• Member Statistics

    15,683
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    RB1986
    Newest Member
    RB1986
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
Typhoon Tip

January 2019 Discussion II

Recommended Posts

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Not to be a "beyotch" ... but, I don't think this is climate rearing it's head as much as a "glitch in the matrix" 

I just think this is a statistical aberration along a climate that's not only already changed...but is still changing.  Possibly said "aberration" is related causally to the latter - like ... growing pains. 

I think the climate change is affecting/effecting eastern North America too... I probably roll-eyes in the local users more so than raise eyebrows saying that - understood.  But, increased snow fall is a part of a warmer atmosphere. 

See...folks think that warmth means warm days - ... it does...or, "can" we should say.  But that's more like 50 ...100, 200 years into the future that you can count on D.C. weather in Boston.  In the interim, there's enough cold around that increasing the ambient theta-e mass due to the atmosphere being warmer, will cause increased rain and snow fall.  The climate models have been indicating this since these models have been committed to super computers and we're probably just experiencing our flavor of that from D.C. to Maine.  

No.... it's just my opinion, but... I suggest this year has just been dumb luck for lack of simpler dialogue on the matter.  Maybe "bad luck" is part of yours/the bigger climate picture for New England?  Sure... fine. No problem believing in a kosmik dildo pump quota. I've lived here long enough to be on both the receiving and delivery end of that fortune.  Excluding that factor for a moment, it is possible this year (even...holy shit imagine that...) to have one of these cold air mass actually time well with one or two of these bigger QPF bombs and suddenly you go from in shit to in charge in a real hurry. 

I know I know ...it's just impossible to see reality through the lenz of unmitigated sore-buttness but you just have to higher a masseuse and keep a chin up and a stolid objectivity in the face of all tormented hells... It's called bravery I suppose.  

Oh I wasn't trying to go the climate change route. My point was that there are reasons why we don't average these exorbitant amounts that we've racked up over the last 20 years. Call it whatever you want, but Mother Nature eventually evens things out. I agree with your luck thoughts...that's all part of the matrix. :lol: 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
30 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

He’s exposed himself as a fraud troll on here multiple times . He’s a high school kid with an ax to grind 

well... careful, Kevin - 

Careful not to impugn "high school students" ... some are decent.   And I've been on-line in various capacities long enough to have experienced a broad pallet of different leverls in function and dysfunction among the public.  

In other words, there are adults the do the same damn shit.  

But the "ax to grind" sure -

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Oh I wasn't trying to go the climate change route. My point was that there are reasons why we don't average these exorbitant amounts that we've racked up over the last 20 years. Call it whatever you want, but Mother Nature eventually evens things out. I agree with your luck thoughts...that's all part of the matrix. :lol: 

Yeah... but I almost think that a "normal" year in this post climate change (and still changing era) is a different expectation than 30 years ago even.  

I just wonder if a normal snow in a theta-e rich atmosphere that flirts with cold snaps is more like extremely dry versus extremely snowy ...with less dependable pedestrian total years.   But mm... it's a murky speculative conjecture so whatever.   

fascinating..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What’s everyones thoughts on the pattern going forward? Any chance of a decent snow in sne anytime soon or do we seem to be stuck in this pattern? It would be nice to have something to track 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Massplow said:

What’s everyones thoughts on the pattern going forward? Any chance of a decent snow in sne anytime soon or do we seem to be stuck in this pattern? It would be nice to have something to track 

The big picture after early next week is one that is both something that has been great to us before, and one that has had a lot of snow--->rain type deals.  Nothing screams terrible, so that's about all you can say. Details yet to be determined. At some point, I would think something needs to go our way. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

MJO ...  heh, the present panoply of guidance wrt to the WH are behaving virtually in a dead ringer to what happened a month ago. 

The NCEPian cluster is soaring the wave so powerfully through 7 as to suggest the Earth's rotation rate changes due to torque exertion... Meanwhile, the Euro seems to think the wave stops on a dime within a week from now  ... and collapses through the event horizon of that inner COD region.   

Which is it... ?

Probably right smack dead in the middle ...which is pretty much what happened three weeks ago, too.  The Euro agonizingly unfurled it's wave outlook through phase 7 ... eventually through 8.. And the GEFs came back from orbit to a more middling wave presentation through the same space/magnitudes.  

Which means, ...if history can be even a partial indicator/prognostic tool...we might be pushing a late Phase 7-8-1 MJO wave through an atmosphere that won't except it's forcing and cancels it out anyway  :axe: 

Thanks for playin -

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

MJO ...  heh, the present panoply of guidance wrt to the WH are behaving virtually in a dead ringer to what happened a month ago. 

The NCEPian cluster is soaring the wave so powerfully through 7 as to suggest the Earth's rotation rate changes due to torque exertion... Meanwhile, the Euro seems to think the wave stops on a dime within a week from now  ... and collapses through the event horizon of that inner COD region.   

Which is it... ?

Probably right smack dead in the middle ...which is pretty much what happened three weeks ago, too.  The Euro agonizingly unfurled it's wave outlook through phase 7 ... eventually through 8.. And the GEFs came back from orbit to a more middling wave presentation through the same space/magnitudes.  

