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MAG5035

Central PA - Jan/Feb 2019 Obs and Discussion

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21 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

384 hr GEFS looks great. 

:gun_bandana:

what a year. 

Iso stay around. We need you. 

Itll get better next year. 

If we totaled up the snow on the 384 hr GEFS and Euro we'd be like Erie last year. 

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1 hour ago, canderson said:

... back to the weather.

At a quick glance it appears the 12z models lost basically every snowmaker potential for the next week. Cutters but I don't see any cold air to help it not rain. 

12z run of the euro has us (LSV) with our best chance for snow Tuesday night into early Wednesday but even that run verbatim the vertical profile is a degree or two too warm for snow and then wants to develop a southeast ridge late next week behind that system that would likely keep temps at or above normal here through next weekend.

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18 minutes ago, djr5001 said:

12z run of the euro has us (LSV) with our best chance for snow Tuesday night into early Wednesday but even that run verbatim the vertical profile is a degree or two too warm for snow and then wants to develop a southeast ridge late next week behind that system that would likely keep temps at or above normal here through next weekend.

The ignore button has been mentioned several times recently...I think if we put the ignore button the MA LR thread we might be less disappointed at times (and that includes myself).  There was some reason for cautious optimism based on some of the LR models, over the last few days, but the constant 'Best look ever' Weenie run of the year' posts on that thread almost make it seem like there is no way we are going to miss out. 

 

 

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2 hours ago, canderson said:

... back to the weather.

At a quick glance it appears the 12z models lost basically every snowmaker potential for the next week. Cutters but I don't see any cold air to help it not rain. 

 

1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

384 hr GEFS looks great. 

:gun_bandana:

what a year. 

Iso stay around. We need you. 

Itll get better next year. 

Until we lessen the influence of that western trough we're gonna be vulnerable to cutters or be very close to the boundary in the absence of any NAO blocking to counter the SE ridging. The amount of snow the Cascades and Sierras have seen as well as all the way down in elevation to Seattle would serve as enough of an example on it's own of the kind of anomalous trough over that region. That stretches down to Hawaii, where a few days ago Maui had snow down to around 6k feet in elevation (just about the 850mb level). Snow in Hawaii isn't a crazy thing...at the higher peaks. Down to 6k feet in elevation?? That might be about the lowest it's ever been recorded there. If we didn't have the nice Pac ridge near and into the Gulf of Alaska and Alaska to point the airmass source region from Canada, we'd probably be talking the type of warm weather stretches we've seen in the last 2 Februarys. But that's been how this winter has gone since about December. The cold air availability has been there, the storm track has not been. 

And even with all that in mind, our subforum has probably been faring the best overall in the winter weather department when you compare to the DC/Philly/NYC/and SNE regions. I know it seems like Boston and surrounding towns have had snowy winters about as much as Tom Brady makes the super bowl the past however many years but you know where KBOS is to date with snow? 4.7". And the 95 corridor down towards NYC hasn't really fared any better. At least half of us in here had about that much from just the last storm that ultimately cut to Michigan. So it could be worse haha. Most of our regular climo stations in C-PA can still get to average on a couple more half decent events. 

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3 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

 

Until we lessen the influence of that western trough we're gonna be vulnerable to cutters or be very close to the boundary in the absence of any NAO blocking to counter the SE ridging. The amount of snow the Cascades and Sierras have seen as well as all the way down in elevation to Seattle would serve as enough of an example on it's own of the kind of anomalous trough over that region. That stretches down to Hawaii, where a few days ago Maui had snow down to around 6k feet in elevation (just about the 850mb level). Snow in Hawaii isn't a crazy thing...at the higher peaks. Down to 6k feet in elevation?? That might be about the lowest it's ever been recorded there. If we didn't have the nice Pac ridge near and into the Gulf of Alaska and Alaska to point the airmass source region from Canada, we'd probably be talking the type of warm weather stretches we've seen in the last 2 Februarys. But that's been how this winter has gone since about December. The cold air availability has been there, the storm track has not been. 

And even with all that in mind, our subforum has probably been faring the best overall in the winter weather department when you compare to the DC/Philly/NYC/and SNE regions. I know it seems like Boston and surrounding towns have had snowy winters about as much as Tom Brady makes the super bowl the past however many years but you know where KBOS is to date with snow? 4.7". And the 95 corridor down towards NYC hasn't really fared any better. At least half of us in here had about that much from just the last storm that ultimately cut to Michigan. So it could be worse haha. Most of our regular climo stations in C-PA can still get to average on a couple more half decent events. 

You bring up a great point that I put out in the MA thread yesterday, but got no response (they can be very clickish in there).

The persistence of troughing in the West has me baffled.  Why has the PNA been so consistently - and not +.  Would you blame ENSO/MJO?  I know phase 8 favors trough in the East, and we've been waiting for it and here it is, yet...wash rinse repeat....were gonna cut.

Do you think the SSW has peturbed the AO domain unfavorably?

