ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: That's a real good look on the GFS for interior SNE. I would suspect QPF (or at least ratios) will be better through the ORH area than what is depicted verbatim. Yeah you actually beat me to it...but I was respondng the same thing to hubbdave...GFS is finally strong enough that it's shoving the good banding inland further and more intense. Not that it was terrible before (even though QPF was way lighter)....but this def steps it up a notch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The best banding actually is prob NW of them this run...though the GFS QPF won't depict that...it almost never does. It's a pretty good look even almost back to where you are...but def for like Ray to 495 and down into C CT. Will, which product shows the H85 inflow? That is what killed me last event....I need to consider that more moving forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah you actually beat me to it...but I was respondng the same thing to hubbdave...GFS is finally strong enough that it's shoving the good banding inland further and more intense. Not that it was terrible before (even though QPF was way lighter)....but this def steps it up a notch. I usually ballpark somewhere NW of the 850 lowest closed contour (like between that and the next contour) or right on the NW part lowest closed contour of the 700 mb low. Since we don't have 700 this time around, 850 shows in squarely over the SNE zone you mentioned. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The best banding actually is prob NW of them this run...though the GFS QPF won't depict that...it almost never does. It's a pretty good look even almost back to where you are...but def for like Ray to 495 and down into C CT. I’m still learning the nuances...heck, I’m still learning the plain as day stuff. At least a couple of good model bumps...hoping for meso help then the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Fast mover...limits the damage unfortunately As i said earlier 4" for me 6" for you. Maybe. There will surely be a glory band of +SN near you and hopefully you get in on it. Unless we trend further NW I am not expecting more than a few hours of moderate snow. 3-4" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: At least a couple of good model bumps...hoping for meso help then the Euro Same here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I’m still learning the nuances...heck, I’m still learning the plain as day stuff. At least a couple of good model bumps...hoping for meso help then the Euro I learn more every season....some years, like last year....the gaps in my knowledge don't get exposed, but this year undressed me like a nanna in pickles bedroom. Kind of like snowfall....it evens out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 That was a nice consolidated vortmax on the GFS, You would think the nam would have a better handle on convection but that seems not to be the case ATT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: As i said earlier 4" for me 6" for you. Maybe. There will surely be a glory band of +SN near you and hopefully you get in on it. Unless we trend further NW I am not expecting more than a few hours of moderate snow. 3-4" If I get 6” and a snow day I call it a win. Not expecting to jack or anything. Just want to be able to enjoy it with the fam and dog. Maybe try out the knee at Wachusett a bit... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 No nannas over 52 jeezus and none in the mix currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 A few things here on this 0z GFS run, More amped s/w down south, Trough digging a little more south, And a more consolidated SLP and you see the results. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Will, which product shows the H85 inflow? That is what killed me last event....I need to consider that more moving forward. Just look at a basic 850/temp/wind map...the wind flags should be on there and you'll see the inflow that way....here's one from pivotal weather....I circled the wind flag....you can see 40-50 knots slamming up into the cape and turning toward the NW (and even that area to the left near LI) and running into a region with very low wind speed...that's gonna cause big fronogenesis and upward motion above 850....this isn't completely classic as the circulation is still somewhat lopsided, but its a lot better than something like today...but the faster this develops, the stronger and further NW the best banding will likely be: 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: If I get 6” and a snow day I call it a win. Not expecting to jack or anything. Just want to be able to enjoy it with the fam and dog. Maybe try out the knee at Wachusett a bit... Oh' yeah, trust me, we are pulling for a snow day here. I think it would actually be #4 if it happens. Again, hoping of the NW tug and taint for the E brethren, no offense y'all. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted March 3, 2019 Author Share Posted March 3, 2019 Hey everyone, I'm running a poll to see the average age of the weenies on here, if you have a second just go in and click on the box with your age range. Thanks! https://www.strawpoll.me/17535754 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Just look at a basic 850/temp/wind map...the wind flags should be on there and you'll see the inflow that way....here's one from pivotal weather....I circled the wind flag....you can see 40-50 knots slamming up into the cape and running into a region with very low wind speed...that's gonna cause big fronogenesis and upward motion above 850....this isn't completely classic as the circulation is still somewhat lopsided, but its a lot better than something like today...but the faster this develops, the stronger and further NW the best banding will likely be: Well thanks! That is a concise weather lesson with no tuition bill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 1 minute ago, tiger_deF said: Hey everyone, I'm running a poll to see the average age of the weenies on here, if you have a second just go in and click on the box with your age range. Thanks! https://www.strawpoll.me/17535754 You actually don't need to do this: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/51904-age-survey/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, tiger_deF said: Hey everyone, I'm running a poll to see the average age of the weenies on here, if you have a second just go in and click on the box with your age range. Thanks! https://www.strawpoll.me/17535754 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 I'm obviously pulling for the track over ACK... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted March 3, 2019 Author Share Posted March 3, 2019 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: Oh true, guess I'm trying to see who's on late night crew now that the younguns are in bed Ironic because I'm 16 and easily in the bottom 1 percentile of age according to the survey 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Well thanks! That is a concise weather lesson with no tuition bill. NP.....the key is turning that into inflow from the southeast (and in well developed storms, eventually the east and even NE)...I probably should have circled it more toward the southwest to show the flags pointing from the SE more and not the ones pointing from the due south....the ones from the due south won't help as much....we want that Atlantic inflow so get it toward land. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Will beat me to it... Regarding frontogenesis, any thoughts on how well Tropical Tidbits 850 fronto map depictions do? That’s where I was pulling that Foxboro to Hingham area from... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I'm obviously pulling for the track over ACK... The WRF-ARW 12z would do us nicely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Will beat me to it... Regarding frontogenesis, any thoughts on how well Tropical Tidbits 850 fronto map depictions do? That’s where I was pulling that Foxboro to Hingham area from... My guess is modeled f-gen is literally taking the change in T over time. But as we know, models often under-forecast how much warming occurs aloft. We notice it more when it gets to 0C, but the same really applies when it's -10C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Will beat me to it... Regarding frontogenesis, any thoughts on how well Tropical Tidbits 850 fronto map depictions do? That’s where I was pulling that Foxboro to Hingham area from... You actually would prefer higher than 850...like 700mb fronto (and even that is sometimes a bit SE of where the best banding will happen)....depends on the setup. In really weak systems (like the clipper the other night), 850mb fronto can be more accurate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Just now, OceanStWx said: My guess is modeled f-gen is literally taking the change in T over time. But as we know, models often under-forecast how much warming occurs aloft. We notice it more when it gets to 0C, but the same really applies when it's -10C. Thank you. This and Will’s explanation are helpful. Wiz should copy those Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: You actually would prefer higher than 850...like 700mb fronto (and even that is sometimes a bit SE of where the best banding will happen)....depends on the setup. In really weak systems (like the clipper the other night), 850mb fronto can be more accurate. Obviously the key with f-gen is that this is where the lift originates from. It will most often be sloped towards the cold air, and so snow falls farther NW then where the f-gen max actually is. The more 700 mb f-gen is maxed right over 850, the more likely that there will be a sharper NW edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JKEisMan Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Href also showing few hours of near 2”/hr rates from box to orh to the s and se. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: Obviously the key with f-gen is that this is where the lift originates from. It will most often be sloped towards the cold air, and so snow falls farther NW then where the f-gen max actually is. The more 700 mb f-gen is maxed right over 850, the more likely that there will be a sharper NW edge. I'm not interested in deriving the 3D frontogenesis equation by hand anymore....doing it once 16 years ago was enough. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 HiRes RGEM wrecks Tolland-ORH-BOS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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