Which means, ...if history can be even a partial indicator/prognostic tool...we might be pushing a late Phase 7-8-1 MJO wave through an atmosphere that won't except it's forcing and cancels it out anyway  :axe: 

Thanks for playin -

So lets draw a line from Mitch, to Dendrite, to Saddleback/Sunday River. If you are east of that line winter sucks if you are west of that line, winter is still fantastic...very predictable pattern...onto to 2020

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

winter is far from over and will likely have snowy feb and march for sne area . nao is coming too . good luck to those that think winter is over its not and that why peope dont get there forecast from tv stations to much same thing all the time . best weather person is brad field and jb . you have to stick to your forecast not change every model run like some do .  i expect still above normal snowfall for sne area and big apple .

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, blizzard24 said:

winter is far from over and will likely have snowy feb and march for sne area . nao is coming too . good luck to those that think winter is over its not and that why peope dont get there forecast from tv stations to much same thing all the time . best weather person is brad field and jb . you have to stick to your forecast not change every model run like some do .  i expect still above normal snowfall for sne area and big apple .

What about RH?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, blizzard24 said:

winter is far from over and will likely have snowy feb and march for sne area . nao is coming too . good luck to those that think winter is over its not and that why peope dont get there forecast from tv stations to much same thing all the time . best weather person is brad field and jb . you have to stick to your forecast not change every model run like some do .  i expect still above normal snowfall for sne area and big apple .

You and James need to room together

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, blizzard24 said:

winter is far from over and will likely have snowy feb and march for sne area . nao is coming too . good luck to those that think winter is over its not and that why peope dont get there forecast from tv stations to much same thing all the time . best weather person is brad field and jb . you have to stick to your forecast not change every model run like some do .  i expect still above normal snowfall for sne area and big apple .

William, I remember when you said the same thing in late January 2002.  You were blizzard22 then.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Oh I wasn't trying to go the climate change route. My point was that there are reasons why we don't average these exorbitant amounts that we've racked up over the last 20 years. Call it whatever you want, but Mother Nature eventually evens things out. I agree with your luck thoughts...that's all part of the matrix. :lol: 

I think that there is a decent shot that we will not see a winter with average temps and this kind of precip surplus yield so little snow at this latitude again in our lifetime.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think that there is a decent shot that we will not see a winter with average temps and this kind of precip surplus yield so little snow at this latitude again in our lifetime.

I don’t beleive we will see another winter with these temps and this precipitation surplus.

and if we did, I absolutely agree it’s bound to snow much more.

The pacific has not been good and Atlantic has  blown balls.

seems to me the pattern has always looked good 10 days out  But in reality the pattern never has been stellar inside day 5. 

Serviceable , Ok. Should we have more ...yes. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I don’t beleive we will see another winter with these temps and this precipitation surplus.

and if we did, I absolutely agree it’s bound to snow much more.

The pacific and Atlantic have blown balls.

seems to me the pattern has always looked good 10 days out and if we’re looking at “dealer cards” from that perspective ya.. the dealer is putting up 20’s. But in reality the pattern never has been stellar inside day 5. we are putting up 14’s 15’ and the dealer is putting up 16’s and 17’s.

I still won't be surprised to sneak a major event in or even a very good stretch, but I'm growing pretty confident that my outlook sucks azz. I don't really care to discuss right now whether it looks worse than it really is, but the bottom line is that its probably wrong.

I think this is just a fluke season, and my thoughts RE weak el nino remain unchanged.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I still won't be surprised to sneak a major event in or even a very good stretch, but  I'm growing pretty confident that my outlook sucks azz. I don't really care to discuss right now whether it looks worse than it really is, but the bottom line is that its probably wrong.

Agreed on first sentence and last one 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This season and 2015 are both once in a lifetime imo.

So far no widespread nickel/dime events for SNE which is almost unheard of this deep into winter.  I am at about 19" mostly from 2 storms with a couple of .5" events sprinkled in.  Tomorrow should continue that trend here.  How can it be so difficult to get 1-3" snow events?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This season and 2015 are both once in a lifetime imo.

Most people don’t want to realize while experiencing the rare bliss of a 2015 the anomaly can end up on the opposite side of the spectrum. Once in a lifetime heaven or hell.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said:

Most people don’t want to realize while experiencing the rare bliss of a 2015 the anomaly can end up on the opposite side of the spectrum. Once in a lifetime heaven or hell.

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This season and 2015 are both once in a lifetime imo.

Meh...it's January. 40-50" in Feb/Mar for BOS would be a good run and make the season pretty much forgettable.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Meh...it's January. 40-50" in Feb/Mar for BOS would be a good run and make the season pretty much forgettable.

Yes, I still think that's more likely than not, but the longer range looking eerily similar to a month ago is uncanny....of course given that same evolution, we probably score a few events.