So many questions.....lol

Yeah i know were doing O K, but it has been a struggle down my way.  I'm glad true CTP has been better w/ events.  You guys were due, and yeah, still time, but its early 3rd period and we need a reversal/takedown/backpoints (wresting analogies) to get a win for me.

 

 

 

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48 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

 

Until we lessen the influence of that western trough we're gonna be vulnerable to cutters or be very close to the boundary in the absence of any NAO blocking to counter the SE ridging. The amount of snow the Cascades and Sierras have seen as well as all the way down in elevation to Seattle would serve as enough of an example on it's own of the kind of anomalous trough over that region. That stretches down to Hawaii, where a few days ago Maui had snow down to around 6k feet in elevation (just about the 850mb level). Snow in Hawaii isn't a crazy thing...at the higher peaks. Down to 6k feet in elevation?? That might be about the lowest it's ever been recorded there. If we didn't have the nice Pac ridge near and into the Gulf of Alaska and Alaska to point the airmass source region from Canada, we'd probably be talking the type of warm weather stretches we've seen in the last 2 Februarys. But that's been how this winter has gone since about December. The cold air availability has been there, the storm track has not been. 

And even with all that in mind, our subforum has probably been faring the best overall in the winter weather department when you compare to the DC/Philly/NYC/and SNE regions. I know it seems like Boston and surrounding towns have had snowy winters about as much as Tom Brady makes the super bowl the past however many years but you know where KBOS is to date with snow? 4.7". And the 95 corridor down towards NYC hasn't really fared any better. At least half of us in here had about that much from just the last storm that ultimately cut to Michigan. So it could be worse haha. Most of our regular climo stations in C-PA can still get to average on a couple more half decent events. 

Mag,

 

Thanks for giving us a more scientific look at what is evolving whether good or bad.   Funny thing...I went to a new doctor a few months ago and she commented how she loved Hawaii because it never snowed there.  I pointed out to her that it snows yearly on the islands that have high altitude peaks and she vehemently disagreed with me and said it was impossible for it to snow anywhere in Hawaii.  I found a new doctor.

 

 

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3 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

 

Until we lessen the influence of that western trough we're gonna be vulnerable to cutters or be very close to the boundary in the absence of any NAO blocking to counter the SE ridging. The amount of snow the Cascades and Sierras have seen as well as all the way down in elevation to Seattle would serve as enough of an example on it's own of the kind of anomalous trough over that region. That stretches down to Hawaii, where a few days ago Maui had snow down to around 6k feet in elevation (just about the 850mb level). Snow in Hawaii isn't a crazy thing...at the higher peaks. Down to 6k feet in elevation?? That might be about the lowest it's ever been recorded there. If we didn't have the nice Pac ridge near and into the Gulf of Alaska and Alaska to point the airmass source region from Canada, we'd probably be talking the type of warm weather stretches we've seen in the last 2 Februarys. But that's been how this winter has gone since about December. The cold air availability has been there, the storm track has not been. 

And even with all that in mind, our subforum has probably been faring the best overall in the winter weather department when you compare to the DC/Philly/NYC/and SNE regions. I know it seems like Boston and surrounding towns have had snowy winters about as much as Tom Brady makes the super bowl the past however many years but you know where KBOS is to date with snow? 4.7". And the 95 corridor down towards NYC hasn't really fared any better. At least half of us in here had about that much from just the last storm that ultimately cut to Michigan. So it could be worse haha. Most of our regular climo stations in C-PA can still get to average on a couple more half decent events. 

Great post MAG.

Yes, Most of CTP has done ok with snow so far this season. MDT is currently running about 4 inches above normal snow through today’s date. We have a good chance to reach climo snow here. We only need 7 or 8 inches of snow to get there by the end of this season at MDT.

The Philly to Boston corridor has really struggled with snow this season to date. 

I think the models will be adjusting over the next few days. The MJO just reached phase 8 today, & should be heading to phase 1 by next week according to the Euro.

Also, the SOI has been very negative over the last 4 days with readings of -19,-23,-25 & -19.  

Usually there is about a 1 week or so of lag time until the impacts of the MJO & SOI take effect. Usually this combination leads to a very good winter pattern for the east. Hopefully we can have a good 2 to 4 week run of winter weather later this month through March.

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The GFS, GEFS, Euro & EPS today all said that by Wednesday we have a few inches of snow.

The last few times that the MA forum has cancelled winter, we seemed to get snow the following week. Just a few days ago there was great optimism. I think the models will respond soon to the MJO & SOI.

Plus, we still have 6 weeks to go to score more snow. There is still lots of time !

 

490258A7-8741-4705-B2B8-F386039D6C8B.png

92C56D68-4819-479E-A4A5-D6D74383D940.png

45890C72-EFC5-4FD9-AEDF-6BDDFE4FAE65.png

6E4921CC-657E-4AB8-A3C6-285CCF75C781.png

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I am going to share in the enthusiasm from Blizz.  Not because of any specific model data rather the thought that nothing has changed from several days ago except model output.  There is enough cold air to make anyone one of these waves a winter threat if their eventual timing coincides with any type of blocking even if it is a fleeting block.  Mag's post said it well as to the trough in the west not being conducive to repeated threats but any one of them is still open the possibility of being blocked under us.  The cold air is marginal which is a second strike but not sure I see a all out blow torch coming.

