rochesterdave Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 GEFS back NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 18, 2019 Author Share Posted January 18, 2019 Todays event over performed here, over 2" on the ground this morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 22 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: I would love another tick NW right before go time and 50-75 miles will suffice! That track through NY harbor/ Long Island is always the winner for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Looks like the Meso's went back NW! After last nights breakdown, lol, we are back on track for a very nice event so it seems unless we can get a tick or 2 to the NW right before go time and I really like what LEK said about an earlier closure of the upper lvls and then it'd really be something! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charlee4615 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Nam looks poised to come west and north and be closer to euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Yea the 6z icon trended towrds the euro/para with a track through cnj.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Looks like the Nam is about 150 mile further North this run, lol, just a couple hundred miles in 1 run, lol! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Now finally it looks like a consensus amongst models, my God what a roller-coaster ride this week has been and its still not over, lol, but I doubt we see anything like we saw last night I don't think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charlee4615 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 So nam is certainly still having trouble with low placement as seen by the several hundred mile jump of the low south and then back north. The good news is that it looks like a cave if I ever saw one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Its been snowing here since about 4:30 and I'm workin on 2" so far. Was forecasted but we may exceed 3" for the day its lookin like. Looks like WNY may see the same. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, Charlee4615 said: So nam is certainly still having trouble with low placement as seen by the several hundred mile jump of the low south and then back north. The good news is that it looks like a cave if I ever saw one. Definitely big time and what has been leading the way the whole time, THE FV3, as even the EURO was further South with the SLP until 00Z and I still think it has to make a bit more of an adjustment so we'll see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charlee4615 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 4 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Definitely big time and what has been leading the way the whole time, THE FV3, as even the EURO was further South with the SLP until 00Z and I still think it has to make a bit more of an adjustment so we'll see! I think we see a pretty widespread 14-20 inches. Depending on how the next 12 hours go,I could maybe—and I stress maybe—get behind 18-24 for my ithaca/cortland area. I’m not ruling it out yet...as Rgem looks great and Hrdps looks great as well now. With ratios high, my fingers are certainly crossed! Edit: hell, I know you have to take it with a big grain of salt, but even accuweather has been fluctuating us from a 20% to 25% chance of greater than 24 inches! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Charlee, do you go to Cornell? Are you a meteorology major? I went to Cornell back when Ezra Cornell was still walking around campus, lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 This will continue to worry me until i see otherwise lol It`s also worth noting that temperatures this cold often result in very small snowflakes which effectively lower visibility but do not accumulate quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charlee4615 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, CNY_WX said: Charlee, do you go to Cornell? Are you a meteorology major? I went to Cornell back when Ezra Cornell was still walking around campus, lol. Yes to Cornell, sadly no to meteorology major. Law student here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 I was an engineering major but I almost transferred to meteorology. Spent a lot of time in Bradfield Hall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 18, 2019 Author Share Posted January 18, 2019 Whoever gets in on that FGEN band and the deform band with little let up in between will get 8+ inches I think. Near the state line I'd worry about missing that FGEN band but they should see higher rates with the main low. We should be okay here in Upstate. Northern PA/Southern NY has to worry though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Nice damming signature over NewEngland with that Banana high to our North, but they slop anyway! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Huge adjustment North as was expected from the NAM 12KM 06z 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Has Rochester seen any snow today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charlee4615 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Wow new rgem is exactly what we wanted to see here 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 rgem looks nice and amplified 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, CNY-WXFREAK said: Has Rochester seen any snow today? A fluffy inch w/light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said: rgem looks nice and amplified holy shit! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 NWS totals creeping up again...(clink on the image...thumbnail is old for some reason). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorizer Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 So I have to submit an estimate for a snow pool at 2pm today. Closest to the tenth of an inch without going over at Albany Airport. I'd be interested in any thoughts from you guys. I'm thinking somewhere around 20, but naturally I'm waiting on the 12z runs before pulling the trigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 WSW messaging enhancing... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 913 AM EST Fri Jan 18 2019 NYZ002>005-011-013-014-182215- /O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0002.190119T1800Z-190120T2300Z/ Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Genesee-Livingston-Ontario- Including the cities of Medina, Rochester, Newark, Fair Haven, Batavia, Geneseo, and Canandaigua 913 AM EST Fri Jan 18 2019 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 10 to 17 inches expected. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Orleans, Monroe, Wayne, Northern Cayuga, Genesee, Livingston, and Ontario counties. * WHEN...From 1 PM Saturday to 6 PM EST Sunday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Snow 10-1" and we know its gonna be a bit more so..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 12z NAM LP placement at 42hr isn't that far off from the RGEM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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