We'll see.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 1/27/2019 at 9:04 AM, Typhoon Tip said:

That actually happened to me, here ...in SNE ...  My proclivity for forgetfulness with weather events and their dates has me at a loss as to what winter it was... but it was a recent one.  I left my iPhone on the front passenger seat of my car while at the gym.  One hour work out, came out ... phone was unresponsive.  I hadn't ever considered any limitations related to temperature and that particular technology, but I know first hand that there is some form of temperature band-width.  I wonder if there is an upper bound for that matter.  Interesting.. What I do recall was the temperature being -6 F on the dash-indicator.  An hour later ... while sitting in a warm cozy office chair, sipping a Gatorade and deflating over mindless web pap on my PC ... the interface of the phone starts glowing ...then, pops back to life with, the standard fare of icons working again.

If my iPhone got punch drunk at -6 ... they're gonna be in a comms black out up there, one might wonder. 

It's an example of how technology is effecting sociologically ... For a myriad of other reasons aside, civility becoming increasingly reliant upon the Internet, and/or the general WAN of a wired society ... that mere daily functioning becomes (as an aside, 'dangerously') dependent upon it - so much so that one could conceive a scenario where a 'state of emergency' has to be issue, because that dependency becomes inaccessible too acutely and quickly to adjust ... rendering a break-down in public safety on multiple levels.

It's funny ...putting it into perspective... For all conceits of man and how their ingenuity creates marvels ... a cold day cripples. This and these regional inconveniences ... they can serve as a nice microcosmic example of fragility, exposing how vulnerability is just there ... beyond the faux walls of technological conveniences that keep us preoccupied.

It's funny, I believe humanity is more vulnerable now than they were during the Golden Age, because of how vulnerable and dependent we are on technology.  Back during the Classical Era people tended to be more resourceful, now they resort to their phone calculators to do basic math.  Put someone out in the middle of nowhere with no cell phone service and it would be painful watching them trying to navigate their way back home.  I shudder to think what a massive solar storm (like a Carrington Event) would do to them and to our infrastructure.

Technology also makes young brains more vulnerable- studies are showing that the iGen has significant brain structure differences because of information overload from a very young age, though what this will lead to in the future, no one knows yet.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes, I still think that's more likely than not, but the longer range looking eerily similar to a month ago is uncanny....of course given that same evolution, we probably score a few events.

We'll see.

There is probably some sort of feedback going on where the same pattern repeats itself.  That happened in 2014-15 and probably this year also.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not to be a "beyotch" ... but, I don't think this is climate rearing it's head as much as a "glitch in the matrix" 

I just think this is a statistical aberration along a climate that's not only already changed...but is still changing.  Possibly said "aberration" is related causally to the latter - like ... growing pains. 

I think the climate change is affecting/effecting eastern North America too... I probably roll-eyes in the local users more so than raise eyebrows saying that - understood.  But, increased snow fall is a part of a warmer atmosphere. 

See...folks think that warmth means warm days - ... it does...or, "can" we should say.  But that's more like 50 ...100, 200 years into the future that you can count on D.C. weather in Boston.  In the interim, there's enough cold around that increasing the ambient theta-e mass due to the atmosphere being warmer, will cause increased rain and snow fall.  The climate models have been indicating this since these models have been committed to super computers and we're probably just experiencing our flavor of that from D.C. to Maine.  

No.... it's just my opinion, but... I suggest this year has just been dumb luck for lack of simpler dialogue on the matter.  Maybe "bad luck" is part of yours/the bigger climate picture for New England?  Sure... fine. No problem believing in a kosmik dildo pump quota. I've lived here long enough to be on both the receiving and delivery end of that fortune.  Excluding that factor for a moment, it is possible this year (even...holy shit imagine that...) to have one of these cold air mass actually time well with one or two of these bigger QPF bombs and suddenly you go from in shit to in charge in a real hurry. 

I know I know ...it's just impossible to see reality through the lenz of unmitigated sore-buttness but you just have to higher a masseuse and keep a chin up and a stolid objectivity in the face of all tormented hells... It's called bravery I suppose.  

It's interesting because most of the climate models show that the most changes should be occurring the closer you are to the poles and the closer you are to the ocean/land interface.  Thats the reason the Arctic has been warming much faster than the Antarctic for example and why Chicago has had extreme record winter lows while NYC has not.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 1/27/2019 at 10:18 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Europe has been cold but that isn't where the largest chunk of it went....

 

IMG_2341.PNG

Having lived through the 80s when it was much colder and much less snowy, I can tell you that extreme cold is not what we want (it causes suppression).  Average cold with a strong southern stream and Greenland blocking is much better.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 1/27/2019 at 2:39 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

I've seen it before ... several times...

Hell, it was 9 F at dawn one faithful morning in late January, 1994 ...and it was 64 at 11 pm with howling southerly gales that very same evening up and UML.

We did that inside of the same 12 to 18 hours let alone 2 or 3 days.  There are others in the old rolladex of memories.... Granted, it may not be that common -

I guess your 'magnitude' part didn't resonate as loudly with me.

Yes I remember that well!  Here we started out at 0 F (the second Arctic outbreak to do that in the same month!) and we were at 32 F by midnight and 58 F the next day with a rainstorm.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.