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1 hour ago, bubbler86 said:

The 12Z Nam (and I believe 0Z Euro) are trying to bring that Sunday disturbance back as something to whiten the ground.

image.png.279f466063e7e7a09e18e261e7d0d00c.png

 

Icon and GFS stepped towards a better look for next week, especially for the northern parts of the region.  

Boundary war going on, but if we get a couple more ticks S/SE with either, we could step our way into something.  

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14 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Icon and GFS stepped towards a better look for next week, especially for the northern parts of the region.  

Boundary war going on, but if we get a couple more ticks S/SE with either, we could step our way into something.  

GFS has so many chances that it stills puts 4-8" on most of the LSV over the next 7-10 days even with some rainers in there. 

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53 minutes ago, canderson said:

Forecast high was 52. It's already 54.

Nice spring day outside for February 15. 

I saw ice and snow on trees yesterday with a temp of 50.  Crazy winter. Usually the trees are the first to lose snow (well after the road of course). 

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Just now, paweather5 said:

All models look better for Wednesday. Euro looks good. 

0B14B8FE-939D-41DB-8E26-11BF122C820E.png

It sure does.  I am waiting for someone to put out the snow and qpf maps but I would guess 8+ inches right now as to that run. 

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3 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

It sure does.  I am waiting for someone to put out the snow and qpf maps but I would guess 8+ inches right now as to that run. 

 

D06B45ED-93A1-49C9-8265-C7DB3A365EC2.jpeg

112DBF60-4106-4458-8C45-DFA6F406C4A8.jpeg

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20 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

Hopefully all the folks spending the day taking their plows and tires chains off see this before finishing the job. 

I don’t pull any of our snow removal stuff before March 15th. After the last couple of winters having some nice snows into late March, I have learned that lesson the hard way. 

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49 minutes ago, paweather5 said:

All models look better for Wednesday. Euro looks good. 

0B14B8FE-939D-41DB-8E26-11BF122C820E.png

This 12z Euro run looks somewhat close to a repeat of this past week (not referring to setup/pattern but how event plays out p-type wise).  Initial snowfall across LSV and some into central and NE PA while SW PA gets torched + rain before warm air aloft wins out with colder temps near the surface for the transition of snow to ice.  Critical thicknesses again not on a favorable side with the warm air push aloft but temps just cold enough for accumulations.  If only we can get a few runs to show this now and maybe get timing about 6 hours or so earlier so initial snow falls overnight I would say there is at least a chance!  Just a week later but peak sun angle next week is almost 3 degrees higher and length of day 20 minutes longer - equivalent to October 21 - which starts to matter here soon in fringe temperature situations in adding a little melting to the accumulating snow during the daytime hours.

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Hi all from cloudy, but mild Atlanta where the temperature is currently 60 degrees.  The daffodils are in full bloom.  Some trees are budding.  When we were in the 60's last week they were in the 80's.  I'm down for a super-short visit with my son and fly back tonight.  I see it's 53 at my home in Carlisle right now.  How lovely...lol.  Great to see posting pick back up after the Wednesday storm appears to be back on the table, and even bigger and better than before.  Also glad to see the forum settling back down and hopefully returning to its normal, friendlier self.  Talk to you all after I'm back home.

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4 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Hi all from cloudy, but mild Atlanta where the temperature is currently 60 degrees.  The daffodils are in full bloom.  Some trees are budding.  When we were in the 60's last week they were in the 80's.  I'm down for a super-short visit with my son and fly back tonight.  I see it's 53 at my home in Carlisle right now.  How lovely...lol.  Great to see posting pick back up after the Wednesday storm appears to be back on the table, and even bigger and better than before.  Also glad to see the forum settling back down and hopefully returning to its normal, friendlier self.  Talk to you all after I'm back home.

It is up to 61 here now (back in PA).  Nice that Atlanta is cooler.  (Said sarcastically) 

 

 

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44 minutes ago, djr5001 said:

This 12z Euro run looks somewhat close to a repeat of this past week (not referring to setup/pattern but how event plays out p-type wise).  Initial snowfall across LSV and some into central and NE PA while SW PA gets torched + rain before warm air aloft wins out with colder temps near the surface for the transition of snow to ice.  Critical thicknesses again not on a favorable side with the warm air push aloft but temps just cold enough for accumulations.  If only we can get a few runs to show this now and maybe get timing about 6 hours or so earlier so initial snow falls overnight I would say there is at least a chance!  Just a week later but peak sun angle next week is almost 3 degrees higher and length of day 20 minutes longer - equivalent to October 21 - which starts to matter here soon in fringe temperature situations in adding a little melting to the accumulating snow during the daytime hours.

Hmm, the surface temps I saw seemed quite a bit lower than this last storm.  Unfortunately without a premium site subscription I cannot see the whole column but can tell we do lose 850's later in the storm.  I would be surprised if the storm, played out exactly like shown on the EC if we got less than 8" area wide as to S Central PA.

 

 

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