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Ji

The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Mjo progression would support that. 

one of the thing HM talked about where these sneak attacks of -NAO....and there happens to be one for Wed

 

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7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

For the love of GOD....call JB and DO NOT LET HIM UNCANCEL WINTER!!!!  Tie him up or smash his computer if you have too...but please god don't let him uncancel it.  

And DT. Or has he cancelled, uncancelled, and cancelled again?

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7 minutes ago, Ji said:

ive learned that everyone has a long way to go. Earlier we thought that the storm fizziling this saturday and not becoming a 50 50 low might turn the wed storm into rain...weather is gonna do what it wants to...no matter what phase. One thing forecasters should consider is not to change anything for 24-48 hours after bad runs. You dont know if its a hiccup...or trend.....you can literally go from a weenie GFS ensembles run to winter over in 12 hours per modeling and then back to weenie 24 hours later

AMEN!!!

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1 minute ago, Ji said:

one of the thing HM talked about where these sneak attacks of -NAO....and there happens to be one for Wed

 

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I think the orientation of the 50/50 trended better also.  

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11 minutes ago, Ji said:

ive learned that everyone has a long way to go. Earlier we thought that the storm fizziling this saturday and not becoming a 50 50 low might turn the wed storm into rain...weather is gonna do what it wants to...no matter what phase. One thing forecasters should consider is not to change anything for 24-48 hours after bad runs. You dont know if its a hiccup...or trend.....you can literally go from a weenie GFS ensembles run to winter over in 12 hours per modeling and then back to weenie 24 hours later

That would be a disaster! "Sorry we missed the thunderstorms in our forecast.  They didn't show up two days ago." lol

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5 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

That would be a disaster! "Sorry we missed the thunderstorms in our forecast.  They didn't show up two days ago." lol

Nuance is not your thing 

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5 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

I wonder when was the last time Phase 8 was with such -PNA? I agree.. the "precip event" could trend colder. 

NAM says Sunday's event clearly trending colder

 

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6 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

I wonder when was the last time Phase 8 was with such -PNA? I agree.. the "precip event" could trend colder. 

Edit: MJO is pretty weak. 

 

Chuck is that you or did Ji hack your account. 

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So essentially the storm will almost certainly track west, it's just a matter of how strong the wedge of cold air is to determine how long the front end snow/ice will last? It would be nice to get one clean snowstorm track but this clearly is not the winter for that lol. 

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4 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

So essentially the storm will almost certainly track west, it's just a matter of how strong the wedge of cold air is to determine how long the front end snow/ice will last? It would be nice to get one clean snowstorm track but this clearly is not the winter for that lol. 

Possibly, but I don't think the idea that this thing ends up a little farther south and east and transfers to the coast is off the table at all yet. Still pretty early in the game considering all the changes that keep taking place from run to run. 

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Just now, osfan24 said:

Possibly, but I don't think the idea that this thing ends up a little farther south and east and transfers to the coast is off the table at all yet. Still pretty early in the game considering all the changes that keep taking place from run to run. 

Well that would be fantastic, but I haven't seen a whole lot of that on the modeling lol

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8 minutes ago, RVASnowLover said:

I guess DT didn't see 12Z suite for the 19/20 event. He just posted and his downplaying it. Little snow  then changing "fairly quickly" to rain 

i imagine that's for richmond which would make sense given the waa depicted.  could still trend better for the whole area, but for now temps could still use a little bit of work to put everyone in the comfort zone.

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Just caught up while sipping beer one (Denizen’s Bohemian Pils-awesome). I see two buck Chuck is the new Bob Chill. Simply amazing. How’s our European soil temps Chuck!? :lol:

 

So we might actually have a real storm that’s not a weekend? Well that’s different.

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10 minutes ago, 87storms said:

i imagine that's for richmond which would make sense given the waa depicted.  could still trend better for the whole area, but for now temps could still use a little bit of work to put everyone in the comfort zone.

He was talking about everywhere, including the DMV area. 

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9 minutes ago, 87storms said:

i imagine that's for richmond which would make sense given the waa depicted.  could still trend better for the whole area, but for now temps could still use a little bit of work to put everyone in the comfort zone.

Nope. He is talking about our area too. It’s kind of weird. With the Euro as depicted this afternoon, I would think he would be woofing. I guess he’s assuming it will turn to rain.  Maybe it’s that he has canceled winter again. So maybe that’s good for us.  

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In all honesty I can't really blame DT for being hesitant. It's still a horrible track of the low. EPS was really nice with the cold air out ahead and holding strong but if that eases up at all it's easily a quick snow to rain situation. 

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My favorite part of this synoptic setup is the placement of the block to the north right in the 50/50 locale. It’s actually created by two strong areas of low pressure that fujiwara, maintaining one prolific block up top. Notice the high over the NE US gets displaced to north and weakens some, but can’t really eject out of here. This keeps the surface return flow in a favorable position for the entirety of the event during the Euro’s lifecycle. Here’s what I’m talking about. Take a look in the North Atlantic.

IMG_1011.gif


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10 minutes ago, RVASnowLover said:

He was talking about everywhere, including the DMV area. 

Who cares. He cancelled winter for THE ENTIRE NORTHEAST right before a big chunk from northern MD north was getting a significant snow/ice storm. Then he uncancelled and barked about a storm for DC that is hitting southern VA. And now he is debbing next week?  Whatever. 

I actually like him. Fellow eagles combative arse.  But he gets emotional and then goes full tilt and his forecasting gets affected. Right now he is all over the place and needs a vacation or something. 

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Who cares. He cancelled winter for THE ENTIRE NORTHEAST right before a big chunk from northern MD north was getting a significant snow/ice storm. Then he uncancelled and barked about a storm for DC that is hitting southern VA. And now he is debbing next week?  Whatever. 

I actually like him. Fellow eagles combative arse.  But he gets emotional and then goes full tilt and his forecasting gets affected. Right now he is all over the place and needs a vacation or something. 

Watch out, he may private message you lil

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