Ericjcrash Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 17 minutes ago, Zelocita Weather said: 6-10 for near suburbs, never getting above freezing per NWS, strange rainstorm. Strange forecast. Nothing shows that. Even if CAD hangs on it's still warm aloft and liquid falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Strange forecast. Nothing shows that. Even if CAD hangs on it's still warm aloft and liquid falling.Don't be so defensive brother, we know where you stand. If you are correct, I will be happy to publically congratulate you. Likewise you have been steadfast with your forecast, and that's admirable. At this point, we can all agree to disagree and see what happens.(for the record, take the tone as friendly. I hate how tone can be misinterpreted via text) Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Strange forecast. Nothing shows that. Even if CAD hangs on it's still warm aloft and liquid falling. In all fairness Eric I don't think the NWS made it up and they are privy to models and info that we don't see. I mean if anything you would think the NWS would down play this IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 https://digital.weather.gov/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 hour ago, Ericjcrash said: Oh no? Comes in as 37° rain for NYC, ends as freezing drizzle. I don’t think Central Park goes above 32 tomorrow. At least until the precipitation moves in. I’m just making this call from my weather observation skills. I may be wrong but I think we wetbulb to about 30 degrees tomorrow evening when it initially snows and it’ll come in like a wall before any apparent change over to mix and rain. This could be a freezing rain type of deal too the models are not 100% not even at this range. But it does look like 3-6 for Central Park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 hour ago, Ericjcrash said: ICON like everything else is a rainstorm, however it puts NYC well below 0 Monday morning . It starts NYC off at 37F before the storm and ends at below zero. Yeah that's gonna be a no for me dawg. You're not gonna start higher than 31/32F especially if you're wet bulbing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: It starts NYC off at 37F before the storm and ends at below zero. Yeah that's gonna be a no for me dawg. You're not gonna start higher than 31/32F especially if you're wet bulbing. Dew points are going to be low. Precip should start as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, Snow88 said: Dew points are going to be low. Precip should start as snow. I agree. Doubt it holds on long but hopefully it rips for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 hour ago, allgame830 said: Oh yea because we all trust the ICON... dude seriously all you have done the past day is post when a model showed anything other then frozen pecip. No way NYC is 37 at the start not even close. This is the 3k NAM at onset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
24Silverhawk Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 I see 6-10" for NYC and Long Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, 24Silverhawk said: I see 6-10" for NYC and Long Island Based on what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 13 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said: Based on what? And I'm thinking max 1-3 then slop then freezing. That's how these things usually play out in these parts. My BIL in ME, though, might be a hurtin cowboy...then again it's Maine. Believe it or not, many people there hate snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomcatct Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 14 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said: Based on what? Based on Anthony being able to get his weather machine working again....///??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 16 minutes ago, 24Silverhawk said: I see 6-10" for NYC and Long Island No, it won't rain that much, maybe an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 I see 6-10" for NYC and Long IslandImo this is a very plausible scenario stillSent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 My call is 4-8 for Central Park now. Based on my observations this call is 4-8 of slop from Central Park up to White Plains, NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 13 minutes ago, USCG RS said: Imo this is a very plausible scenario still Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk You certainly have not let up from saying that this would be colder even for NYC and you deserve credit for that bust or not.... kudos to you. Hope your right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 18Z Euro is warmer yet again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 8 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: 18Z Euro is warmer yet again. Yup coast starts as rain and stays as rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Oh well, what's going to be is what is going to be. Let's see what the mesos say tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 This storm is going to be very close for the area. I can see it go either way in regards to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: This storm is going to be very close for the area. I can see it go either way in regards to snow. My rule of thumb is to err on the side of less snow, and it has usually been correct. We just don't live in a snow magnet. I would be more surprised to see 3-5 than to see all rain. Of course, I was wrong in Nov. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 14 minutes ago, BlizzardNYC said: Yup coast starts as rain and stays as rain The only part of the coast that I can see starting as rain is the Jersey shore..... I highly doubt the south shore of LI does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 You certainly have not let up from saying that this would be colder even for NYC and you deserve credit for that bust or not.... kudos to you. Hope your right!Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 20 minutes ago, BlizzardNYC said: Yup coast starts as rain and stays as rain Every model starts off as snow with the low dew points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, USCG RS said: Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk I used to work on a fishing boat. After the Joan La Rie sank off the Jersey coast and the captain went down with the ship, my cap said "I'm old fashioned, but the heck with that sh...." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 hours ago, Brasiluvsnow said: In all fairness Eric I don't think the NWS made it up and they are privy to models and info that we don't see. I mean if anything you would think the NWS would down play this IMO. More than just that. We read models. In theory they use models. Doesn't mean they aren't off now and then, but there are people with the job title of "forecaster". Not aware of any job reqs for "model reader". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 14 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Every model starts off as snow with the low dew points. I am not disagreeing with you, was just stating what the 18z euro showed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 28 minutes ago, allgame830 said: The only part of the coast that I can see starting as rain is the Jersey shore..... I highly doubt the south shore of LI does. The Euro really drags its heels getting precip in. To be honest that’s a big reason it’s snow totals are so darn low. Not necessarily that it’s a ton west or north of the NAM because it isn’t. If no steady precip gets in til 01-02Z then most places near the coast probably to sleet and freezing rain almost right away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 14 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The Euro really drags its heels getting precip in. To be honest that’s a big reason it’s snow totals are so darn low. Not necessarily that it’s a ton west or north of the NAM because it isn’t. If no steady precip gets in til 01-02Z then most places near the coast probably to sleet and freezing rain almost right away Ahh gotcha. Makes sense. If we can start by 5pm. I would think the City and western portions of LI would do OK. @SnowGoose69 what’s your feeling for Northern Westchester? Stay all frozen or nah? Possible 6”? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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