CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Kuchera puts us at about 18-24" easy this run from the Euro with ratios but thats the big question but temps are above the critical temp of 15F during the height of the storm so we're geed wrt snow growth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 I'll leave this right here.. Obviously taken with a cup of salt.. Avg ratios of about 20-1.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorizer Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: So it seems the Euro keeps the taint well south & east of the Capital District. My head spinning. But I guess it is for all of us really. What a yoyo week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 6 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: 1.3" KROC and KSYR 1.3" @ 15-20/1", well its a very very nice event indeed any you get to take down that Avatar finally! LOL. You may not like the replacement. The Devil you know...;) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, Gorizer said: So it seems the Euro keeps the taint well south & east of the Capital District. My head spinning. But I guess it is for all of us really. What a yoyo week. You're in Delanson...you should be safe. If it does taint itll be brief. 10-20 miles south in the HV may lose a few hours of pure snow. At worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: I'll leave this right here.. Obviously taken with a cup of salt.. Avg ratios of about 20-1.. I know it looks crazy but it can happen and I'm serious. Its not like we're 3 days away and this is spitting this out and we call it a clown map but its the day before. My question, is what is the ratio for those specific locations 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattny88 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Awesome cnylesfreak Whats the likelihood of this euro verifying behind were 24 hours out now from the first flakes flying from this storm? You also said thats the big ? What were you referring to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, mattny88 said: Awesome cnylesfreak Whats the likelihood of this euro verifying behind were 24 hours out now from the first flakes flying from this storm? You also said thats the big ? What were you referring to? That map doesn't exactly tell you what the ratios actually are unless there's equation which I think there is if I'm not mistaken, I'll have to find it somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 5 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: I know it looks crazy but it can happen and I'm serious. Its not like we're 3 days away and this is spitting this out and we call it a clown map but its the day before. My question, is what is the ratio for those specific locations 20:1 sounds high, but even if ave, say 1:17, still talking a 2 footer with major drifting. Blizzard Warning for sure outta KBUF for the south shore ctys...you know they're thinking about it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charlee4615 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 I mean it’s not like the euro doesn’t have support. Short term guidance, both rgem and hrdps, actually show a tick more than the euro as far as totals...so pool them together and I think we can moderate the risk of a bust! edit: also add fv3 having a tick more once ratios are added. That’s a compelling suite of models now saying 20-26 inches... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattny88 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 W the snow ratips included in that last map w the kuchera sitting at 20:1 ratios thst could very well happen and be max totals and best case scenario..northwest cayuga/sw/central oswego seem to he the bullseye... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Now I don't think an area that big sees all over 24", lol, I'm not crazy but a lot of places will see those totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 It's about whether or not you trust the ratios, has nothing to do with the euro verbatim. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Man of my word! Lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattny88 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 i am loving this guys....?? when do you think NWS Buffalo will upgrade their amounts seeing that the models have changed or do you think they will still air on the side of being conservative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Dave your supposed to wait until it verified, if it goes down the shitter we no who to blame.. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 20 minutes ago, mattny88 said: Cnywxfreak thanks..but i thought the wind flow was suppose to be more of a northerly component to even n-ne..wouldnt that favor sodus bay pts west to Roc vs oswego..bwcause we usually get good lake enchanced of mpre of a wnw flow...nne flpw for us doesnt have the whole length of the lake to carry moisture i dont believe as opposed to those parts It doesn't need the whole length of the lake during a synoptic as it just enhances the snow rates and the bands are not visible so you won't even know, lol! The further North this system gets then the better chance for winds to veer into the NNW then eventually NW so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: It's about whether or not you trust the ratios, has nothing to do with the euro verbatim. It's one of thee hardest variables to pinpoint cause of so many layers and the conditions have to be just right! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, mattny88 said: i am loving this guys....?? when do you think NWS Buffalo will upgrade their amounts seeing that the models have changed or do you think they will still air on the side of being conservative They already have adjusted them...at least for the Niagara Frontier.. They mention the northward shift of the banding on Meso models and have increased accumulation due to that and dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Still liking KBUF's old snow map (yesterday - thumbnail only)... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charlee4615 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: It's about whether or not you trust the ratios, has nothing to do with the euro verbatim. I mean I think we can confidently say the ratios will be better than 10:1. Yet, even a 10:1 ratio brings 14-17inch amounts throughout the area on the rgem, fv3, hrdps, and almost on the euro. So if those verify we wouldn’t even need to approach 20:1 ratios before a lot of us hit 20 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 18, 2019 Author Share Posted January 18, 2019 No one is getting 2 feet with an overrunning event with no phase. That is unless ratios are very high or the lake kicks in quite a bit of extra juice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 I said, “first big one”. I coulda waited but Freak has been up for 3 days straight and having to look at my mug will drive anyone postal. It was a preemptive move to avoid catastrophe. Lol. Going to Bristol boys. Keep the board warm for me! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, rochesterdave said: Going to Bristol boys. A day or 2 early! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 WOW, lol! The double jet structure looking proper for some super lift! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 10 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: No one is getting 2 feet with an overrunning event with no phase. That is unless ratios are very high or the lake kicks in quite a bit of extra juice. Yeah, OK!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, CNY-WXFREAK said: WOW, lol! The double jet structure looking proper for some super lift! Right-entrance region as well. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 I know this was posted earlier but just noticed kbuf mentioned snow ratios.. As the upper wave approaches by the evening Saturday, a curved coupled upper jet crosses the region concurrent with the arrival of a fairly deep deformation band and frontogenetical maxima that seem to be largely co-located with the dendritic growth zone. This should allow for rapidly increasing snow-to-liquid ratios (from about 20:1 over the northern CWA to about 14:1 over the southern portions of the CWA) by the evening hours as the best forcing for ascent arrives into the Southern Tier, then proceeds northward toward the Buffalo/Rochester area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Tomorrow evening, after say 7:00PM when everyone is inside except the sicko's going to the Dome to see the Cuse play as they may in fact be stuck sleeping in the dome, lol! I would laugh my azz off if that ever happened, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, wolfie09 said: I know this was posted earlier but just notice kbuf mentioned snow ratios.. As the upper wave approaches by the evening Saturday, a curved coupled upper jet crosses the region concurrent with the arrival of a fairly deep deformation band and frontogenetical maxima that seem to be largely co-located with the dendritic growth zone. This should allow for rapidly increasing snow-to-liquid ratios (from about 20:1 over the northern CWA to about 14:1 over the southern portions of the CWA) by the evening hours as the best forcing for ascent arrives into the Southern Tier, then proceeds northward toward the Buffalo/Rochester area. The newly arrived 12z NAM has taken yet another northward jaunt to largely match with the 00z ECMWF and 06z Canadian, leaving the GFS a southerly outlying solution. With further support from the SREF, this has necessitated an uptick in snow amounts essentially south of the Thruway over western New York as well as in the North Country. As such, Jefferson County was upgraded to a winter storm warning. Thats us at 20/1" but I just hope its not that grainy stuff and if it is then all bets are off for 2ft totals so we'll see, as I think the temps came up enough, to put us in the sweet spot as far as ratios are concerned. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now