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Hybrid Clipper Event 1/27-1/29

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26 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

3-5" snows are redundant after a while.

If it comes with 50dbz returns I don't know how that can feel redundant?  I don't think I've ever experienced that in a snowstorm.

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2 minutes ago, wisconsinwx said:

If it comes with 50dbz returns I don't know how that can feel redundant?  I don't think I've ever experienced that in a snowstorm.

50dbz? Where is that being modeled lol

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A potential "consolation prize" for those well south of the low center could be sort of an interesting temp crash with the cold front.  For example the NAM has Cedar Rapids in the mid 30s around 12z Monday, and by 18z it's in the lower teens.  Would think there could be some decent instability snow showers in the midst of all that CAA as well.

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2 minutes ago, Stebo said:

50dbz? Where is that being modeled lol

I think he's talking about the 50bz snows with golf ball plus flakes I had last system.

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4 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

I think he's talking about the 50bz snows with golf ball plus flakes I had last system.

Yes, there have been dynamic systems I have been a part of but I'm pretty certain 50dbz and golf ball sized flakes haven't been a part of any of them.  Most of the time I would agree that continuous 3-5" systems could become mundane, but the way this winter started for most of us and the activity we've seen of late it does seem a bit much to be upset about it.

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6 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

I think he's talking about the 50bz snows with golf ball plus flakes I had last system.

Ahh I was going to say. I haven't seen any of that here.

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1 hour ago, Roger Smith said:

Whatever the track, this low will be interacting with two very cold air masses ahead and following it in. It may not have a very well-defined warm sector at all, and could become one of those circular blizzards of days past. There was a storm like this on Jan 30-31, 1971 if you want to see an analogue. Snowfalls of 4-8" along the track and 10-15" lake enhanced could be expected.

Green Bay might get 15-30 inches of snow out of this as a lake effect dynamic persists ahead of the low and behind it. The u.p. of Michigan will have life-threatening blizzard conditions with -15 air temps and -40 wind chills with S+ from still-unfrozen Lake Superior (we'll see how long that lasts next week). 

Would say 6-9" most likely for Chicago, 9-15" Milwaukee, 5-10" range in s MI and sw ON to 20" locally in lake effect squalls. 

Was commenting in the temp thread that the following air mass is record cold already up in the central arctic, -56 F at Shepherd Bay, NU

I really hope you are correct about the totals for Wisconsin, sounds like this system could be a lot of fun. Random question, because Sheperd Bay 10 day forecast looks horrible.  Who is Sheperd and why does he have a bay that is so cold?

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0z ECMWF did bump north, but is the farthest south of any OP guidance now.

It has a track near I-88 in IL.

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3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

0z ECMWF did bump north, but is the farthest south of any OP guidance now.

It has a track near I-88 in IL.

Surprisingly though it was a small bump north especially compared to the other models which jumped fairly significantly.

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Just now, StormChaser4Life said:

Yea euro didn't jump as north as I expected. Well curious to see what models do tomorrow. Hopefully more sampling will sort this all out

keep hope alive :lol:

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5 minutes ago, Stebo said:

keep hope alive :lol:

Very small glimmer of hope. Lol. I'm just trying to avoid plain rain. Like cyclone I want to be as primed as possible for this arctic intrusion. Picked up 2.5in of fluff today. Don't want it to wash away

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8 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Very small glimmer of hope. Lol. I'm just trying to avoid plain rain. Like cyclone I want to be as primed as possible for this arctic intrusion. Picked up 2.5in of fluff today. Don't want it to wash away

Was looping the 3km NAM radar simulation a bit earlier, and I can definitely envision the system digging further south before it turns more easterly.  That would have a big impact further downstream.  Not saying it's going to happen, but that's one thing to watch out for as we go forward.  

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4 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Was looping the 3km NAM radar simulation a bit earlier, and I can definitely envision the system digging further south before it turns more easterly.  That would have a big impact further downstream.  Not saying it's going to happen, but that's one thing to watch out for as we go forward.  

Don't get my hopes up ;) lol. If this was pure clipper system I would be confident on a south shift as we approached because that's common with clippers but due to this being more of a hybrid not so sure that will be the case

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See LOT going with the north solutions. Feels the Euro is an outlier...which it is at this point. Hoisted Watches for the far north counties of Illinois.

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See LOT going with the north solutions. Feels the Euro is an outlier...which it is at this point. Hoisted Watches for the far north counties of Illinois.
4-8 in the point and click. Suprised at that amount seeing that we are at best on the fringe.

Looks like a quiet work day staying home from Wisconsin on tap regardless. It was a nightmare drive up there last Wednesday morning. Not doing that again.

Sent from my SM-G935P using Tapatalk

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2 minutes ago, kevlon62 said:

4-8 in the point and click. Suprised at that amount seeing that we are at best on the fringe.

Looks like a quiet work day staying home from Wisconsin on tap regardless. It was a nightmare drive up there last Wednesday morning. Not doing that again.

Sent from my SM-G935P using Tapatalk
 

your not really on the fringe

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your not really on the fringe

Say more

 

Edit: Why the conservative WSW from LOT? Not saying I don't see their map.

 

Edit 2: Conservative in terms of only Watches for the northern tier of counties.

 

Sent from my SM-G935P using Tapatalk

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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7 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said:

Skilling

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Must be using WGN's own RPM model for that projected storm track

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