wolfie09 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Model noise when it comes to precip.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 The Ukie is showing this: Draw a line from about Oswego to Ithaca. West of that line sees between 5 to 10 inches. East of that line is 10 to 15 inches. The Watertown area and North sees the 5 to 10 inches as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Ofcourse euro isn't going to represent lake enhanced well. So this looks great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Euro now has this on the 24th.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 It was a great run so the 00Z suite was a heart breaker but the Euro changed all that, lol I'm riding that FV3 for sure!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Winter storm warning 5 to 10"...huh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Nam looks even more worse @ 6Z lol, what a complete POG that model is seriously! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Good forecast! ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY... ...WIND CHILL WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Dangerously cold wind chills possible. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 12 inches expected Saturday night and Sunday. Wind chills as low as 35 below zero possible Sunday night and Monday. * WHERE...Oswego and Lewis counties. * WHEN...For the Winter Storm Warning, from 4 PM Saturday to 6 PM EST Sunday. For the Wind Chill Watch, from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be very difficult. The dangerously cold wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 15 minutes. Also looks like most models have taken away our beloved LES afterward as its bone dry directly behind the system so I don't see much anymore in the way of LEnhancement along the South Shore, bummer oh well at leaast the globals are now showing snow for the mid-week event so.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Little difference with KBGM but slightly greater amounts! WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 11 to 17 inches expected. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph Sunday afternoon, with areas of blowing and drifting snow. * WHERE...Northern Oneida, Yates, Seneca, Southern Cayuga and Onondaga counties. * WHEN...From noon Saturday to 4 PM EST Sunday. The heaviest snow is expected to fall Saturday evening into Sunday morning. Snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour are expected during this time. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Also, winds will pick up considerably Sunday afternoon, causing blowing snow and dangerously low wind chills into Sunday night. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 I don;t think anyone really has a handle on this here beast as the NAM is all over the place it seems. The NAM at 06Z actually looks better with phase but still doesn't deliver the goods, IDK! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Gfs v3 actually increases precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 31 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Winter storm warning 5 to 10"...huh. I’m standing by my call of this being just advisory level on most of the Niagara Frontier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, WNash said: I’m standing by my call of this being just advisory level on most of the Niagara Frontier. Lol you are the great Kreskin!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 22 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Good forecast! ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY... ...WIND CHILL WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Dangerously cold wind chills possible. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 12 inches expected Saturday night and Sunday. Wind chills as low as 35 below zero possible Sunday night and Monday. * WHERE...Oswego and Lewis counties. * WHEN...For the Winter Storm Warning, from 4 PM Saturday to 6 PM EST Sunday. For the Wind Chill Watch, from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be very difficult. The dangerously cold wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 15 minutes. Also looks like most models have taken away our beloved LES afterward as its bone dry directly behind the system so I don't see much anymore in the way of LEnhancement along the South Shore, bummer oh well at leaast the globals are now showing snow for the mid-week event so.... I looked at both runs of the GFS this AM and it shows a cutter with rain to some snow on Wednesday and a swing and a miss for the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charlee4615 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 New here, originally from Southern PA (boy do I miss those storms) but now I’m in school in the Ithaca area (do we even get storms)... I have to say euro, fv3, ukie, and rgem all show a very decent hit for Ithaca, especially factoring in ratios. At this point, at least over here, I’m comfortable holding out hope. new fv3 out and I stand by my hope! edit: each of those models listed above shows totals approach 20 or > when you use the kuchara method. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Wow, this is nice, as another new member to hear from especially obs as we have another poster from Ithaca so.... Welcome Charlee! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charlee4615 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 4 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Wow, this is nice, as another new member to hear from especially obs as we have another poster from Ithaca so.... Welcome Charlee! Thanks! I’ll be here definitely for this storm and periodically after. Once the semester starts, it’s a tug of war between tracking and reading. But always happy to provide some obs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 This model is nuts as it raised totals again, not by much but at least.25"! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Im ridin this model till I croak if I have to, lol! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 It has been consistant looks more euro like too. I like how it pops close to 2 inches near roc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Lots of emotions and disappointment over the b team last nignt. Looks like everything is on track. Im a big fan of the rgem/ecmwf combo. Its pretty deadly. Ecmwf was definitely a tick nw regardless of the final qpf output. Oh and the ssw was effective. Enjoy your cold lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 The easiest way we will know if this model is anywhere near correct is to simply keep an eye on OH today and tonight to see where frozen precip gets to. So that should be a good indication as to how far this precip actually gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 FWIW, channel 4s in house model shows the heaviest right over WNY and looked very impressive. Not sure which model their in house model is based off of though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Maybe their own, as most channels up here have their own in-house model at least channel 9 does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Any one notice how fluffy the snow is this morning. Surprises sitting at 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, CNY-WXFREAK said: Maybe their own, as most channels up here have their own in-house model at least channel 9 does. Heaviest went from JUST south of BUF to ROC to SYR, I sure hope it’s right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just looked out my window to find grass is totally covered with steady snow falling. nice surprise for sure! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Bump up on 06Z ICON, Nice! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Perhaps most guidance got rid of that ferocious dry slot that developed on most American guidance but not the A-Teams, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 So all looks good for a widespread 10-20" with lollies….main concern will be the speed of the super dry air ripping through Sun. afternoon....I could see this being under-modeled, and shut off the significant qpf sooner than modeled. If so, go with lower end of the spread. Niagara frontier, as well as Sandy Creek (Oswego Co.) north, will see less than 10". My call for major cities: Buffalo: 11" Rochester: 16" Syracuse: 18" Binghamton: 17" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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