weathafella Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 People do this every storm. Then when they see banding way NW of Boston they tell you it wasn't modeled. Qpf os the poorest indicator and has the worst verification 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Just now, weathafella said: People do this every storm. Then when they see banding way NW of Boston they tell you it wasn't modeled. Qpf os the poorest indicator and has the worst verification Yup. H7 and h8 screaming banding. 6-12" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 hrrr improved, starting to consolidate convection tugging the weenie nw some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 35 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I see a pig That's clearly a hedgehog. I don't even know what some of you are looking at. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 13 minutes ago, weathafella said: People do this every storm. Then when they see banding way NW of Boston they tell you it wasn't modeled. Qpf os the poorest indicator and has the worst verification This!!! Some out way too much stock into QPF forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: hrrr improved, starting to consolidate convection tugging the weenie nw some. Yup for the past 3-4 runs it's been steadily trending NW with an earlier turn at that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 there really is some solid potential for some places to have deep snow cover (a foot plus) by Monday morning....best odds probably central/northern mass/nw ct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Just now, weatherwiz said: This!!! Some out way too much stock into QPF forecasts. Pros like you and I, and a few others...who have been taught by the best...look at qpf last. We go top to bottom, top to bottom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 minute ago, tiger_deF said: Yup for the past 3-4 runs it's been steadily trending NW with an earlier turn at that Snowfall output still isn’t great - especially compared to the other models... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Just now, bristolri_wx said: Snowfall output still isn’t great - especially compared to the other models... That's true, considering it gets below 990 and has a decent vorticity it's pretty surprising just how low the snow totals are. I guess it isn't factoring banding, which could easily add numerous inches to totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Just now, tiger_deF said: That's true, considering it gets below 990 and has a decent vorticity it's pretty surprising just how low the snow totals are. I guess it isn't factoring banding, which could easily add numerous inches to totals. Very true - and you would think a hi-res model would be all over that banding... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Pros like you and I, and a few others...who have been taught by the best...look at qpf last. We go top to bottom, top to bottom. Bingo!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 My thoughts... tough forecast, we're watching a vorticity mosh pit try to clarify in a dominant direction... next 6 hours of nowcast will tell all... and with H7 closing I went more bullish NW compared to most guidance... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 minute ago, wxsniss said: My thoughts... tough forecast, we're watching a vorticity mosh pit try to clarify in a dominant direction... next 6 hours of nowcast will tell all... and with H7 closing I went more bullish NW compared to most guidance... Nice map dude. It’s how we would color it with a *** disclaimer - possible 12+ lollies if shit breaks right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 4 minutes ago, wxsniss said: My thoughts... tough forecast, we're watching a vorticity mosh pit try to clarify in a dominant direction... next 6 hours of nowcast will tell all... and with H7 closing I went more bullish NW compared to most guidance... I like it! What program did you use? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 I used to do overlapping totals on maps, but after forecasting for so long and doing the final totals map, it never works out that way. IMO, best for verification, just go in butt to butt increments Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 I thInk ORH exceeds those totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Snow starting to develop by state college. And Pittsburgh .. will be watching to see how much that fills in tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Just in the first frame of the NAM you can already see that it's placed the feature inside of Tennessee as the dominant low for now, where before it had the low right off the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Just now, tiger_deF said: NAM 0z suite is coming out shortly Only out to hour 3 but it definitely looks better off the start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 2, 2019 Author Share Posted March 2, 2019 Low level precipitation bands developing south of ACK and MVY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Watch and learn kids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 our storm in hour 9 of the NAM seems to have phasing issues? I'm not sure, the whole transition is bizzare and doesn't really represent what's going on on satellite, not as organized Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Still chasing convection 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Just now, weathafella said: Still chasing convection Yup!! Should find out if it's real or not in a few hours.. waiting on the GFS then going to bed until 3 dont want to miss one of our last storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 H12 NAM is a complete mess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Just now, weathafella said: Still chasing convection Like a degenerate at Foxwoods, chasing losses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Also...seems to have slowed things down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Look at hr14 it has no idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 You could see it clear as day. Chases the convective blob thinking it’s getting a free ride to France.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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