BuffaloWeather Posted January 18, 2019 Author Share Posted January 18, 2019 Wagons south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 How 'bout that NAM?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 39 minutes ago, Stash said: One of those rare times a north or south shift hasn't mattered much to us. Most on this subforum are in Western/Central NY, but we're looking good here in Eastern Upstate. I still can't buy the well over a foot totals on a fast moving SWFE type storm however. Yeah Capital District has been sweet spot on most of the model outputs that I've seen thus far. I foresee jackpots in the high terrain along the I-88 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Gfs pretty much same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Do we have to toss the whole 00Z suite? GFS is horrific for sure? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 A week of amazing runs and then the day before............lol Never fails. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 BUF - 6” ROC - 8” SYR - 8” Bummer after multiple runs of region wide 12”+ amounts. Usual lesson for synoptic, at least in WNY, to always assume 6” ceiling until inside 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Gfs looks almost same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Not tossing anything. I posted an important study in the NE forum. I am become Satan the destroyer of worlds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 I ain't changing my thinking at all on this one and I'm certain the intermountain region is causing havoc with tonights initialization so Ill revisit these models at 12Z tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Canadian farther south and lesser totals for much of us too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: I ain't changing my thinking at all on this one and I'm certain the intermountain region is causing havoc with tonights initialization so Ill revisit these models at 12Z tomorrow! You mean when they have us down to 4 inches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: You mean when they have us down to 4 inches? The last time the Canadian model got anything right was the Blizzard of '88. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Keeps roc the same 10 inches at 10 to 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Well look on the bright side, it all washes away next week anyway when a nice rainer rolls through mid week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 00Z models usually jog south due to Froude value displacement and Gaussian distribution vectorized distributions. The NAM instantiates from millenial overwrite errors in the mid level subroutine call functions. That's the Tip. Well documented in the literature. Wait till 12Z! Wagons North. : 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, Buffalo Bumble said: Well look on the bright side, it all washes away next week anyway when a nice rainer rolls through mid week Lol...winter 18-19 rolls on...snow and below zero and then a thaw the next day to screw it up. I thought we were going into a very cold pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, Syrmax said: 00Z models usually jog south due to Froude value displacement and Gaussian distribution vectorized distributions. The NAM instantiates from millenial overwrite errors in the mid level subroutine call functions. That's the Tip. Well documented in the literature. Wait till 12Z! Wagons North. : Did you copy and paste this from Typhoon Tip in the NE forum? I understand about 30% of it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 10 minutes ago, Syrmax said: The last time the Canadian model got anything right was the Blizzard of '88. It must have taken a month to run on the Analytical Engine. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Did you copy and paste this from Typhoon Tip in the NE forum? I understand about 30% of it. There's nothing to understand. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 18, 2019 Author Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Lol...winter 18-19 rolls on...snow and below zero and then a thaw the next day to screw it up. I thought we were going into a very cold pattern? The overall pattern is much colder then normal but that does not mean we don't get warm ups every now and then. Upstate has lots of thaws throughout a normal winter, especially lower elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 FV3 will save the day. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Im waving the white flag on this winter. Miss to the south, rain next week. Biggest snow this year has been 3" and its almost February, bring on spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Gfs v3 looks good at hr 30 1 mb deeper over arkansas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorizer Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 32 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: Yeah Capital District has been sweet spot on most of the model outputs that I've seen thus far. I foresee jackpots in the high terrain along the I-88 corridor. That would be my driveway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: The overall pattern is much colder then normal but that does not mean we don't get warm ups every now and then. Upstate has lots of thaws throughout a normal winter, especially lower elevations. Maybe I should have moved to da UP..... the Tug has had snow and thaws that turn it to ice for the past two months..been an awful pattern. Trails are still barely rideable. Do not want more rain to ruin it AGAIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 7 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Lol...winter 18-19 rolls on...snow and below zero and then a thaw the next day to screw it up. I thought we were going into a very cold pattern? We are not headed into a cold pattern, other than transient. These zipperheads pushing SSWs and PV "fractures" are the same dopes running the Tropic Thunder model that the NYC and NE forums cling to like ticks on a zit, with Ben Stiller as Chief Programmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 18, 2019 Author Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said: Maybe I should have moved to da UP..... the Tug has had snow and thaws that turn it to ice for the past two months..been an awful pattern. Trails are still barely rideable. Do not want more rain to ruin it AGAIN. Yeah if you're looking for consistent snow cover the UP is definitely a better spot. But they don't get big synoptic or LES storms like the Tug. But you're a snowcover guy that loves the cold and hates the warmth. They are colder then the tug in the winter and much colder in summer, sometimes they stay in the 60s for highs in june-aug which is terrible to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 991 over eastern Long Island Sound at 12z Sunday. Edit: I meant western Long Island Sound. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 I've wasted way too many hours tracking this jackazz system when I could have been stock trading my azz off and making coin to throw at losers on the streets. SMH. It's all a fugazi outside 48 hrs. Every single time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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