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Winter Storm? Jan 18-19th, 2019


cyclone77

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2 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Yeah I actually feel kind of guilty cashing in on this one.  Our luck has certainly changed from that rough stretch from 11/12 to 13/14 when we went 3 winters in a row without a warning criteria snow.  I feel for ya man!  Here's hoping you guys cash in as we go forward.  In regards to this storm I am very happy to see the central Ohio peeps finally cash in on a biggie.

Naw don't feel guilty. I'm happy for ya man. This never looked good here except when it was like a week out. It slowly went to crap for my area. Ha. Can't win them all. Just started snowing here. Winds picking up. Wonder if that dry slot in MO will impact me or if this band can keep sliding east from Iowa

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I measured only 2.2" just before 10pm.  With the decent snow(we never got heavy rates) nearly done, I'm guessing 4" is the most I'll be able to measure in the morning, the very bottom of the possible range.  Locals were thinking 6-8".  Model qpf with decent ratios suggested more as well.  This has been a disappointment.

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4 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

This is kind of interesting.  The LOT radar still doesn't have any returns here and yet it's a nice light snow out my window.

--That happened with me last week  There was even about an hour of nearly 0 DBZ and some of the the biggest flakes of the event were flying at decent rates.

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7 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Naw don't feel guilty. I'm happy for ya man. This never looked good here except when it was like a week out. It slowly went to crap for my area. Ha. Can't win them all. Just started snowing here. Winds picking up. Wonder if that dry slot in MO will impact me or if this band can keep sliding east from Iowa

models of now current trends weaken the precipitation as precipitation blossoms south...its already breaking up some....but looks semi-convective,,

 

to our SW

 

1225 AM     SNOW             2 SSE MACOMB            40.44N 90.67W  
01/19/2019  M2.5 INCH        MCDONOUGH          IL   TRAINED SPOTTER    
  
            STILL SNOWING. 

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13 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

This is kind of interesting.  The LOT radar still doesn't have any returns here and yet it's a nice light snow out my window.

Sounding off the HRRR for you I think right around this time frame.  Decent DGZ but not a lot to reflect back?  I don't know worth a shot.

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29 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

models of now current trends weaken the precipitation as precipitation blossoms south...its already breaking up some....but looks semi-convective,,

 

to our SW

 

1225 AM     SNOW             2 SSE MACOMB            40.44N 90.67W  
01/19/2019  M2.5 INCH        MCDONOUGH          IL   TRAINED SPOTTER    
  
            STILL SNOWING. 

Not expecting much at all. These bands won't be here long and the stuff to the west is light. We will be lucky to see 2-3in. If that

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3 hours ago, Baum said:

With all due respect you had a prof met who works for the NWS out of LOT and within shouting distance of your location say he 's hoping for 4-6" and your talking about a shut out...the negativity is over the top sometimes. It may bust. It happens. But after tracking for 5 days and throwing in the towel as it commences without support is uncalled for. I'm guessing you'll fall into the 3"-6" window.

I think you may have misunderstood my post, which I take blame for. I meant "temporary shutout" as in like a fifteen-minute period with no snow in it, NOT that it wouldn't snow at all anymore. I wasn't really trying to be negative at all; I was merely commenting on the fact that at that time, I was outside of the radar-indicated snow zone but it was still snowing, and that it might cease snowing any minute. Again, retrospectively, I see that my original comment was worded like sh*t, so my bad for the misunderstanding.

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Will be very curious to see what LOT has to say about the lake effect situation.  It's still pretty difficult to pick out the most favored area, imo.  Maybe it ends up being more of a spread around thing with no one particular area racking up the totals.  Then again, maybe it stalls somewhere.  If there's going to be a prolonged stall, I think the area more at risk for it would be in Indiana than Illinois.    

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21 minutes ago, ChiTownStorm11 said:

Getting absolutely crushed here in Champaign.

Yea they really got in a sweet spot north of rain snow line. Def could over perform. Getting some nice bands here now but all the really heavy stuff is more south and east. Wish this was crawling like the last storm. Ha

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