb2cdc9aee1f.png

Where can records be found for these LLJ winds?

 

Wind is very hard to estimate but the line that came through here was whipping would not have been surprised if it was 40-45mph for a brief time. 

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3 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

And 15% tor. Kind shocked TBH. It's been a while since the last one in the region I think.

10% tor 

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The second round has been organizing itself for the last couple of hours and finally develops callable circulation right before it passes me by ... (in S Forsyth County)

 

We've had thunder and light rain for some time, now it's just much louder, much windier, and much heavier rain.

 

Quote

BULLETIN - EAS A REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
503 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

The National Weather Service in Peachtree City has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Southwestern Forsyth County in north central Georgia...
  Northwestern Gwinnett County in north central Georgia...
  Northeastern Fulton County in north central Georgia...

* Until 530 AM EDT.
    
* At 503 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located near Berkeley Lake, or 14 miles west of Lawrenceville,
  moving northeast at 30 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. 
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree 
           damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include...
  Sandy Springs, Roswell, Johns Creek, Alpharetta, Duluth, Sugar
  Hill, Suwanee, Buford, Norcross, Berkeley Lake, Buford Dam-Lake
  Lanier Parks and Brookwood.

 

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Dayum,  you guys in The Carolinas stay frosty. 

 

Thats a pretty large area of MOD risk out there.  Threat honed in a bit west of where it was before.  Was looking like central/Eastern NC now almost a bullseye in NC.  Not discounting SC or VA just wow. 

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I was within a mile of one of the tornadoes back in April of 2011.  I could hear it very well (loud roar) and found paperwork in my yard from a house that was 30 miles away.  Several homes were wiped off their fondation.  Hopefully nothing like that day materializes today.  I usually keep up with the weather but that day I was not, and had no clue what was going on.  My first clue that something bad was near was the changing wind direction as the storm progressed.

Moral of the story, keep an eye on things today, surprises can pop up fast.

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